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Arabs fail to help Europe defend them
By Abdelmalik Salman, The Daily Star
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It was out of the ordinary that France
should ask the Arab League through Lebanon, which currently holds the
rotating presidency to issue a statement in support of the French,
German and Russian declaration released in Paris after a visit there by
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This declaration stressed the need to forestall a war on Iraq by giving UN
weapons inspectors the time and facilities they need to complete their
mission.
The oddities of this development can be summarized thus:
l The position adopted by “old Europe” (a phrase coined by US Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to denote the French-German alliance) represents
a more advanced anti-war stance than that adopted by most Arab countries.
Theoretically, the Arabs are expected to be the side most interested in
achieving a peaceful settlement to the crisis. After all, the country at
risk of destruction at the hands of the American war machine is Arab. This
being the case, the Arabs were expected to be the most active opponents of
the war not to mention, of course, the fact that the war threatens the
entire regional order.
If America succeeds in occupying Iraq, the Arabs would be subjected to a
new carve-up of the Middle East reminiscent of the Sykes-Picot deal at the
end of World War I, only this time the new colonial masters will be the US
and Israel. In other words, the future of the entire Arab world would be
in jeopardy. That is why the Arabs were expected to fight hard to avert
war, offering far stronger resistance to the advancing imperial American
design than the opposition led by “old Europe.” The reality, however,
is that the French and the Germans now appear to be fighting the Arabs’
battle on their behalf.
l It used to be the Arabs who were always rushing off to Europe in search
of assistance in their confrontations with America’s perpetual bias
against them. They relied on European backing for the Palestinians in
their struggle for independence, and in trying to push the Americans to do
the same.
Paradoxically, the Iraq crisis turned this logic upside down. Now, it is
the Europeans who are asking the Arabs for their collaboration to defend
an Arab country against American aggression.
Worse still, the Arabs seem reluctant to oblige. When the Arab states
tried to come up with a unified position, the only result was a weak
statement issued by their foreign ministers asking them to deny US troops
the use of Arab military facilities to invade Iraq. But even this
wishy-washy position seemed too much for some Arab states, which then
distanced themselves from the statement and assailed Lebanon for trying to
pander to European demands for support against the American position
something these countries were not prepared to do.
l Attempts to convene an emergency Arab summit to discuss the Iraq crisis
essentially came about as a result of European (read French-German)
coaxing.
Egypt, which was not excited for such a summit, only agreed to sponsor one
after receiving assurances from Paris and Berlin that they were not about
to abandon their opposition to the American stance. This explains why
Cairo suddenly changed tack from opposing an emergency summit to
supporting it. But the Egyptians reconsidered their position after noting
the deep divisions that emerged during the meeting of Arab foreign
ministers in Cairo, and the failure to agree on a date for an emergency
summit.
This is what caused Cairo to lose interest in the idea, and call instead
for holding an ordinary summit in March. The Egyptians understood the
difficulties involved in reaching a joint Arab position to confront
America.
While it is true that France and Germany did not adopt the position they
did out of concern for Arab interests, but rather in pursuit of European
Union interests, it is also certain that Arab reluctance to face up to
American aggression against Iraq will not encourage the French and Germans
to continue to confront America to the bitter end.
It is too much to expect old Europe to be more royal than the king in
defending Iraq, especially since other Arab states in danger from US
designs themselves don’t seem interested in defending themselves, not
to mention Iraq.
American plans for the phase following the occupation of Iraq include the
following:
l Partitioning Saudi Arabia into three entities, an eastern part on the
Gulf coast (the main oil-producing region); which would remain under
direct American control; the central region of Najd; and the western Hejaz,
which comprises the Muslim holy places.
l Creating a sectarian canton for the Copts in Upper Egypt in order to
destroy the unity of the Egyptian state.
l The permanent settlement of Palestinian refugees in Iraq.
l Changing all regimes that resist American policies and refuse to submit
to American-Israeli diktats.
Notwithstanding these clear and present threats, the Arabs failed to rise
up to the challenge.
Iraq is floating on the second-largest proven oil reserves in the world,
estimated at more than 200 billion barrels. Europe, which relies on the
Middle East for 70 percent of its oil, does not want to see America
seizing control of this wealth.
It would therefore be extremely serious from the European viewpoint for
the Americans to take hold of the oil of Iraq and the Gulf. Should they
succeed in doing so, they would then be able to hold the EU by the throat,
weakening it both economically and politically.
Yet this convergence of interests failed to create a strong alliance
between Europe and the Arab world to confront American policies, mainly
because of the spineless Arab position.
Consequently, Germany and France will ultimately determine the fate of the
confrontation between old Europe and the US on their own without reliance
on Arab political backing.
If old Europe decides to continue opposing American policy on Iraq, that
would be based on the French-German vision of the future of the EU, which
might prompt France to use its veto in the Security Council.
There are several reasons why Paris might veto a new resolution:
l France and Germany realize the dangers implicit in bowing to the
rebellion that took place against them within the EU. American pressure
resulted in the formation of a pro-US British-Spanish-Italian axis that
also included eight other existing and future EU members. Should France
and Germany submit to this mutiny, this will consolidate Europe’s
submission to US policy. The EU would never then be able to escape
American political domination or formulate its own independent foreign
policy. Former French President Charles de Gaulle’s dream of a united
Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals would thus be frustrated.
l France and Germany recognize that should the US succeed in occupying
Iraq and thus come to dominate the Middle East and the Gulf, Europe’s
influence in an extremely vital region would be severely curtailed.
Moreover, the partnership agreement between Europe and the Middle East
(the so-called Euro-Mediterranean Partnership) would be thrown in jeopardy
after the US imposes its writ on the region. The EU would no longer be
able to protect its interests in this extremely vital area.
l France and Germany realize that the US will behave vengefully vis-a-vis
the Paris-Berlin axis after its war in Iraq is over. The US might well try
to deepen divisions within the EU as well deprive the two countries of
economic opportunities in Iraq and the Gulf.
Any intensification by Germany and France of their defiance of the US will
be determined strictly by European calculations. The Arabs will
unfortunately have no significant influence on Europe, having squandered
the chance of exploiting old Europe’s mutiny against American hegemony.
Had the Arabs been wise enough to do so, they would have succeeded in
helping old Europe overturn the existing global balance of power, and
would have played an important share in the creation of a multipolar world
in which they could have exercised much more influence than they have now
under the American-dominated order; an order that threatens to deprive
them of their political independence in a most humiliating manner.
Abdelmalik Salman is an Egyptian political
analyst who heads the Studies and Research Department at the Bahrain daily
Akhbar al-Khaleej (abdelmaliksalman@hotmail.com).