Georgia in Turmoil: A Gambit in Eurasian Great Game. by K. Gajendra Singh

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The turmoil in Georgia is a cause of great concern for the general stability of the region, but more so as it adjoins Chechnya, Turkey and Azerbaijan. If the Middle East flares up even more, then its importance as another source of oil increases. Increased oil prices and insecurity of supply would affect countries like Japan and India who depend heavily on crude oil imports. The Chechens also called Cherkes and Circassians were relocated by the Ottoman rulers to its various provinces in Anatolia and Arab lands like Syria and Jordan. They had migrated from Caucasus when the Ottoman empire started shrinking against Russian advance. The movement of Jihadis through Georgia, Azerbaijan and even Turkey to Chechnya, now being investigated, must have been known to the authorities in these countries, all of whom are very close to USA. The Chechnya problem and the discomfiture of the Russians was gloatingly reported by many Russia based journalists from Fox, CNN and even BBC.

The chickens could come home to roost once again. Turmoil in Georgia The scene was deja vue. Crowds harangued and incited by opposition leaders led by Mikhail Saakashvili charged through the portals of Georgian parliamentary building in Tiblisi on 22nd November and then swamped into the chamber itself. Security guards hustled away a tired and dazed President Eduard Shevardnazde, his hair askew. Then for some time there was confusion. Shevardnazde, ruler of independent Georgia almost since the collapse of the Soviet Union, was accused by the opposition of rigging 2 November parliamentary elections. He had to resign. Commenting on his resignation later, Mikhail Gorbachev told the Interfax news agency: "He is not a coward and probably understood that the moment had come to make this step so that Georgia would not break up. I think he was right." In accordance with the Georgian constitution, the parliamentary speaker, 38 year old lawyer Ms Nino Burjanadze, also an opposition leader, but opposed to the storming tactics, became the acting head of state.

Fresh elections were announced for 4 January, 2004. Saakashvili, US educated and with a Dutch wife, has been proposed as the only joint presidential candidate but in Tiblisi rivalry between Saakashvili and Burjanadze remains. Fresh elections are unlikely to resolve Georgia's deep rooted problems. The scenes were similar to Prague or Bucharest in late 1989 or any where in communist states in Europe. In Romania, spontaneous upsurge of students and workers sparked by turmoil elsewhere, was hijacked by communist and military officers led by Iliescu who had been sidelined by Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu . It was described as a political coup d’etat, a charge Iliescu prefers to remain silent on. But there was blood shed. Ilieescu, was then voted out in 1996, but his successor, a clueless professor backed by a free enterprise and robber barons saw stripping of public assets and bludgeoning corruption. GDP fell to half, misery and poverty increased, so the electorate brought back Iliescu with US acquiescence.

Things have stabilized and are now on the mend. Czechoslovakia’s velvet revolution was lucky to have a respected opposition leader in Vaclav Havel but the state broke into Czech and Slovak nations - peacefully. Nearer home in Armenia there is little stability or economic growth. In neighbouring Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, wily but now sick ruler Haidar Aliev’s son Ilham was elected ruler through rigged elections, but the crowds were beaten back and not allowed to approach the Parliament and the government buildings. Basically there is pervasive corruption and accumulation of wealth by the new leaders, their families and friends, not only in the Caucasia but in almost all former socialist countries in Europe and Central Asia. Like other former Soviet republics, Georgia's 2 November parliamentary elections were no different.

For almost 3 decades a fixture, first as communist ruler then as president, Shevardnadze ruled Georgia as interim leader and twice as president after he returned home in 1992 from Moscow. He certainly had a turbulent tenure, having faced separatist rebellions in four provinces, lost control of the breakaway region of Abkhazia and survived three assassination attempts. He also became increasingly unpopular as Georgia’s 5 million people sank deep into poverty, pervasive corruption and a collapse of all government services. Georgia’s GDP has been reduced to one third of 1990, in spite of one billion US dollar support to Georgia by USA. Most of the money as in other former communist states has lined the pockets of the new rulers. In the communist system the orders were sent from Moscow and were implemented. After the collapse of the system, free for all theft and corruption, little rule of law is the norm, with mafias and ruthless bands of gangsters acquiring money and control over levers of power. West has done little about it except making half hearted noises.

Its media rarely highlights the ills as long as west makes money and gets political support. Shevardnadze had no option than to resign when his key allies deserted him. Georgian state television head Zaza Shengelia resigned after Shevardnadze dubbed him as pro-opposition. Tedo Japaridze, head of the national security council publicly distanced himself from the rigged elections. This led to many branches of the security forces to either defect to the opposition or showed reluctance to heed Shevardnadze's wish to impose a state of emergency. National guard and special forces stationed on the outskirts of Tbilisi had switched allegiances. But as Shevardnazde moaned it was the USA, his backer so far which had let him down.” USA has been training Georgian special forces since mid-2002. The defection of these special forces, led by their commander Georgi Shengilia, to the opposition played a decisive role in forcing Shevardnadze to resign “according to Jane. org. Delayed election results on November 20 were widely believed to be fraudulent. The polls had already been denounced by the USA, the EU and the OSCE.

