Jan 31, 2003             Opinion Editorials                   http://www.aljazeerah.info                                    

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European Backing for Bush
Arab News, 31 January 2003
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It is no news that Europe is divided over Iraq. But while everyone thought the divide was between the UK and the rest, with Tony Blair playing the lonely role of President Bush’s poodle, it is France and Germany with their forceful opposition to Washington’s Iraqi policy who are now out on a limb.

Yesterday’s joint call by the prime ministers of UK, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic for a united front against Saddam Hussein is a deliberate snub to the French and Germans. The statement may not be the full backing for war that President Bush would like, but in calling Saddam Hussein a threat to world security and saying that the UN’s credibility is at stake if it does not ensure he complies in full with its resolution on disarmament, the eight governments have sent a clear signal that they side with Washington.

It will be music to Bush’s ears. That five members of the EU and three soon-to-be members should so publicly distance themselves from France and Germany will be seized upon as an endorsement of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s dismissal of the two last week as being “old Europe”. The fact that eight other EU premiers did not sign the statement, although presumably some if not all must have been asked, will be ignored.

Rumsfeld’s remark infuriated the French and Germans but he is clearly not alone in thinking that they are no longer the controlling force in Europe, that with the EU’s expansion other voices have to be heard. This statement was a blunt warning to Paris and Berlin that they must not assume that between them they can dictate Europe’s policies. Indeed, it was as much about cutting President Jacques Chirac and Chancellor Helmut Schroeder down to size as it was support for the US. Even those who did not sign it are resentful of Franco-German dominance.

But support — strong support — it is. The timing was deliberate too, coming just a day before Prime Minister Blair meets with Bush in as already been dubbed a council of war. One question that will be on many people’s lips is whether this was Blair’s doing. The document has his imprint on it — and he has been in close touch with the Spanish and Italians among others in recent days.

As far as the Americans are concerned, they now have, not one, but lots of allies against Iraq — and they are countries that American public opinion is well acquainted with. That is bound to ease the domestic pressure on the Bush administration to think twice about attacking Iraq. American public opinion is not worried about the need for a UN go-ahead to attack Iraq — the UN is not that highly regarded in the US. Its one reservation, however, is that the US must not go it alone, that the invasion force must be multilateral.

Now the Bush administration can claim that Europe backs him. The fact that France and Germany do not can now be dismissed on the grounds that other Europeans regard them as unrepresentative.

They are going to use this to the full.


 

 


 

 

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Jordanian Backing for Bush: Strategic choice
By Amir Taheri, Arab News Staff, 1/31/03

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Grim but determined. This was the impression that Jordan’s King Abdallah II gave the other day during an informal breakfast with some journalists at Davos, Switzerland.

“It would take a miracle to prevent war, now,” the king said. As a military man he knows that one cannot bring a quarter of a million troops from the other side of the world and then take them back without having changed the status quo. “Whatever we might do to prevent war may now prove to be too little, too late,” he said.

Apart from Iraq itself, no country is likely to be as affected by the looming war than Jordan. Jordan gets all of its oil needs, some 90,000 barrels a day, from Iraq at cut-rate prices. It also earns almost $1 billion a year from exports and transit rights to Iraq. Jordan is also home to an estimated 400,000 Iraqis whose lives are bound to change whatever the outcome of the war.

It is obvious that the young king has pondered his options with care.

One option was to imitate his late father, King Hussein, and publicly stand on the side of Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein. But the young king knows that it took Jordan five difficult years before it repaired the damage done to its relations with the United States, and its moderate Arab allies, in the 1990s.

That option is even less attractive for another reason. In 1991 when King Hussein sided with Iraq there was no question of a regime change in Iraq. Thus the late king could partly compensate his losses on the side of the Americans, and the moderate Arabs, by obtaining concessions from the Iraqi leader. This time, if there is war, it will not end until there is a new regime in Baghdad. There is, therefore, no reason why Jordan should back a horse that is sure to lose.

The second option was for Jordan to play a double game; that is to say be against the war in public but actively take part in it behind the scenes.

That option, too, was unattractive for two reasons. First, something like taking part in a war, in one way or another, cannot be kept secret for long. At the same time, the eventual victor is unlikely to respect an ally who tried to hedge its bets.

Anyone who watched the Jordanian king at Davos these past few days would notice the popularity he enjoys within the global elite. “ From out point of view, he is the perfect Muslim head of state,” says Professor Karl Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum. Not surprisingly, the young king and his wife, Queen Rania, have become permanent features of the forum and presented as “representatives of the Muslim world.” In fact, Queen Rania has just been named a member of the permanent council of the forum.

The king has chosen what he regards as the best option not only for Jordan but also for the Arabs as a whole. If and, as it now seems when, the war comes, the Hashemite kingdom will be on the side of the US-led coalition.

