By Hassan A. Barari

Jordan Times, 2/25/03

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IN THE face of what appeared to be inevitable, the Arab “street” has been facing a cutting edge dilemma over whether or not the Arab regimes can save Iraq from destruction and how to cope with the dire consequences of such a devastating war. The announcement that an Arab summit convenes in Cairo has only added to our state of confusion.

In countries such as Jordan, the reasons for such unprecedented confusion can be ascribed to a set of factors. First, there is lack of credible political parties that can relinquish for a moment their opportunist nature, rise above events and educate the public as to the limits of what can be done. The second, and more significant, factor is the pretense with which the Arab regimes have been trying to propagate their ability to have an impact on the course of events in our region at this late juncture. The situation is considerably aggravated by the laziness of the states' elite to embark on real and frank discussion with the public over the next big bang in the region.

In my view, and here is the crux of the issue, the hypocritical elite failed to clear the state of confusion when it did engage in a process of unnecessary outbidding with the “street”.

Here is a classic example in which the disoriented “street” determines the stance of the elite instead of the latter assuming a more leading role. If any layman were asked about the capability of the Arabs to frustrate the American scheme in Iraq, the answer would be, unsurprisingly, negative. However, if the same question were posed to anyone who belongs to the state-made elite, he or she would most probably intellectualise his or her answer by giving much misleading detail about what should be done to stand up to the Americans. Or, worse, he or she would resort to the old-fashioned rhetorical and bombastic statements that blame the West for everything in the region, without providing a practical answer to this burning problem.

The combination of government's policy of tightrope-walking and the elite's irrational and hypocritical assessments has indeed contributed to creating such confusion.

While I understand why governments are trying to appear as though they are exerting genuine efforts to avert a catastrophic war in Iraq, I find it difficult to understand the elite's outbidding. Their hypocrisy is no more evident than when they talk in private. In these closed sessions, they all preach reason and show understanding of the limits of what can be done. But when they talk to what they regard as laymen, they resort to empty outbidding and try to produce a perception that the Arab governments will do something to save Iraq.

Interestingly, when you speak with people in a calm and methodological way, they change their mind and show an appreciation of the governments' position. I myself was in a village two weeks ago and people with modest education bombarded me with plenty of difficult questions regarding the situation in Iraq. I made up my mind to confront them with tough answers rather than appease them. After an hour of discussion, it seemed that they began to appreciate the situation and that they had been subject to misinformation. When you tell people that in foreign policy there is no free ride and that in inter-state interaction, relations are determined by the balance of power and capability among them, people do understand and get in touch with reality. This is what people need, a frank discussion and a down to earth approach that seeks to clarify things as they are, and not as wishful analysis.

Therefore, I don't comprehend why ex-ministers, for example, seem unwilling to do the job. Their number is great — although a majority of them were not appointed on merit — and if they ever had the courage to speak frankly with the people, this will undoubtedly make a difference. They should ditch their current tactic, at least during this period, and exhibit moral clarity about our capabilities, without raising the public expectations.

Other state-made elites can also join forces and enlighten people on why our country behaves the way it does. This should not be interpreted, however, that they support war. But resorting to outbidding, assuming that this will lodge them firmly in the national and even pan-Arabist camps will only add salt to wound. They should understand that it is no longer taboo to talk about our core national interests even when this entails taking an unpopular course of action.

People should be prepared for what lies ahead and when the moment of truth comes, they should not be surprised by where the country stands. They deserve to know the truth and when they do, they will not feel that they have been deceived. In a nutshell, and with the benefit of hindsight, I contend that the street should not scare the elite and the government against revealing true convictions. Over the last four decades, no single regime was overthrown by the street.