The election commission claimed that the pro-Shevardnadze party “New Georgia “coalition won a 21.3 per cent share, while the exit polls had given opposition groups “National Movement-Democratic Front “(EM-DP) of Tbilisi city council chairman Mikhail Saakashvili the top place. On 26 November, Georgia's supreme court annulled the elections, based on material gathered by the Tbilisi-based group, Fair Elections. The main evidence consisted of two identical forms used to note the official results in each of Georgia's 2,870 polling stations — one compiled and signed by the electoral officers at the stations, the other produced later by the government-appointed Central Election Committee. Under U.S. pressure, the electoral law was changed prior to the vote to allow observers to receive a copy of the official results from the polling stations.

When Fair Elections' observers compared them with the forms produced days later by the election committee, they didn't match. Apart from divisions in Tiblisi, there are other threats facing Georgia, like the instability in the Muslim enclave of Ajaria, which borders Turkey. Shevardnadze had struck a deal with its leader Abashidze not to interfere in Tbilisi and Ajaria would be left alone. Ajaria is as corrupt as any other place. Abashidze's did send his supporters to Tbilisi to back Shevardnadze .Since 1992 Abkhazia and South Ossetia are out of central control. If the more radical EM-DP’s populist leader Saakashvili wins and attempts a military solution to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian problems, it could lead to confrontation with Russia, which has long backed the Abkhaz and Ossetian separatists. Russia has two military bases in Georgia. “What had looked like a grave crisis may have ended up as a triumph for democracy” Economist. Uninformed or biased opinion in the west called the change a velvet or rose revolution. Said the Economist “Proud Georgians will point to this non-violence to argue that their country is fundamentally different to its Caucasian neighbours, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Both of these held flawed elections earlier this year too. But the consequences were not a “velvet revolution” like Georgia’s but, in Azerbaijan’s case, violently repressed riots and, in Armenia’s, a weary resignation by the people that there was little they could do to change things. That things in Georgia happened differently is a tribute partly to the vibrancy of the democratic opposition there, and partly to the fact that the West’s involvement—both in monitoring the elections and in speaking out about fraud afterwards—was much greater.” Toppling of Shevardnadze has more to do with the continuation of the so-called “third wave of democratisation”, which has slowly been sweeping the world since the mid-1970s, and in which one country after another decides to swap authoritarianism for people power. But it was no velvet revolution as in Czechoslovakia in 1989. This is not central Europe but a region of passions and legacy of outside interference. Here the dangers of violence and possible civil war always exists. "The fact that they [the opposition] couldn't unite before the election," says Brenda Shaffer, head of the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, "means that if they get the keys to parliament and to the president's house, I'm not sure they're going to be able to keep running together." Shevardnadze –His legacy Suddenly US favourite Shevardnadze has feet of clay.

Anatol Lieven, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington who was in Georgia in early 1990s during the civil war and turmoil said ;"What people forget is that still, today, Shevardnadze has been leader of Georgia much longer as a communist, than as a so-called democrat or independent president," "This man's whole grip was formed by the communist dictatorship. So the question is: Can [opposition leader Mikhail] Saakashvili put the state back together again?" "He was never a true democrat because he was a person shaped and molded in the Communist system," said George Khutsishvili, a political analyst at the International Center on Conflict and Negotiation "He was a bearer of the spirit of the system." He was a pragmatist, politically agile, a man who knew how to tailor his suit to fit the occasion, Mr. Khutsishvili said. But he never really understood the ideas that underlie civil society. "He was tolerant, but he was not a liberal." Before Shevardnazde resignation, Lieven said: "Always on these occasions, one gets into optimistic mode. But we mustn't make the same mistake with the Georgian opposition that we made about Georgia itself, [dividing it into] goodies and baddies, and cowboys and Indians. "All these people come from a particular Georgian political culture, which so far has thrown up one catastrophe after another," Lieven said , noting that "family, clan, blood relations and patronage" are part of the system, and any government is "bound to reward its followers, its family.” "If they win, I hope this lot will be different," he concludes. "There are degrees; you don't have to do it as kleptocratically as Shevardnadze.