In exchange, Jordan seeks more than mere kudos in Washington. The US has already arranged for Kuwait to supply Jordan with the oil it needs to replace the Iraqi supplies that might be cut off for a while. Washington has also increased its military aid for this year, from $75 to $450 million. In addition, agreement has been reached in principle to compensate Jordan for losses it might sustain for the duration of the campaign to change the Iraqi regime.

Jordan is demanding more, especially in political terms. It wants to have a say in shaping the future regime in Baghdad. The king expects the Americans to establish military rule for a maximum of two years during which Iraqi political parties and personalities will prepare the draft of a new constitution.

The king wants the option of restoring monarchy in Baghdad to be one of the choices offered to the Iraqi people in a constitutional referendum. The hope is that, if the Iraqis vote for restoration, a member of the Hashemite family will be placed on the throne. But even if monarchy is not restored, it is clear that the future Iraqi regime would regard Jordan as its closest friend and ally, if only because it is one of the few Arab states to take side in favor of change in Baghdad.

But, perhaps, the biggest concession that Jordan appears to have obtained from Washington, in exchange for its support, is a promise to work for the establishment of a Palestinian state by the end of 2005.

The king has hammered in one key message: The new Middle East, of which President George W. Bush has been talking, will not be possible without a Palestinian state on the map.

Jordan’s choice may draw the ire of self-styled Pan-Arabists. But the tiny desert kingdom is practicing the only version of power politics it is capable of. It has chosen to strengthen its strategic alliance with the United States and Britain. It has fully adopted the capitalist ideology, complete with membership of the World Trade Organization, and seems irrevocably committed to developing a Western-style political system.

Throughout the forum, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher acted as a passionate defender of the United States at a time that it seemed to be everyone’s favorite punching bag. In exchange the kingdom hopes to emerge from the coming Iraq war, if not with all the gains it hopes for, at least without big losses

 

 

 


 

 

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War on Iraq and the Palestinians

Daoud Kuttab

Jordan Times, 1/31/03

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THE CONFLICT between the United States and Iraq has left a dark cloud over the Middle East in general and on Palestine in particular.

The fear among Palestinians regarding war in Iraq stems from a number of reasons: Palestinians are concerned that the Israeli government would use the cover of war to carry out large-scale repressive acts against Palestinians. For the past two years, Israel has not been able to win its battle with Palestinians. Every attempt at deterring Palestinians has failed. Israeli military strategists think that in order to reach the elusive military victory over Palestinians, much more force and repression is needed.

Some Israelis believe that part of the reason Israel has failed so far to crush the Palestinian resistance is the perceived opposition of the international community, especially the US. Although Israel has been very tough with the Palestinians, it is believed that it has not let the army completely free to crush the Palestinians because of the fear that such strong, violent, reaction to Palestinians might harm the US' war on Iraq, as it will further anger Arab and Muslim populations.

War on Iraq would be a perfect excuse to finish off the Intifada, because the world will be too busy dealing with Iraq.

The real nightmare of Palestinians, however, is not limited to Israel's increased repression, but to the fact that the right-wing government in Israel might use the cover of war to carry out large-scale transfer of Palestinians. Those who hold this theory believe that in the long run, there is no way to defeat the Palestinians in the demographic war unless large number of Palestinians are deported from the areas under Israeli control. Proponents of this theory think that if Israel can succeed in transferring a large number of Palestinians, it will no longer have to accept a Palestinian state but will be able to annex Palestinian territory and integrate any small Palestinian minority that might be left to Israel. Although this option is often talked about in Arab circles, most analysts doubt its feasibility. Palestinians who have seen the result of the immigration of their brethren in the 1948 and 1967 wars are clearly not going to leave of their own free will.

This means that Israel will have to violently cleanse Palestine of its Arab inhabitants. This seems highly unlikely in the presence of so many foreign diplomats, NGOs and the world press. The Israeli public itself will not tolerate such violent acts. The mere logistics of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians being forced out of their homes is not likely.

Some Palestinians worry that a short and successful US victory will further increase the power of the US as the only party in the Middle East, thus further strengthening the Israelis, politically, in their struggle with Palestinians. While Israeli leaders think that the removal of Saddam Hussein from the Middle East equation will eliminate a strong chip from the Palestinian negotiating hands, for Palestinians, whatever the result of a possible war in Iraq is, it will not change the basic contested issues. In fact, some Palestinians feel that the removal of the Iraqi crisis from the US and the international political discussions will make the solution of the Palestinian cause more urgent. Palestinians are not likely to capitulate politically even if Baghdad is ruled by a US general.

