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Common
agenda eludes Pakistan
By Farhan Bokhari,
Gulf News
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Pakistan's anti-U.S. politicians who promise to bring out a million people
to protest Washing-ton's plans for attacking Iraq may be disappointed,
though not without the opportunity to press their point.
As the world waits anxiously to know if the apparent inevitability of war
is indeed going to play itself out, the anti-war demonstrations across
Pakistan - the world's only Islamic country which is also a nuclear power
- so far have only attracted a few thousand participants.
But for General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler and a close
U.S. ally in the fight against terror, the modest numbers of protesters
are hardly reassuring.
The passions surrounding the issue of Iraq are quietly visible across the
streets of the country where many mainstream Paki-stanis are quick to
denounce the planned attack on a fellow Islamic country.
Their reluctance in joining a street protest is as much a consequence of
little confidence in anti-government leaders as the hope that a last
minute development may well stop the coming war.
Will the Iraqi president Saddam Hussain choose to go into exile either
voluntarily or per force of circumstances? Will the U.S. eventually submit
itself to dissenting voices from Europe such as France and Germany and
throw its weight behind keeping up the diplomatic pressure on Baghdad?
Would Iraq suddenly spring a surprise in coming out with a comprehensive
list of lethal weapons to the satisfaction of the United States, in a way
that would prevent war?
In the minds of the Pakistani public, there are no clear answers to such
questions, in sharp contrast to the western world where many conclude that
a war will eventually come. Across mainstream Pakistan, many have chosen
to wait in anticipation, hoping to see politics overtake war-mongering.
Ultimately though, if a U.S.-led attack followed by an invasion of Iraq
takes place, Pakistan is likely to feel the consequences, not only in
terms of regular and gradually swelling public protests, but possibly also
fresh internal disruption such as armed attacks from members of dissident
groups seeking out relatively unprotected targets.
The danger of such a fall out is sufficient to press home the message that
complacency on the matter of Iraq is fraught with unforeseen dangers of
the kind which must only undermine Pakistan's future prospects. Faced with
the possibility of such insecurity, Pakistan is hardly prepared to fight
unexpected unrest which may well coincide with militancy, as public anger
demonstrates itself.
Confronted with tough choices, a country like Pakistan neither has the
luxury of embracing easy solutions nor necessarily the choices with the
assurance of keeping peace on the streets. If a U.S. dominated military
alliance chooses to attack and capture Iraq with the agenda of ruling over
the oil rich country for a period of time, a host of Islamic countries are
set to witness protests, demonstrations and other forms of disturbances,
with the promise to deepen the divide between the Islamic and the Western
world.
To face the fallout, the broad contours of a so-called Iraq policy for
countries such as Pakistan must be built upon the necessity of seeking a
national political consensus backed by a credible reform agenda which sets
the pace for new economic openings and societal trends.
In the end, managing the anger would be more about creating the hope for a
better future rather than slapping measures for tough control.
In Pakistan's case, there's no doubt that the country's ruling élite who
have traditionally dominated politics, the economy and society, have only
left behind a trail of many misdeeds which have subsequently contributed
to fuelling anger and frustration across the grass-roots.
It is not surprising that many lower and middle income Pakistanis quickly
denounce promises of expected reforms from the country's past and present
day rulers, recognising fully well that such leaders and their
predecessors represent deeply held and long nourished vested interests.
How can the future be any different from the past? To that simple question
from many Pakistanis there are as yet no compelling answers. For Mush-arraf,
who has placed himself in an unassailable position, reinforcing his
presidential authority with powers such as those of sacking the prime
minister, there can be little success in pushing the country towards
political stability unless backed by a new set of radical reforms.
Pakistanis who choose to take the protest route to vent their anger may
include many who have no faith in the newly created parliamentary
structure. The fall-out from last October's elections has left many
Pakistanis clearly dismayed.
The emergence of a new ruling political coalition, placed in power amid
allegations of support from Musharraf's government, has only reinforced
the belief that the government has been installed for the president rather
than the people. Such a new ruling structure suffers from a number of
political deficiencies.
The new government severely lacks in its ability to embrace the
cross-section of political groups including those in the opposition, as it
operates in a highly polarised environment. Pakistan's opposition parties
are eager to use every opportunity to malign and weaken the government
even on matters of national importance, knowing fully well that they
operate in a zero sum game where their strength must come at the expense
of the government's weakening.
It's hardly surprising when Pakistanis find themselves disappointed at the
very mention of national consensus surrounding a set of key main issues.
Unlike many other countries where, despite a sharp divide in politics,
political groups find themselves uniting around a small group of core
issues, Pakistan is still far from identifying such a common agenda.
To exacerbate matters further, the country's largely moribund economy
provides little solace. In the past few weeks, unexpectedly heavy rainfall
has provided some relief to the otherwise weak prospects for the economy.
Pakis-tani officials now expect this year's economic growth rates to rise
on the back of a larger production of wheat, thanks mainly to helpful
rains.
Yet, this is also an example of how the foundations of the economy rest on
tenuous footings, relying on events such as acts of nature rather than a
strong recovery in the investment confidence, encouraging businessmen to
make medium to long term investments in new business ventures and
industries.
Pakistan suffers from a host of challenges on the economic front where
compelling issues such as high unemployment, poverty, the presence of a
large but nevertheless devitalised public sector and last but not the
least, the obstructive nature of the government's bureaucracy, together
undermine future prospects.
Turning around some of the most significantly regressive trends
undermining Pakistan's economy must ultimately be a challenge for not only
improving political stability but also unleashing a new reform agenda.
The outcome of such reforms could well be critical for setting a new
course for Pakistan's society - a country of 140 million people where many
still consider themselves either un-represented or under represented.
Across the country's neighbourhoods where tears are quietly shed on the
upcoming Iraq tragedy, many Pakistanis are also faced with the virtual
absence of government. For many of them, the profound question must be,
where's the government in a country where political and economic discord
has left behind a long trail of many official misdeeds.
In the heat of the moment as the discussion surrounding a post-war Iraq
remains intense, it is possible that the long term agenda may well go
completely off the radar screens of Pakistan's top policy planners.
Ultimately though, they would have to recognise that understanding the
words not yet spoken out on the streets may well be the most significant
aspect of their function in understanding Pakistan.
It's an example of an almost deafening silence speaking much louder than
the claims from those who promise to lead a million people on to the
streets of their country.
Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and
economic matters. The writer can be contacted at fbokhari.opinion@gulfnews.com