But that is the cultural expectation." Shevardnadze was lauded and feted in USA and Europe, a buddy of Jim Baker. As foreign minister of Mikhail Gorbachev, they brought down the Soviet empire without getting much in return. He was the West’s darling, a champion of democracy then, standing side by side with the last Soviet leader Gorbachev and their close partners in Washington as the Berlin wall came down.. He was a leading champion of disarmament. Among his successes was the negotiation of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty between Moscow and Washington. Shevardnadze also served as one of the chief Russian architects of German reunification -- a fact not lost on German political leaders, who quickly offered Shevardnadze exile over the weekend. "Should Shevardnadze decide he wants to come to Germany," government spokesman Bela Anda said, "he would, not least because of his service of German reunification, be welcome." So USA did put up with his misrule. But Gorbachev was fobbed off with royalties for his book and lecture fees on the US circuit. Look how the north Koreans and the Iranians are leveraging their poor cards compared with the militarily powerful USSR. USA provided aid of $ 1 billion, other help and support to build Georgia as a bulwark against Russia's own interest in its near abroad. But most of the money went into pockets of the ruling elite. In return under Shevardnadze Georgia fully towed the US line, becoming an ally of the US in its war on terror.

At US bidding, Shevardnadze purged the top ranks of the security agencies and brought in the pro-American former ambassador in Washington, Tedo Dzhaparidze, as his national security chief, who has now let him down. Putin's hostility was compounded by his conviction that Shevardnadze was less than helpful on the war in Chechnya, across Georgia's northern border. Back in 1999, Boris Yeltsin phoned Shevardnadze and requested using Georgia for a Russian attack on Chechnya. US deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott, advised Shevardnadze to say no. Putin, then just entrenching his power by dealing with the rebels in Chechnya, never forgave the Georgian leader US also trained Georgian units allegedly to battle Chechen rebels who have links to Al Qaeda in the lawless Pankisi Gorge along the Russia's Chechen border to the north. With little heed for long term consequences, USA perhaps let Georgia overlook Chechens using its territory to establish international links, which were possibly behind the Istanbul bombings against two synagogues and British Consulate and HSBC bank. And perhaps elsewhere too, including Iraq. Brief History – Prey and battle ground for outsiders

The word Georgia (Gurjistan in Turkish) derives from Gorj, a name given by the Persians. Georgians call their country Kartvelia The name endings adze sounds similar to Persian name endings ie zade (Muslim Turkic people in central Asia took Russian name endings e.g, Aliev and Niyazov like Khrushchev and Malenkov ) Persians like many others ruled over Georgia. The Georgians are mentioned in Assyrian and Urartu ( Armenian) annals.. The Greeks, knew them as Golchis. Greek city state Miletus ( near Izmir in Turkey ) established many trading posts on the Black Sea coast including Trabzon and others in the region. Georgians came under the direct or indirect rule of Romans, Byzantines, Parthians, Persians and Ottomans. The Arabs reached Georgia in 7th century and established an emirate at Tiblisi. Mongols in their usual manner destroyed and ruled over them Tamerlane was particularly brutal against the Christian population. For long the Caucasian region including Chechnya was part of the Ottoman empire.

The change of ruling elites and the mountainous nature of the region explains why Caucasia resembles a patch work quilt made of Christians and Muslims, with innumerable races and ethnicities, religious sects and languages. After the collapse of USSR, the dictatorial threads holding them together are coming apart . Eighty five percent of Georgia is mountainous. So a quick way to have a feel is to see it by air, which the writer did, when regularly flying over it to and back from Ankara, Istanbul and Athens to Baku in Azerbaijan, to which he was concurrently accredited from Ankara. He also taped twin peaks of mountain Ararat, supposedly the resting place of Noah’s Ark. It was probably on the Judi mountains at the tri-junction of Syria, Turkey and Iraq in north Upper Mesopotamia, where the Ark might have rested. The so-called search for the Ark was also used by USA to spy on the Russian region of Armenia and Georgia and infiltrate spies (some sent by Great Britain were betrayed to their sorry end by the British double agent Philby during the 2nd world war ).

The Eastern Black Sea coast of Turkey around Rize adjoining South Western Georgia is quite similar –It is land of hazelnuts groves and tea gardens (Georgia produced 90% of Russian tea). It is mostly inhabited by Georgia’s ethnic and linguistic cousins, called Laz, who also claim origin from Golchis, whose princess Medea helped Jason and the Argonauts in stealing the golden fleece but was then herself betrayed. (It is an old western trait –ask Pakistanis and now Shevardnadze)The Laz language belongs to Kartvelian family to which belongs Georgian too. Laz are fair-haired with blue eyes and in many remote places they still speak Georgian. But after early conversion to Islam the Laz have stayed loyal and not suffered like Georgians and Armenians. Lazes are energetic and enterprising and control real estate, contracting and restaurants business in Turkey.

