Message of the Failed Coup 29 July 2003

Opinion, July 2003, www.aljazeerah.info

Message of the Failed Coup

Arab News, 29 July 2003

The Philippines with its various insurgencies is not the most stable country on earth, but the brief mutiny in Manila which ended without a shot on Sunday shows that it is far more stable than some might imagine. Matters would have been serious if the rebels had won support within the army. They did not. Nor did they attract support from ordinary Filipinos. That says much about the Philippines.

Having failed to deliver on the economy, stem crime or end Muslim and communist rebellions, President Gloria Arroyo’s government is far from popular; if she were to stand in an election tomorrow she would lose. Yet no one rushed onto the streets supporting the rebels’ allegations of government corruption and demanding that she resign. Whether that is because she is not going to stand for re-election next year and everyone is content to wait till then to decide in a proper manner who should replace her, or because the rebels were so obviously supporters of disgraced former President Joseph Estrada, is hard to tell — probably both. But what is important is that there is no support for insurrection or revolution.

As for the reaction on the country’s financial markets — shares tumbling and the peso dropping — it is a typical traders’ response. They are understandably worried about damage to the Philippines’ reputation as a safe place to invest. But they ought to take heart from the fact that the attempt failed with a whimper. That should send a very positive message abroad; any collateral economic damage should therefore be short-lived.

But there is one worrying aspect to this insurrection. The arrest of Ramon Cardenas, a close aide of Estrada and junior minister in his government, and the reported discovery at his home of weapons and red arm bands like those worn by the rebel soldiers indicates that this was not purely a case of a few disgruntled soldiers trying to take the law into their own hands. There has been a wider conspiracy; it may even have involved Estrada himself, who has consistently refused to accept that he is no longer president.

Nonetheless, this is no warning of instability to come. President Arroyo would be wise to heed the subtext to the soldiers’ discontent — the need to cut crime and improve the economy is urgent — but the military should not be seen as a threat. Times have moved on since the 1989 coup attempt, when soldiers took over the same area in Manila’s financial heartland for a whole week. The days of military coups are over. The Filipino people would not allow it; the world would not allow it. The Filipino Army understands it. It has become depoliticized. It would take political corruption and human rights abuses on a massive scale to change that.

Earth, a planet hungry for peace

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers in the West Bank (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).