Naturally, the potential conflict with Iraq has many unknowns. It will make a big difference if the war is short or long; if the conflict ends in a coup or if there are street fights that last a long time. Another issue is the spillover of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis into the nearby countries. Such a mass movement of people fleeing the war in Iraq could have a destabilising result on many of the countries in the region. Such a deterioration of internal security in neighbouring countries could have long-term, far-reaching effects that could indirectly affect the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

 

 


 

 

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How to avoid assassination

Sigmund Siignatuur

Jordan Times, 1/31/03

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BY THIS, I don't mean bumping into some crazy person who is full of “crack”, can't stand waiting one more minute for the traffic light to turn green at the Khalda garage and suddenly takes his Kalashnikov from the dashboard, bursts onto the road and kills 65 passengers in their cars, while they are waiting patiently and quietly, reading “Al Rai”.

What I am referring to is the patient marksman who stalks the prey and dispatches it with a lethal bullet aimed at the temple. I don't think many of us think about it. After all, we are, on the whole, not very controversial or famous or in the public limelight. I, for example, write a weekly column and I don't even get any hate mail. I don't know if I feel a failure because I have not aroused the ire of my readership. I will give it some thought. I think my only enemy, an Icelandic musicologist, has probably softened her views about my supposed acidity.

Let us start off with high-risk jobs. Being a leader of a country or an influential politician will put you in the forefront of being extinguished. The world list of leadership and political heavyweights who have been killed is lengthy indeed.

Naturally, there are some leaders more at risk than others. Saddam Hussein is often reported as deploying look alikes to see how the crowd reacts. Many of the more controversial leaders do indeed have food tasters (too bad if your food taster is a would be assassin).

Even countries that are relatively peaceful and do not employ armour plated cars, or strike Apache helicopters and marksmen on every roof to protect their great ones, can be lulled into a false sense of security. In well pampered Sweden (where everyone is happy!), Olaf Palme (the former prime minister) was in the habit of walking to the cinema on a Friday night with his wife without a bodyguard. One night, a disgruntled citizen shot him dead. Why, we will never know.

The world has definitely changed for those who have ambitions at the very top of government. My friend tells me that Diefenbaker (in his early days), as Canadian PM, would leave the Canadian parliament, stroll down Bank Street, eat poutin (congealed gravy on French fries) on the sidewalk and talk to ordinary “Joe Soap” Canadians about hog problems in Manitoba, and there would never be any security in sight. After some time, he would wend his way home to his house on Sussex Drive.

The above is concerned with the assassin who feels wronged over policy — usually — but there are jobs that might involve death because of spurned adulation. If you intend to become a folk hero via singing, cinema or sport, then there is quite a high risk of assassination or at the very least harassment. Now, the people who lead us or are politically involved have enormous protection, but singers and wingers (who play for Barcelona) have to find their own security. They can afford it and often do have bodyguards and all the paraphernalia of high security apparatus. John Lennon was shot because of the delusions of a youth who connected Lennon to the book `Catcher in the Rye'. Rappers have died for — who knows. Others have attracted stalkers who refuse to let go of their obsession. Teenagers take these things to heart.

People can play both roles. Beckham is married to a “Spice Girl” and while he would not win any prizes for being able to become a lucid journalist and comment with sophistication on any of his games, he certainly is a “pin up” and deadly accurate with a football. He has had threats and he has a tremendous following.

These people (the heroes, not the assassins) have secretaries and they need them, lest deeply felt sentiments towards these people from their fans are not returned and this devotion becomes curdled and murder roams in the mind of the fan. Obsession is betrayed and the dagger is honed.

Now, there are jobs that can be reasonably anonymous. Being a diplomat may be thought to be rather nondescript (at the lower levels), but is fraught with danger. I know that the diplomat may live a privileged life, full of swimming pools, elegant suits, Pernod, canapÈs, gentle conversations and wondrous name dropping, but when the bomb explodes under the car, carnage is the result. Being a diplomat means that you represent your country, and even if you are doing something very creditable, like humanitarian help, you may have the taint of a disliked regime, if that is how your country is perceived in the county that you are accredited to. It is a luxurious life, but tinged with real danger. When you enter the diplomatic field you know this.

If we cast the net wider, we come to other people who work in countries where they may be the subject of retribution. I have noted, when being with some Western friends, that there is growing talk of evacuation and embassy action. If you live in certain countries, the risk to your life as a representative of your government, or your racial features, could set you on a collision course with the society you are part of.

In the likelihood of a coming military attack on Iraq, people who are identified as Westerners have to be rather careful. Under normal circumstances, Jordan is one of the most welcoming countries that you could be in. How many times have we heard those words spoken by Jordanian taxi drivers: “Welcome to Jordan”. I don't expect this to be the case when the “Willing Coalition” decides to strike Iraq. At the very least, it will be a more hostile environment and the worst scenario could result in the loss of life. An angry mob will not ask to see my passport. They will not know that I come from the land of the Minkie whale and therefore come from Husavik in Iceland. How many of the mob know that such a little entity like Iceland exists? They will see me as the representative of somebody hostile to Arabs and I will have to make the best of it. Therefore, all I can suggest is that you all get a job in Iceland and we can all live happily for ever after. In other words, we turn the country of Iceland into a hippy commune. A life of bliss, eating fish and cooking quiche. Obviously joining the police is very high risk. It is your job to approach nasty individuals. You could have become a librarian or a museum curator. You knew the risks. On the other hand, joining the armed forces of a country is not necessarily that dangerous. You have to remember that most soldiers, sailors or airman have never seen combat action, whereas I think most policemen in the Bronx have.

