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Pentagon Ignored CIA Warnings
on Irregulars WASHINGTON, 28 March 2003 — Intelligence analysts at the CIA and
Pentagon warned the Bush administration that US troops would face
significant resistance from Iraqi irregular forces employing guerrilla
tactics, but those views haven’t been adequately reflected in the
administration’s public predictions about how difficult a war might go,
according to current and former intelligence officials. CIA analysts
“thought there was a good chance we would be forced to fight our way
through everything,’’ said one intelligence official who sat in on
many briefings. “They were much more cautious about it being an easy
situation.’’ With US and British troops being forced to defend a more than 200-mile
supply line from the Kuwaiti border to US troops 50 miles from Baghdad and
to fend off small-scale attacks by the Iraqi irregular forces, analysts at
the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency are complaining that their
reports would be softened as they moved to the White House. “The caveats
would be dropped and the edges filed off,’’ the intelligence official
said. “The intelligence we gathered before the war accurately reflected
what the troops are seeing out there now,’’ one military intelligence
official said. “The question is whether the war planners and
policy-makers took adequate notice of it in preparing the plan.’’ At
least one prewar intelligence analysis described potential threats of
Iraqi irregular forces mining harbors, planting bombs and firing at troops
while disguised in civilian clothes, according to one senior intelligence
official. A CIA spokesman said the intelligence agencies presented President Bush
and senior national security officials with “the full debate,’’
including a National Intelligence Estimate that analyzed the scenarios
that US forces would likely encounter during a war. “Senior intelligence
officials have all had their say,’’ the spokesman said. One senior administration official said the consensus among
intelligence agencies is that Saddam’s Fedayeen, a Baath Party militia
commanded by President Saddam Hussein’s son, Uday, numbers about 25,000
members. The force has led a series of guerrilla-style attacks on US and
British forces in southern Iraq cities. The official said the paramilitary force is viewed as a potential
“major annoyance’’ to the US war plan at the moment, but one that
could expand into a significant problem. Because US and other foreign
media have heavily reported the attacks, the official said, “they could
become a major factor in the public relations battle during these early
days of the war.’’ “We look at them as one of Saddam Hussein’s tools, particularly in
his trying to lure us into urban warfare,’’ one senior intelligence
official said Wednesday. But he added that they could become more
important than they are “if the media turns them into the equivalent of
the black pajama Viet Cong,’’ referring to the guerrilla force that
caused many US casualties in the Vietnam War. That view was echoed at the Pentagon on Wednesday by Maj. Gen. Stanley
McChrystal, who, when asked about the firefights involving the Fedayeen,
described them as “fairly limited incidents (that) take on a greater
perceived value than they are.’’ The Fedayeen, also known as “martyrs of Saddam’’ or “men of
sacrifice,’’ were organized in 1995 by Uday Hussein. In addition to
the paramilitary force, there are an additional 3,000 in a reserve made up
of Baath Party members and some Iraqi journalists, according to an
intelligence official. ‘’(Policy-makers) were told the Fedayeen would fight more
fanatically than regular army forces, using conventional or unconventional
means,’’ one analyst said Wednesday. “We did not predict the
notoriety they have already achieved.’’ Pentagon spokesmen struggled Wednesday to deal with the media focus on
the irregular forces. Victoria Clarke, the Pentagon’s chief spokeswoman,
described them as “thugs’’ who “have done extraordinary things
which go outside all laws and norms.’’ If captured, she said, they
would be treated as war criminals. Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, deputy director of operations for the US
Central Command, which is running the war, described the activities of the
Fedayeen who operate either in or out of uniform as “more akin to the
behaviors of global terrorists.’’ CIA and Pentagon analysts disagree about how long the Fedayeen and
other elite units, such as the 15,000 members of the Special Republican
Guard and the Special Security Organization, another elite force of 10,000
that enforces Baath Party orders, would continue to fight. CIA analysts believe these groups will fight to the end, whether Saddam
is alive or not. “This is about surviving for them,’’ said one
former senior Iraqi analyst who still consults with the Pentagon. “A
large percent of them acted like secret police and fear what the Americans
would do with them.’’
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