The energy sector was certainly a bargain in January, but no one
really knows where oil will be around Christmas. While we may have already
seen the bottom, stock prices are not the bargain they were.
are other plays. Think electric vehicles and even driverless cars. Find
what's undervalued now and get in on some of the games that will dictate
glorious future wealth.
In an exclusive interview,
Oilprice.com talked to Mike "Mish"
Shedlock, an award-winning economic commentator who has been providing
millions of readers with investment advice for years.
interview, Mish discusses:
• The oil bounce • The confluence of
events that brought oil down • The manufacturing recession • The
battery revolution • Lithium, EVs, and driverless cars •
Demographics • Opportunities in beaten up stocks, bios, potash •
Global opportunities, Brazil, Russia, Japan
Oilprice.com: What do
you see as being next for oil prices? Is the rally here to stay? Where do
you see oil prices at Christmas?
Mish: I certainly don't know, and
no one else does either.
Early this year, many resource plays were
massively undervalued and priced for possible bankruptcy. Had I known the
precise timing, I would have sold everything 2-3 years ago and bought in
My intent was to buy a lot of energy companies when oil
dropped into the 30s. I didn't. Instead, gold miners and other resources
were a bargain at the same time. I did pick up more of those.
regards to oil, there are a lot of companies still going bankrupt. With
the slowing global economy, oil prices may simply level off here. I am
inclined to think that the bottom may be in, but one never knows with
these political pushes against petroleum and fossil fuels.
interesting that when oil fell from $100 to $80 to $70 to $60, people kept
saying the bottom was in, every time oil bounced a few bucks.
was thinking $35-45. Oil went even lower.
Then when oil broke $30,
people threw in the towel. Writers started talking about oil in the teens!
The same thing happened in gold. When gold fell from $1,900 to
$1,050 people started talking about gold in the $600 range again.
Neither oil nor is gold is going to zero.
The best energy plays
are companies that have little debt and are profitable at or near current
levels. They will survive another trip south in oil prices. Debt leveraged
companies may not.
Oilprice.com: Do you buy into the theory that
Saudi Arabia has been pursuing a strategy to bankrupt the U.S. energy
sector and maintain its own market share?
Mish: No. We had a
confluence of numerous things made for a "perfect storm" in the oil
1. The Fed drove down interest rates to ridiculously low
levels. 2. Companies saw an opportunity to get cheap financing and they
got it. 3. Extraction technology improved. 4. President Obama
worked out a deal with Iran to end the embargo. This added to global oil
supply. 5. Cash strapped Russia pumped more oil to support its economy
in the wake of EU and US sanctions. 6. Growth in China slowed.
Drill baby drill!
The U.S. drilled like mad and so did everyone
Despite the crash in oil, production in the U.S. dropped
only 6 percent, maybe 8 percent. So we have huge numbers of bankruptcies
already filed and pending, and companies are struggling—yet, they are all
The Fed kept these companies alive artificially.
Oilprice.com: What do you see happening at the June OPEC meeting?
Mish: A lot of talk and nothing else. We see the same thing with
trade discussions. Every year there are two rounds of trade discussions
and nothing ever happens.
Even the Trans-Pacific-Partnership
(TPP), looks like its dying on the vine. It will die if Trump is elected,
maybe even if Clinton is. She stated on 45 occasions while in office that
she was for it. Now, she isn't.
TPP is a massive monstrosity, all
done in secret. Few have read it outside those working on the deal. Only
20% of it relates to trade.
I believe a proper trade agreement
would be to drop all tariffs and stop all subsidies regardless of what
anyone else did.
Any country that did that would see investment
pour in. But no one wants to try that. Everyone claims they are for free
trade except when it hurts their exports.
So here we are. This is
another one of those "we have to pass the bill to find out what's in it
kind of things." No thanks!
I have written about the TPP many
times, here's a pair of them:
Oilprice.com: As you've
seen over the last few weeks we've seen an increase in demand and many
supply outages. Is this the end of the glut or will it hang over the
market for a while?
Mish: Supply will hang over the market for a
long time to come. China is slowing way more than people realize. What
little rebound there was in Europe appears to be on its last legs.
The oil market crashed to take falling demand into consideration,
likely overshooting. The rebound is to a more natural level. If I had to
guess a range, I would say a $35-$45 range. It could be higher. I have no
bets on it.
Oilprice.com: Goldman Sachs' top-end estimate is $60
or above. How would that impact the economy?
Mish: Let's approach
that question from the opposite direction.
All the people who said
that falling and low oil prices are "unambiguously good for the economy"
If oil rebounds to $65, then maybe my idea that the
global economy is slowing rapidly is wrong.
But $65 or higher
could also happen with some sort of war-caused supply squeeze in the
Middle East or if OPEC and Russia voluntarily made huge cuts in
In general, if oil is going up in the absence of a
supply shock, then it usually means the global economy is improving.
The dip below $30 was likely an overshoot. If so, the subsequent
rebound to the mid-$40s was just a bottoming event. Judgments need to be
based on what happens next, not a rebound from the depths of hell.
Europe has huge migration problems and voters are fed up. You see it
in the rise of some fringe parties all across Europe.
In the U.S.,
Donald Trump beat all expectations. If the economy was really doing well,
people would not be so angry everywhere you look.
How big of a stimulus do you think low oil prices have had on the economy?