We have now come full circle. We have thought of some of the threats posed to us. Have we ever contemplated slaughtering others? Speaking for myself, I believe that I have only ever hated one person. He used to live near Al Bustan Restaurant. There was an empty block of flats opposite to where he lived and I always hoped that a sniper would be able to terminate his life. I never had the guts to do it myself and both of us lived in torment. I never walk near Al Bustan nowadays, because such bad memories are dredged up.

Anyhow, enough of this morbidity. These are just a few tips to avoid assassination. The best tip I can give you to avoid death by a politically motivated person is to apply to be the official Father Christmas at the North Pole. I am sure nobody would want to kill Santa.

Hold on, though. I see a more sinister scenario on the horizon. Disgruntled child of Chicago writes: “Dear Santa, thank you for the inferior skateboard, made of cheap plywood. You know I asked for the Bloomingdale titanium tipped board. Seems you are not sensitive to the order of a child with limited aspirations, so choke on the anthrax, fatso, that accompanies this letter.”

 

 

 


 

 

Brink of a new precipice

By Nihal Singh

Khaleej Times, 1/31/03

 

AS THE drumbeats of war get louder, the seemingly inevitable American-led invasion of Iraq and its fearful aftermath are giving way to a transformation of the international scene, with nations seeking to redefine the George W. Bush administration's credo of US military and political supremacy. Spats between America and its European allies are not new nor are differences between Washington and client states.

What is startlingly new is the gumption of not merely the traditional dissenter France but of Germany and such unquestioning allies as Turkey and South Korea to challenge American assumptions about 'regime change' in Iraq and its hardline North Korea policy. The rebuff of the old European Nato members to a US request for playing a subsidiary role in the looming war on Iraq has come as a jolt to Washington.

Whether it is the "periodic madness" that grips the US, as the writer John Le Carre has suggested, or a deeper philosophical divide between a post-September 11, 2001 America and much of the remaining world can be debated. Beyond doubt is the fact that not only are the US and its traditional Cold War European allies drifting apart but the latter believe that the basic assumptions of civilised life and society are being challenged by Washington.

Voices of dissent in America are making themselves heard for the first time since September 11 but no one expects them to interfere in W's war plans. The coterie of hawks around the US president will remain supreme and the swing of the pendulum will not take place until the disastrous consequences of the war make themselves apparent. The strength of European feelings cannot be doubted, even in a Britain whose prime minister is giving total support to W. In all probability, the US will launch a war, with the approval of the UN Security Council or otherwise, but the debris left by such an eventuality will come to haunt America.

It is a telling reminder of the present state of things that US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should declare France and Germany 'old Europe', fastening on the pro-American formerly communist new members of Nato, possessing the proverbial zeal of new converts, to seek comfort. And countries such as Turkey and South Korea are taking swipes at the United States on its new policies and priorities.

The issues being defined go far beyond the looming tragedy of Iraq. In diverse ways, Europeans, those aspiring to be European and others are chipping away at the proclaimed American dictum of being the king of the universe and the supreme arbiter of conflicts, wherever they might occur. Although in the end America obtained a unanimous UN Security Council resolution on Iraq (1441), France led a two-month guerrilla war to clip American wings. And the contortions spokesmen of the US administration are having to undertake to justify war, despite the continuing UN inspectors' labours in Iraq, are proof of the efficacy of salami tactics.

The truth is that apart from those who choose to identify with W for opportunistic or ideological reasons, a dissonance is growing between America and most other nations over world view and history. For W and his acolytes, it is not the end of history but the beginning of a new American imperial age. But this new age that is being trumpeted sits ill with human progress and the 21st century. The world rebels at being dragged back to the colonial era and advances in science and technology have opened up new avenues for rebels - individuals and nations - to fight their battles.

How long this new and unique crisis in the world will last will depend, above all, on the time it takes the resilience of the American system to correct W's skewed priorities and ambitions. It is, above all, an American disease, but unlike McCarthyism and the Vietnam war, much of America, traumatised by September 11, is in thrall to the neo-conservative mantra of maintaining world supremacy at any cost. Even many of those who define themselves as liberals take it for granted that America, being a benign power, should rule the world.

Contradictions abound elsewhere. A European Union that is expanding and is seeking a more unified security and foreign policy is witnessing the spectacle of one of its important members, Britain, going over to W's camp while the right-leaning administrations of Italy and Spain are tilting towards the American view. An independent European defence force remains a concept, rather than reality, while an expanded European Union next year still faces the problem of inviting Turkey in.

