Al-Jazeerah: Cross-Cultural Understanding
Opinion Editorials, January 2011
More Israeli Game Theory Warfare?
Al-Jazeerah, CCUN, January 10, 2011
“The United States is the real victim of WikiLeaks. It’s an action aimed at discrediting them.” Franco Frattini, Foreign Minister of Italy
The impact of the WikiLeaks release of diplomatic cables fits the behavior profile of those well versed in game theory warfare.
When Israeli mathematician Robert J. Aumann received the 2005 Nobel Prize in economic science for his work on game theory, he conceded, “the entire school of thought that we have developed here in Israel” has turned “Israel into the leading authority in this field.”
The candor of this Israeli-American offered a rare insight into an enclave long known for waging war from the shadows. Israel’s most notable success to date was “fixing” the intelligence that induced the U.S. to invade Iraq in pursuit of a geopolitical agenda long sought by Tel Aviv
When waging intelligence wars, timing is often the critical factor for game-theory war planners. The outcome of the WikiLeaks release suggests a psy-ops directed at the U.S.
Why now? Tel Aviv was feeling pressure to end its six-decade occupation of Palestine. With this release, its foot-dragging on the peace process was displaced with talk of an attack on Iran.
While the U.S. bore the brunt of the damage, the target was global public opinion. To maintain the plausibility of The Clash of Civilizations, a focus must be maintained on Iran as a credible Evil Doer.
With fast-emerging transparency, Israel and pro-Israelis have been identified as the source of the intelligence that took coalition forces to war in Iraq. Thus the need to shift attention off Tel Aviv.
WikiLeaks may yet succeed in that mission.
Game theory war planning aims to create outcomes that are predictable—within an acceptable range of probabilities. That’s why Israeli war planners focus on gaining traction for a plausible narrative and then advancing that storyline step by gradual step.
For the Zionist state to succeed with its expansionist agenda, Iran must remain at center stage as an essential villain in a geopolitical morality play pitting the West against Islamo Fascists.
To displace facts with false beliefs—as with belief in the intelligence that induced the invasion of Iraq—momentum must be maintained for the storyline. Lose the plot (The Clash) and peace might break out. And those deceived may identify the deceiver.
Thus the timing of this latest WikiLeaks release. Its goal: to have us believe that it is not Tel Aviv but Washington that is the forefront of geopolitical duplicity and a source of Evil Doing.
Intelligence wars rely on mathematical models to anticipate the response of those targeted. With game theory algorithms, reactions become foreseeable—within an acceptable range of probabilities.
Control enough of the variables and outcomes become a mathematical inevitability.
The WikiLeaks Motive
Was the reaction to this latest WikiLeaks foreseeable? With exquisite timing, the U.S. was discredited with an array of revelations that called into question U.S. motives and put in jeopardy U.S. relations worldwide.
As the Italian Foreign Minister summarized: “The news released by WikiLeaks will change diplomatic relations between countries.”
The hard-earned trust of the Pakistanis disappeared overnight. Attempts to engage Iran were set back. The overall effect advanced The Clash storyline. If Washington could so badly misread North Korean intentions, then why is the U.S. to be trusted when it comes to a nuclear Iran?
This Wiki-catalyzed storyline pushed Israel off the front page in favor of Iran.
Even U.S. detainees at Guantanamo are again at issue, reigniting that shameful spectacle as a provocation for extremism and terror. U.S. diplomats will now be suspected of spying and lying. What nation can now trust Americans to maintain confidences?
In short, the risks increased for everyone.
Should Israel launch an attack on Iran, Tel Aviv can cite WikiLeaks as its rationale. Though an attack would be calamitous from a human, economic and financial perspective, even that foreseeable outcome would be dwarfed by the enduring hatred that would ensue.
That too is foreseeable—from a game theory perspective of those marketing The Clash.
The effect of the U.S. invasion of Iraq was predictable. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia foresaw it, noting simply that the U.S. invasion would “give Iraq to Iran as a gift on a golden platter.”
With the elimination of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein, the numerically dominant Shiites of Iraq were drawn into the political orbit of the Shiite-dominant Iran.
Game theorists focus their manipulation of affairs on their control of key variables. Then events take on a life all their own. The impact of this discrediting release was wide-ranging and fully foreseeable.
A Mossad case officer explained Israel’s success at waging war by way of deception: “Once the orchestra starts to play, we just hum along.”
These, after all, are the leading authorities in the field.
