Ershad Mahmud

During the last two weeks, New Delhi has taken a number of measures to

further lessen the level of its relations with Islamabad. Though the current

status of Pakistan-India relation remains unprecedented, the last lowest

downturn in relation was witnessed during the troubled times of Dhaka fall.

The Indian power brokers are working on different fronts to deal Islamabad

once for all. In the current phase, New Delhi has put increased pressure on

Islamabad by not only 'routinely' expelling its embassy officials but also

by registering a case against its acting high commissioner Jalil Abbas

Jilani under notorious act, Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA).

At the same time, the Indian government has already tightened the circle

around the Hurriyat Conference. Most recently, the APHC's New Delhi office

has been closed down while its bureau chief jailed. Besides the government

has deprived Mirwaiz Umer Farooq from his right to move around by canceling

his passport. If that was not enough, the Vajpayee regime has shown greater

adamancy in not releasing old and bed-ridden top Hurriyat leader Syed Ali

Geelani. The 74-year-plus veteran leader is suspected cancer kidney. The

'merciful' Indian establishment, however, succumbed to the massive

diplomatic and political pressure and has ordered the release on parole of

former Hurriyat Conference Chairman Geelani for the time he would remain

hospitalised. This 'favour' for the Kashmir leader comes after about nine

months of detention. The Indian Deputy Prime Minister, however, made it

clear that they would not tolerate those raising Pakistani views in Jammu

and Kashmir.

Simultaneously, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and his fired-brand

deputy LK Advani have consistently been harping against Pakistan even after

withdrawing forces form the Pakistan border. For instance during his recent

visits to Singapore, Qatar and France, Advani made it a point to criticise

Pakistan while his main agenda was to isolate Pakistan in the global

political arena and depict the Kashmir struggle as a terrorist movement.

Eminent Indian writer Praful Bidwai very correctly observed in the current

issue of Frontline: "The reality of terrorism as a growing phenomenon in

India (although it can be exaggerated) has influenced some otherwise

liberal-minded people to view the BJP's 'anti-terrorist' platform with a

degree of sympathy. The BJP has decided to use this perception to its

advantage. Thus, party president M.Venkaiah Naidu recently summed up the

reasons for the BJP's success in Gujarat: "As the election process peaked,

national perceptions crystallized on the central issues of terrorism and

extremism... Our adversaries were rightly recognised as willing to

compromise on national interests... . The people had been watching the

country being bled by terrorists... . The Gujarat elections offered an

opportunity to effectively articulate their concerns on these larger

issues... ."

With this statement one can easily understand the anatomy of India's

Pakistan policy and its forthcoming implications. Reasons of the Indian

inflexible attitude are very simple. Successive development on the

International political scene has gone in the Indian favour, especially, the

developments following the 9/11 events. They had drastic implications on the

Kashmir struggle and its relations with Pakistani establishment. Although

the Kashmir conflict made more headlines in the international media, plus

references to Kashmir were made by various world leaders after 9/11 events.

However, by and large media as well as the world leaders projected the

Kashmir in wrong and negative perspective.

World community is already against Muslims viewing Kashmir struggle an

offshoot of global Muslim terrorism. The American and British officials and

media have not only been opposed to the armed struggle but have also been

helping India diplomatically besides offering technological help to deal the

turmoil. For instance, the United States Ambassador to India Robert D

Blackwill recently visited Srinagar and condemned the 'terrorist violence'

only to avoid a meeting with the Hurriyat. At the same time, the British

ambassador to India held a meeting with the Hurriyat but advised them to

join the political main stream. Most recently, Russian Foreign Ministry

spokesman Alexander Yakovenko supported the Indian point of view just a few

days ahead of Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's visit to

Moscow. The Russian president himself has expressed similar views in his

recent visit to Delhi.

With these developments at the international front going to their advantage,

the Indian leaders are confident to control the Kashmir struggle. The Indian

decision-makers believe that the world community, especially Washington, not

only understands their concerns but also pursues Pakistan to quit its

support for Kashmiris.

The international as well as domestic indicators give Vajpayee

administration a reason to "continue its current polices regarding Pakistan

and Kashmir struggle". The worst form of Indian oppressive measures is

gradual cut in the political space available for the APHC and other

pro-freedom political and human rights groups which is likely to vanish

soon. Moreover, POTA and other black laws will be used against the remaining

Hurriyat leaders. For a beginning, Delhi police has already registered a

case of money laundering against Abudl Ghani Bhut, no one but the Hurriyat

Conference chairman.

To the utter dismay of the Kashmiri people, Mufti Sayeed's entrance to the

power corridor has caused more anxiety and frustration against the hopes

they had attached with his political resolve. Many observers hoped that Mufi

would bring some fresh cure to the wounded Valley. It took him less than a

hundred days to bring more despair and disappointment to the poor people.

Release of prisoners, repeal of the POTA and disbanding of task forces as

well as the special operations groups have not materialized and there is

little hope for the same in future. Moreover, he has also completely failed

to prevail upon the BJP's hawks in his desire to initiate unconditional

talks with the Kashmiri resistance leadership. Interestingly though, Advani

had expressed willingness to start talks with all sections of society

including 'separatists' during his recent visit to Jammu but he refused the

same to political umbrella of Kashmiris i.e. APHC when he returned to New

Delhi. It goes without saying that the Kashmir independence struggle is

passing through a very critical juncture, particularly bad times persist for

the political leaders of the state. Like his close ally, America, India is

also failing to understand that reduction of space and advantage to

political leadership gives a natural reason to militants and extremists

which are said to be their real targets. To the disappointment of many

Pakistanis as well as Kashmiris, the Islamabad's ruling elite is also

running out of innovative ideas to frustrate Indian aggressive designs.

Tit-for-tat approach is no doubt a natural reaction but it is in the

interest of Pakistan's to envisage a fresh approach which should not only

challenge the India policy designs but also forward the country's own

national interest positively as well as independently.

(The writer is a specialist on dynamics of Kashmir conflict and

India-Pakistan relations and working with Institute of Policy Studies)

E-mail: ershadmahmud@hotmail.com