There is a growing feeling that the world is teetering on the brink of a new precipice. In the eyes of many, the new world gendarme is of the roguish variety and cannot be trusted because he is feathering his own nest. Taking the Bush administration at face value, it is going after President Saddam Hussein to protect itself and the world from terrorism and to inaugurate a more democratic dispensation in the Arab world. If there are any idealistic undertones to W's policy, they have got lost in the reality of oil politics and America's continuing affection for some dictators.

It is perhaps the first time in history that poised as America is for launching a major war, its rhetoric is so roundly dismissed by the rest of the world. Serious thinkers are appalled at the inability of the neo-conservatives driving W's policy to think through the horrendous consequences of what they are about to begin. Saddam-fixation hides many other objectives and while the world is powerless to stop the American juggernaut, it cannot love the dangerous dimensions of American megalomania.

Despite last-minute efforts to slow down the American juggernaut, the massing of close to 200,000 American and other troops and instruments of war around Iraq has its own logic and momentum. As one who watched the final days and hours of the last Gulf War from Baghdad, I can smell gun powder. The bugle of war has been sounded. All that remains to be determined is the diplomatic foreplay that can alter the timing.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

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CIS: Unfulfilled hopes
Gulf News, 1/31/03
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The Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS, incorporates many of the former USSR's constituent parts which are independent states trying to make their way forward in the world, with varying degree of success. In the early 1990s the CIS was looked on as a force for economic development and political initiative but this has not materialised.

   The CIS has always been dominated by Russia, which has its own problems and does not have much time or resources to spare for its neighbours. This week's summit illustrated how it has become a club for European members of the CIS. The meeting was ignored by the Central Asian members, who look elsewhere for their futures, seeking closer links with China in the east, their Muslim and other neighbours to the south, and west through Turkey to Europe.

   But despite the failure of the CIS to deliver on its early promise, the region it incorporates is potentially wealthy, and is politically very important. As an organisation, the CIS has a long-term role to play, but it needs more support than small amounts of Russian largesse. It should seek closer trading relationships, better economic co-operation, and more constructive political dialogue with other multinational bodies around it.


 

 

 


 

 

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U.S. is poised to step deep into a quagmire
By Patrick Seale, Gulf News, 1/31/03

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The Middle East is on the brink of war. Compelling evidence pointing to a coming conflict can no longer be ignored or wished away. Hoping to benefit from an element of surprise, the United States will no doubt keep alive a hint of doubt about its intentions until the very last moment, but all the signs point to an attack on or about February 15.

The U.S. juggernaut has concentrated massive firepower against Iraq. The strike will be swift, surgical and overwhelming. The inescapable conclusion is that Saddam Hussain's regime is living its last days.

In his State of the Union address, President George W. Bush announced that Secretary of State Colin Powell would, on February 5, present proof to the Security Council of Iraq's secret weapons and its links to terrorism.

He will seek to make an irrefutable case for war. Wash-ington has already embarked on a multi-million dollar propaganda campaign to convince friends and enemies that Saddam is a menace that must be removed to "liberate" the Iraqis and make the world a safer place.

Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, has done the Americans' work for them. His report to the Security Council on January 27 detailing Iraq's failure to account for its stocks of anthrax and the deadly VX agent, or to reveal details of its mobile chemical laboratories and missile delivery systems, has bolstered the American position.

It was an even "better" report than the Americans had hoped for. In the American view, the Security Council can now discuss the matter but there will be no need for a new resolution.

In the coming war, America's "coalition of the willing" will include Britain, Australia, Spain, Italy, Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria, Kuwait, Qatar, and no doubt three or four other more reluctant allies. 

Attempts to restrain the U.S. by France, Germany, Russia, China, Turkey and the Arab League have failed. Hailed as a triumph of anti-war European diplomacy, UN Security Council Resolution 1441 has in fact provided the political cover for an American military build up.

France has no appetite to use its veto in the Security Council and will, in any event, have no opportunity to do so. Turkey is unable to refuse the U.S. the use of its bases. At their recent conference in Istanbul, Arab foreign ministers did not dare criticise the U.S. but put all the onus on Iraq to avoid war.

Although anxious about the likely emergence of a pro-American regime on its borders, the Iranian leadership will undoubtedly welcome the final demise of its arch-enemy, Saddam. Russia has already softened its opposition to war and warned Iraq that it cannot count on its support.

Bush will evidently not be deterred by the swelling anti-war movement around the world. On the contrary, the hostility of public opinion is driving the Washington hawks to strike sooner rather than later.

It would seem that only the exile or death of Saddam, or an eleventh-hour decision to reveal all his hidden weapons, might now save Iraq. But none of this is plausible.

Just as Saddam in 1991 remained confident until the very last moment that the U.S. would not attack him, so today he has once again failed to heed the signals of imminent conflict. He is likely to lose his regime, perhaps even his life, in trying to hide some trivial weapons of little operational use which are, in any event, dwarfed by American power.