4 Responses to “WikiLeaks – More Israeli Game Theory Warfare?”
Was the “American Public” really in any danger of putting together the “Iraq intelligence failure” with Israel? From whom would they hear that connection? No major US media outlet would ever give them that impression.
Only if Israel lost control of US-Middle East politics a would a “weaker” US be good for Israel; they have not. Obama is no “threat” to Israel; the comment of the new Republi-con Majority leader is just political slight of hand to create the illusion of a difference between the parties.
I think there is something else going on here.
The Israeli propaganda front Wikipedia (founders Jimmy Wales, Larry Sanger and senior editor David Miller, etc.) – had a preview of the new Wikileaks files on the US-Turkish relations before they were made public on Sunday.
As expected – the new secret revelations have no new information than what we have already been told by the Zionist mainstream media. Benji Netanyahu admitted that his government was already aware of the contents of the leaks. On November 29, 2010 – Fox News boasted: “All in all, WikiLeaks did not succeed in penetrating the most sensitive channels of U.S.-Israel relations”.
This proves once again that the new Wikileaks information, most probably stolen by the agents of the powerful Israel Lobby (AIPAC) – and like the previous one, is meant to isolate United States from the rest of the world and create further division among Israel’s neighboring countries – which will make it more easy for the Zionist regime to control every US move.
The confidential memo leaked by Wikipedia – articulates that Turkey foreign policy (tilted towards its Islamic roots) has “Rolls Royce ambitions but Rover resources.” The authors like the Israeli leaders – are particularly paranoid of Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, for his personal religious leanings and for guiding Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle Eastern countries and Palestinian resistance – which the Zionist regime considers pro-Iranian and anti-Israel.
“Major challenges with us in the coming months include the direction of Turkish-Israeli relations, the fate of the Protocols with Armenia, and the Turkish posture vis–vis Iran,” says the memo.
The Wikileaks has claimed that Saudi Arabian King Abdullah had “repeatedly urged United States to attack Iran’s nuclear program” and China directed cyberattacks on the United States. It has also claimed that the Rahbar (Spiritual Leader) Ayatullah Ali Khamenei is suffering from cancer. The Zionazi dogs had similar prediction about Imam Khomeini in the 1980s, claiming that due to his advanced age he would not be able to stabilize the Islamic Revolution.
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, dismissed the documents as “worthless mischief” which would not affect Tehran’s relations with its Arab neighbours, exposed as having pressed for a US military strike against its nuclear sites.
According to Wikileaks, though Turkey is armed by the US – the great majority of Turks have negative views of NATO. However, the authors suggest that Turkey needs to accept the US and NATO’s leadership (aka submission to Israel) to extinguish fires in its backyard (Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan).
“Even AKP leaders know that much of their allure or “wasta” in the Middle East and elsewhere stems from their privileged position in key Western clubs,” says the document.
The authors acknowledge the AKP’s impressive efforts to resolve Turkey’s old festering conflicts with Cyprus, Baghdad, Erbil and Syria. As result, Turkey has gained leverage to tackle regional problems from Lebanon to Iran. However, Turkey’s “rapprochement with Syria has not really produced any Syrian “flip” away from Iran“.
Nathan Guttman wrote about the “Jewish Vengeance” in the oldest Jewish daily FORWARD (June 23, 2010):
“The American Israel Public Affairs Committee distributed an e-mail promoting a video depicting Erdogan alongside Ahmadinejad and Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad as “The Three Terrors,” a takeoff on the famous Three Tenors — Domingo, Pavarotti and Carreras.
But speaking stronger than parodies and damning reports was the cold shoulder that Jewish groups turned to Turkish officials who were trying to reach out. Representatives of most major Jewish organizations were invited to a June 16 meeting with members of a senior Turkish delegation visiting Washington. Only one group, the American Jewish Committee, showed up. AIPAC, the Anti-Defamation League and the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs — all groups that in the past went to great lengths to push a pro-Turkish agenda on Capitol Hill — chose not to attend.”
The new release of the spooky Wikileaks files on Sunday (it’s reported that 3rd installment is due to be released in the near future) – how the US and its allies have been discussing military attacks and covert activities to bring a pro-Israel regime-change in Tehran.