Mish: At best, little to none, and more likely negative. The
economists thought that people would go and spend all their gasoline
savings on consumer goods but that didn't happen.
savings rate rose. People did spend more on rising rents and rising
healthcare costs, not where the Fed wanted consumers to spend.
lost a lot of high paying jobs in the energy sector and some of the local
economies are struggling.
The net effect of all of this was
certainly negative as it played out. Last month, we saw a good report or
two in manufacturing, but they went down again this month. Manufacturing
is undoubtedly still in a recession.
Oilprice.com: What about
renewables, and particularly, battery technology? If battery technology
improves rapidly, and the driverless cars accelerates, would oil be hit
Mish: It could, but the timeline is in question. I don't
think a massive switch to batteries will happen any time soon in most
There are plenty of variables here and more
questions than answers—especially when it comes to time frame and
Are people going to stop buying cars and go to
Uber? Are those cars going to be battery, gasoline, or hybrids of some
sort? I don't know.
I propose a phased progression.
long haul truck driver jobs will vanish, then taxi driver jobs will
When the average person in the city says "I don't need my
own car anymore" remains to be seen.
Oilprice.com: How do
demographics fit into the picture?
millennials don't see things the same way as the boomers do.
Millennials don't care much about cars - they're content to do other
things that aren't as energy intensive as their parents did. They don't
want big houses as they've seen their parents lose houses to debt. They
live with parents and don't eat out as much. This all cuts into demand
So does a mountain of debt. Yet the economists are still
trying to figure out why the economy is growing slowly.
As of March 31, 2016, total household indebtedness was $12.25 trillion, a
$136 billion (1.1%) increase from the fourth quarter of 2015. Overall
household debt remains 3.3% below its 2008 Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.
Check out the trend in mortgage debt vs. the trend in student loan debt.
The two items are not unrelated.
Household formation is low because
of student debt, boomer demographics, and changing attitudes of millennials.
Oilprice.com: Outside of gold, where do you see undervalued
Mike Shedlock: I like Lithium but some of the plays in
that space have had a big run-up.
There could be a pullback. In
terms of market timing batteries, three to four years away may as well be
light-years from now. The markets typically don't care much about things
more than a year away.
I am in some tiny companies. And I am willing
to be patient. My intention is to hold them until I think they have met
I am in a couple of biotech plays. I like Sarepta
(SRPT), but pull up a chart. Volatile does not begin to describe the
gyrations. I caught an entry in the teens. The next day it fell to $8.
Earlier this year it was at $38.
This volatility is a sad
testimonial to the power of the FDA.
Doug Casey calls the FDA the
"Federal Death Agency".
Sarepta has a drug for MD that patients say
works, but the FDA says doesn't.
A Group of Senators Wrote the FDA seeking approval. Janet Woodcock, who
heads the FDA Center for Drug Evaluation and Research said to an overflow
crowd that included hundreds of kids in wheelchairs "It's possible to reach
different conclusions based on the data presented today … Failing to approve
a drug that actually works in devastating diseases — these consequences are
This play could easily double or halve depending on the
next "Federal Death Agency" review. I make no recommendation, but my point
First, look outside the box for opportunities. The FDA
created a panic opportunity when it issued a preliminary ruling against the
drug. A final ruling is expected later this month.
Second, I wanted
to mention the perverse influence of the FDA approving drugs that have
serious side effects and not approving one where an overflow crowd of
parents turned up begging the FDA to approve something that they believe
does, especially when there have been no serious side effects.
key is not to buy into blind plunges, but rather to see if unexpected news
creates a favorable opportunity.
From a Libertarian standpoint, the
decision on Sarepta was pure nonsense.
about cobalt and other resources?
Mike Shedlock: I haven't looked at
cobalt, but perhaps I should. I am in a Potash play now.
the kind of plays that aren't on mainstream media radar. It takes a bit of
research. The smaller companies are kind of like lottery tickets. They are
also similar to cheap options that don't expire.
If you don't put a
lot on these plays, and can take a bit of volatility, you only have to be
right on one in 10.
Oilprice.com: How close are we getting to a real
breakout with autonomous trucking, which you've written about recently?
They've been testing
driverless trucks in Nevada without a backup driver. The "Otto" approach is
a little different: They retro-fit existing trucks with their technology.
The clincher is that "Otto" will soon be commercially ready.
bumped up my timeline for driverless trucks from 2020 to 2019. I now expect
we will lose millions of jobs by 2022 instead of 2024.
Do you see the EV revolution taking place sooner than many are projecting?
Mike Shedlock: I do. I bought a couple of lithium stocks - one on
the Toronto exchange and one here in the U.S. But yes, I believe people need
to look outside of gold and energy as to how this will take hold.
opinion on these things is if it takes a government subsidy to work then it
doesn't work. And we are not seeing subsidies going into this industry
(unlike wind for example).
The free market seems to be adapting on
its own to deal with emission issues.
Oilprice.com: What about
Mish: Brazil is going through huge turmoil
right now. When the political dust settles in Brazil there will be
Why buy a general basket of stocks in the U.S. when
Median PEs are near the highest ever?
I like Russia and Japan. With
Japan, one needs to think about Yen hedging. Who knows what crazy thing Abe
Think globally! But be prepared for a currency crisis.
Don't give up your gold.