Imperial adventure

Washington is about to embark on an imperial adventure, not unlike that of London in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when Britain was the dominant power in Egypt, Iraq, the Gulf, south Arabia and much of the rest of the Middle East.

Bush appears to be convinced that seizing Baghdad, an ancient pole of Arab civilisation, and destroying Saddam, will provide a democratic model for other oppressed Arabs and "jump-start" the refashioning of the Middle East on pro-Western lines.

He seems to believe that it will also deprive terrorist groups of "rogue state" sponsorship, making America safe from another attack, which could be even more deadly than 9/11, because next time weapons of mass destruction might be used. The lure of Iraqi oil must also have entered his calculations.

Nevertheless, there is a strong streak of naïve idealism in Bush's vision. It allays America's fears of its new vulnerability to terror, while flattering its pretension that its power is being used for the benefit of humanity.

Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair, who in his eagerness to maintain the "special relationship" has allowed himself to be sucked into America's war plans, is fond of saying, in the teeth of a great deal of contrary evidence, that America is a "force for good" in the world!

The truth is that Bush has been sold a load of dangerous rubbish. At the heart of the Washington decision-making process lies a cabal of Zionist extremists who have shaped America's political and military agenda, carefully wrapping it in the American flag for the consumption of the president and the public.

A cabal triumphs

Supported by friends and allies in right-wing think tanks, in the press, and in lobbying organisations, this small group of men has a narrow, Israel-centric vision. War against Iraq marks the triumph of this cabal and of its most prominent strategic thinker, Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz.

For such men, Iraq represents the last major strategic threat to Israel. The aim of the war is to weaken Iraq permanently, by "remaking" it as a loose federal state without a strong centre. Of the other regional threats to Israel, Egypt was taken out of the Arab military equation by its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and has been neutralised ever since by a $2 billion-a-year American subsidy.

Syria, much diminished since the death of Hafez Al-Assad and beset by domestic rivalries, offers no real threat. Iran is a cause of concern to Israel because of its nuclear ambitions and its support for the Hezbollah, but it is a long way from Israel's borders and has worries on other fronts.

In any event, Israel has had close relations with Iran in the past. It trained the Savak secret police under the Shah and supplied Iran with arms during its war with Iraq. Somewhere below the surface is the Israeli hope that ties will one day be revived.

Iraq then is the prime target of Israel and its American friends. It must be punished for daring to attack Israel in 1991. It must be disarmed to protect Israel's regional monopoly of weapons of mass destruction. The overthrow of Saddam would change the strategic horizon. Under the cover of a war intended to enfeeble the whole Arab system, Israel will be able to defeat the Palestinians.

This is the intoxicating vision of the pro-Israeli camp. It is the fervent hope of Ariel Sharon, Israel's prime minister and the champion of a "Greater Israel", now basking in his personal triumph at this week's elections.

The mantra one hears from his advisers is that after the war everything will be different. The road to Jerusalem runs through Baghdad! The Quartet's "road map" to Palestinian statehood by 2005, already dismissed by Sharon, will fade into history like the Mitchell and Tenet plans.

In the meantime settlement building, house demolitions, targeted killings, curfews and closures, the whole cruel panoply of Israeli repression, together with the destruction of every vestige of Palestinian autonomy, will continue unabated until the Palestinians surrender and accept crumbs thrown to them.

There are many things wrong with this scenario. For one thing, the Palestinians show no sign of being beaten into submission. Sharon is a great tactician but a hopeless strategist. As the last two years have shown, he is leading Israel to catastrophe.

He will need to find a Palestinian quisling to implement his plan for the parody of Palestinian "statehood" he envisages - defenceless en-claves, cut off from each other, living a half-life at Israel's mercy. But the unfortunate fate of Bashir Gemayyil, Sharon's protégé in Lebanon 20 years ago, is likely to dissuade a potential Palestinian quisling from stepping forward. In the meantime, the suicide bombings will continue.

The U.S., in turn, is likely to find that pacification of Iraq after the war will be long and expensive. When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 it was welcomed at first before being driven out by guerrilla action. U.S. forces are likely to face the same experience in Iraq. Already at risk throughout the region, Americans and American interests could face fresh assaults.

In seeking to impose its imperial hegemony on the Middle East, the U.S. could find itself drawn into a new "Vietnam", just when it had recovered from that soul-wrenching experience. The Arab and Muslim world is not ripe for a new colonial experience. Al Qaida is still out there, attracting new recruits by the day and poised to strike again.

The writer is an eminent commentator and the author of several books on Middle East affairs.