On November 4, 1979 – a group of Iranian students stormed the US Embassy in Tehran and detained its occupants for allegedly conspiring against the Iranian nation under Reza Shah’s regime and to undo the Islamic Revolution (1979) against the former pro-USrael regime. After two weeks, the students released all the non-American, female and staff-members belonging to US minorities – calling them fellow victims of US imperialism. However, 52 US embassy staff members were kept hold-in inside the Embassy building. Later, Canadian Ambassador in Iran, Kenneth Taylor (a CIA operative) smuggled six of those captive Americans on faked Canadian passports.
The so-called “hostage” saga began when Jimmy Carter’s administration allowed the deposed Shah to seek assylum in the US on ‘medical reasons’. The ‘hostage’ affair became a national pride on both sides when Jimmy Carter after failing to get the American release after usual military threats and UNSC resolution – ordered a disastrous military rescue, code name, Operation Eagle Claw, on April 24, 1980, in which ten US military personnel died as result of desert storm even without the knowledge of Iranian airforce.
Two Zionists who campaigned for sheltering the deposed Shah of Iran and reinstate him for the second time (first Shah was reinstated by a CIA-funded ‘Green Revolution’ in 1953) – were billionaire David Rockefeller and Jewish US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
After. 444 days all the Americans inside the embassy were released on US President Ronald Reagan’s promise to Algerian negotiators that he will release US$14 billion frozen assests in exchange – a promise which remains to be fulfilled till today.
American film-maker, television producer and blogger , Danny Schechter, who has just returned from Iran – wrote at the Global Research website (November 29, 2010):
We are still living with the consequences, when wages declined, unions were broken, and military spending escalated. Reagan invaded Grenada and Beirut where the killings of hundreds of US soldiers sparked what we now label a War on Terror and which Iranians see as a “Clash of Civilizations.”
The despotic Shah, our faithful servant for so many years, was driven from power by a popular revolt with the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini soon becoming the man we loved to hate.
Now, thirty plus years later, I am standing in front of what was once our Embassy surrounded today by well-kept lawns as it was then.
It is as if the past is never past, with so many ghosts still around.
The tragedy is that polarization between our two countries remains symbolized by what is now a very politicized museum with photos of the activists who crawled through a basement window and tunnel to take it over. They were demanding the return of the Shah to stand trial. They were protesting US interference in their internal affairs.
I didn’t remember that eight hostages -women and black employees — were released by Khomeini as a gesture. He urged the black men to return home and carry on the work of our most famous Muslim martyr, Molcom X. Malcolm was one of the Americans they admired.
The students found a secret document with a floor plan of the Ayatollah’s residence and other artifacts of CIA espionage including guns and coding machines.
As the students muscled their way into the Embassy back then, US officials were busy destroying documents, burning them in the basement, throwing them into chemical vats that turned paper into powder, and feeding them into huge industrial-strength shredders. I saw the machines.
They managed to keep the activists at bay for three hours while destroying sensitive and potentially embarrassing data before surrendering.
What they didn’t count on was that scores of students would spend weeks patiently and systematically piecing the shreds together, literally ironing and weaving the fragments into readable prose. They reconstructed the destroyed documents and published them in scores of books that topped the best-seller list in Iran, if there was one.
The late Bill Worthy, a legendary African American journalist, brought some of the books back to Boston in 1980 only to have them confiscated at the airport where he was threatened with prosecution.
Most Americans know little of Iran’s 2500 year history, its proud culture or the role played by the CIA in toppling the democratically elected the Mosaddegh government in l953 that wanted to nationalize the country’s oil instead of being forced to allow the West to exploit it. (The Ayatollah Khomeini referenced this event when he told the US: “You have no right to complain, because you took our whole country hostage in 1953.”) There is no evidence that the Ayatollah organized the Embassy takeover.
We are doing all we can to block Iranian nuclear ambitions. There are legitimate non-fiction fears of a new war against Iran, another no-win conflict that will cause more death and sap more treasure. The neo-cons are busy at work lobbying for just such a war, eager to replicate their “heroic victory” over Iraq. They are playing the fear card with lots of covert lobbying from Israel that claims Iran represents an “existential” threat.
To me, the arrogant right-wing politicians and propagandists in Israel are a far more dangerous threat to any prospects for peace. Successive American Administrations, like the current one, shovels sheckels at them, appeasing their contempt and occupation of Palestinians.
The world mocks dogmatic believers in the Koran while fanatical Torah worshippers have a free pass to practice hatred.
Please see the January/February 2011 issue of Washington Report on the Middle East Affairs, (WRMEA), Pages 12 through 15, which reveals what Wikileaks may be doing to help Israel, and make the U.S. look like the “bad guy.
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