 

 


 

 

 

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Mubarak woos Jewish state amid Arab fears of escalation

An Arab press review, By The Daily Star, 1/31/03

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The pan-Arab daily Al-Quds al-Arabi predicts an upsurge in armed Palestinian resistance against Israel, including more suicide bombings, following Ariel Sharon’s election victory. The paper highlights a statement from Islamic Jihad saying the Israeli electorate had opted to “continue the war” and vowing to respond in kind, and remarks by Hamas leaders predicting that “escalation will be the order of the day” with Sharon reinstated for a second term.
It notes that both groups took part in the all-party Palestinian “dialogue” in Cairo, which was suspended this week after Egypt failed to persuade the 12 factions participating to agree to a one-year suspension of attacks on Israel.
The paper says Palestinian analysts expect things to “go from bad to worse” as a result of the overwhelming mandate Israeli voters gave Sharon to continue throttling West Bankers and Gazans. He is expected to use a prospective US invasion of Iraq as cover for an intensified military assault on the Palestinians, perhaps entailing a full-scale reoccupation of the Gaza Strip. And that will put him in a stronger position to force them to accept his “interim multi-stage solution” for the Occupied Territories ­ entailing “a nominal Palestinian state without sovereignty or borders” ­ as an alternative to the international “road map,” which he has rejected.
Al-Quds al-Arabi’s sources add that the Palestinians will be particularly vulnerable to Sharon if they are “divested of Arab cover,” as Egypt is apparently threatening to do. They report that at the inter-Palestinian talks in Cairo, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman warned participants that unless they agreed to Egypt’s unilateral truce proposal, it would rescind its engagement in the Palestinian issue.
The paper also notes that the early meeting which Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is planning with Sharon ­ he suggested it when he telephoned to congratulate him on his election victory ­ will be the Israeli prime minister’s first with an Arab leader for 23 months.
In Beirut’s An-Nahar, columnist Mohammed Ibrahim describes Mubarak’s overture to Sharon as the “most telling sign of the significance” of the hard-line Israeli leader’s poll triumph.
He suggests that the Egyptian president’s motive is to “lend Sharon a hand” in his bid to cobble together a coalition government with the Labor Party rather than set up a far-right administration.
Ibrahim remarks that ever since Sharon became prime minister, Egypt has deliberately kept contact with him to a minimum in order emphasize that his policies are unacceptable. The fact that Sharon won a landslide at the ballot box, despite his security and economic failings, seems to have persuaded Cairo that Israeli opinion is undergoing a profound right-ward shift. Cairo now seems to have fallen for Sharon’s drive to portray himself as a centrist eager to shun the extreme right.
Ibrahim says Mubarak has always “banked” on Israel’s Labor Party. But while Labor leader Amram Mitzna attributes his party’s poor showing to its association with Sharon’s first government, and predicts that it will bounce back once it presents a clear alternative to him, “this simple analysis has now been dealt a body-blow, not only by the veteran Labor leaders, but by Mubarak.”
By “opening up to Sharon,” Mubarak has given a “practical dimension” to the inter-Palestinian talks he has been hosting aimed at declaring a truce, Ibrahim says. Sharon is the only person he can negotiate the terms of any truce with. And the Israeli leader will do his best to “encourage Egyptian hopes” about a deal, if only in order to woo Labor into a coalition. For Labor can hardly sustain its refusal to join forces with Sharon when he is ostensibly working toward a cease-fire. Although Mitzna may not be able to renege on his election pledge to keep Labor out of a government led by Sharon, he could be ditched in favor of the likes of Shimon Peres. And that, says Ibrahim, is being made more likely by Mubarak’s conduct.
The deputy director of a semi-official Egyptian think tank suggests Cairo is trying to re-engage Israel in peacemaking, and argues that the Palestinians should agree to suspend their armed struggle ­ or at least suicide bombings ­ to facilitate that.
Wahid Abdelmeguid of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies argues in the UAE daily Al-Ittihad that in his second term Sharon will find it harder than before to block Middle East peace moves, regardless of whether or not there is war on Iraq. He succeeded in having those moves deferred until after the elections but will not find it easy to do so any longer, he reasons.
Abdelmeguid remarks that in exchange for their reluctant agreement to postpone action aimed at fulfilling the road map, Washington’s partners in the international “Quartet” (the EU, Russia and the UN) effectively amended the plan for the better. They rejected Israeli demands to delay movement until a new Palestinian leadership was in place, to have the US rather than the Quartet as a whole act as judge of the two sides’ behavior, and to drop any reference to the Saudi initiative as the basis of Arab-Israeli talks. On the other hand, the Quartet agreed to the Palestinians’ demand that Israeli settlement activity be frozen once the road map starts being implemented.
Abdelmeguid argues that this constitutes progress where the Palestinians are concerned, and it is only through small incremental steps like these that they can eventually achieve their aspirations. But to do so, they need to develop a “national strategy” for the period between now and 2005, when the road map envisages the proclamation of a Palestinian state. That strategy should put an end to the “incoherence” and “confusion” that has characterized the Palestinians’ conduct in recent months, and to the suicide bombings that have turned Western opinion against them and enabled Israel to portray its persecution of them as part of the worldwide “war on terror,” he argues.
Abdelmeguid says that while the Palestinians won much European sympathy for their position at the recent London conference on reform of the Palestinian Authority (PA), they would have had a much stronger hand if they had gone to the meeting ­ or any other international gathering ­ armed with a “coherent initiative” of the kind Egypt is proposing.
Its twin aim, he says, is to get the road map implemented in accordance with the timetable it specifies, and to prevent Israel from blocking or deferring it again by “denying its new government the kind of freedom of movement that Sharon’s first coalition enjoyed.”
But Jordanian columnist Mahmoud Rimawi warns that it would be folly for the Arabs to bank on engaging Sharon in any meaningful peace process, and contends they should renew the campaign to demand international protection for the Palestinians.
He writes in the Amman daily Al-Rai that the danger posed by Sharon’s re-election is not that his new government will block the peace process, which has already been crippled by his first administration, but that it will proceed with the “slow, but systematic, ethnic cleansing” of the Occupied Territories.
While the Europeans are looking to activate the Quartet and urging Washington to get moving with the road map, no one seriously expects that to achieve anything in the short term. All it will do is trigger “new maneuvers,” such as demands that PA reform be reconsidered or Arafat be removed as a condition for progress.
“Accordingly, political overtures alone will achieve nothing with a man who has never engaged in a peaceful political project in his life,” Rimawi argues. Without abandoning the diplomatic track, the Arabs should pursue other avenues too, and above all renew the quest to secure international protection for the Palestinians, he says.
“That is the only measure that can change the equations under present circumstances, pre-empt the Likud’s customary deceptions, and underline the world’s responsibility for shielding a people whose only safeguard at present is divine protection,” he writes.
In the Saudi-run pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat, Lebanese commentator Abdelwahhab Badrakhan remarks that the combination of Sharon’s election victory and George W. Bush’s State of the Union address made television viewers on Tuesday night feel they were watching a “horror movie.” The spectacle of Israeli right-wingers dancing for joy and American lawmakers giving Bush standing ovations “left no room for hope, for breath, or even for saying that the world deserves better than this,” he says.
Badrakhan says it astonishes how events have conspired to link “warrior” Bush and “man of peace” Sharon and how both have striven to adopt similar worldviews. It is hard to tell who has influenced the other most, but their attitudes to power and security have become almost indistinguishable.
“Israeli voters didn’t exaggerate when they said the most important elector to vote for Sharon was the US president, and observers around the world don’t exaggerate when they detect many Israeli traces in Washington’s policy,” he says. And while the US has never been too fussed about the morality of its foreign policy, its “institutionalized immorality” can be attributed to the Zionist ideologues who wield such clout at the White House and the Pentagon.
Badrakhan says the fact that Israeli voters overwhelmingly re-elected as their leader a war criminal under investigation for corruption says a lot about the way Israeli society is changing, as does the manner they “punished” those parties that were proposing a peace agenda.
But Sharon could not have won so comprehensively without Bush’s help, to which he added an election night “gift.” In his State of the Union speech, the American president saw no need to discuss the Palestine issue, not even by way of reiterating his previous “vision” or in order to “market” his planned war on Iraq. This seemed to imply that “the matter is being left to Sharon, is no longer urgent and isn’t even on the American agenda,” Badrakhan writes. “Sharon will know how to make use of this bonus gift, and developments in Iraq will doubtless provide him with the full freedom to employ his many options,” he says. “Thus Bush has confirmed once again that he is a sure and faithful partner in the Likud’s war on the Palestinians.”
In Syria, the ruling Baath Party daily Al-Baath also finds it apt that Bush issued his “declaration of war” on Iraq on the same night Sharon was chosen to resume command of the Israeli war machine.
“The new American declaration of war on Iraq was unmistakable,” the paper declares in a leader signed by its editor in chief, Mahdi Dakhlallah. “Any doubters will be helped
by Paul Wolfowitz, the assistant
US secretary of defense, who declared candidly that the US troops massing in the region are Washington’s ‘last hope,’” he writes. “So it would appear that peace no longer stands any chance.”
The “new American imperium” was also a major player in the Israeli elections. “Indeed, the American president was the premier elector in Israel, and did much to prepare the climate that was primed from the outset for a Sharon victory, not least by freezing all America’s peace proposals and initiatives, including the road map, as a service to him.”
With both the American and Israeli leaders portraying themselves and each other as “men of peace” while waging war in pursuit of extreme ideological doctrines, “the world’s intelligence has never been so badly insulted,” Dakhlallah says.
He adds that the sheer irrationality and senselessness of all this leaves the Arabs with little alternative to “falling back on their survival instincts.”
“If we look back over the past decade and examine developments, we will find that we have knocked on every door and demonstrated our willingness to sacrifice for the sake of peace, and out of faith in it. But they demonstrated throughout that what they want is continued aggression and occupation, and nothing else,” Dakhlallah concludes. “Our instincts leave us with only one answer: resistance.”

 

 

 


 

 

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