They dance very well -- a skimming sort of dance form. They are some what like Indian Sardarjis, with their joi de vivre, with many similar jokes about them too. In 1969 when I tried to enter the Georgian Russian territory on tour to Rize for a short visit, saying that the border was closed, my Russian diplomat friend instead suggested going via Moscow as Intourist guest. In 1993 when I drove up to the border of now free Georgia, there were thousands of Georgians, pouring into Turkey in their rickety cars, trying to sell whatever was then produced in Georgia in exchange for Turkish goods. Some of the women, all called “ Natashas” played havoc with marital harmony in the region. A few “Natashas” from Uzbekistan got many senior Customs officers entangled in their smuggling ring at New Delhi’s Palam Airport. Apart from its strategic location even commercially as a route to the West for energy resources of the Caspian Sea Basin, Georgia is very rich in hydro-electric potential. Many rivers and streams rush down its mountains. Thirty percent of area is covered by the forests.

There is not much oil, but many mineral riches, including manganese, with reserves at par with Brazil, India and Ghana. Georgia became a Christian nation around the same time as Byzantine Constantinople and sided with Orthodox Greeks unlike Armenia. It was converted to Christianity by St Nino, so the popularity of the name Nino. It remains the only other Christians nation along with Armenia in a predominantly Muslim region . Queen Tamara remains Georgia most famous ruler (1184 to 1213). She exercised great influence in the region. As Russians advanced and the Ottoman Empire retreated during the19th century, Georgia came under the Russians rule –direct or indirect. By end of 19th century it was taken over and was later joined to the Soviet Union, as part of Caucasian Autonomous Republic, which was then divided into Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Like elsewhere in the world, in USSR too, the borders were so drawn in Moscow (or in colonial London and Paris) that permanent problems were created whether it was Caucasia or Ferghana valley. Joseph Stalin and his KGB chief Laventi Beria were Georgians. Shevardnadze is the next most well known Georgian. He is hated as much in Moscow as he is admired in Washington for his role, as Gorbachev’s foreign minister, in bringing about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Stalin hijacked Lenin’s concept of communism and transformed it into something quite different and terrible. Beria’s very mention sends shivers down the spine. Post Shevardnadze Tiblisi and Georgia “But the strained calm that reigns has the region taut as a bow.”

At the moment with all eyes focused on Iraq and around it , all parties have good reason to keep Georgia stable. ( US, Russia and Turkey let son Ilham take over from his father in Azerbaijan ) U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had telephoned Shevardnadze urging for bloodless departure. Used to but now shorn of power, Shevardnadze is keen to be heard. He said in an interview: "An unstable Georgia automatically results in an unstable Caucasus." He characterizes the attitude of "the West" toward him this way: "Shevardnadze was a good man. It was nice to co-operate with him, but now his time is up." Earlier he said that U.S. ambassador Richard Miles was part of a plot to depose him. Later, he recanted and said that American non-governmental organizations that helped train polling station observers during the parliamentary vote were responsible. He claims the army was ready, on his orders, to shoot at the protesters. But he chose instead to quit because he didn't want to "go down in history as the one who let the bloodshed happen." On 29 November he told the Russian television that US multibillionaire George Soros was one of the major malefactors which led to the change of leadership in Georgia. Miles has been actively grooming Saakashvili to take over in Georgia .

A series of senior US figures passed through Tbilisi this year to warn Shevardnadze that his days were numbered including former Secretary of State, James Baker four months ago who tried to persuade his old friend to hold an honest parliamentary election and salvage his tattered reputation. "We would like to see stronger leadership," Miles told theWashington Post recently in an unusually public criticism of a long-standing US ally. The same tactics were applied by the US triumphantly in Serbia in 2000 to topple Slobodan Milosevic. Michael Kozak, the US ambassador in Minsk, then sought to emulate the success in elections in Belarus against the authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko but failed. Saakashvili’s more impetuous followers, using his own tactics, tried to force three old guard regional governors to resign by storming their offices., which he had to condemn on TV. He said "They will be punished."

He had to intervene to reinstate the rector of Tbilisi State University, widely accused of corruption and forced out by the same students who had organized the earlier protests in Parliament . "We must go very slowly and not push too hard," said MP Alexander Shalamberidze, a supporter of Saakashvili. "The country is very fragile, and the old guard is still strong," he said in an interview. Little Game in the Great Game USA may be tied down in Iraq but it has a stake in Georgia as a bulwark against Russia and to protect a $2.9 billion Baku-Ceyhan oil pipe line via Georgia now under construction and financed by Western oil companies. It will carry oil from Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea to a deep-sea tanker terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. This would also deny Russia monopoly of oil transport from the Caspian basin to the West. Russia blessed with ruling high price crude exports is quite comfortable economically. The crude prices are not coming down soon.

Russia certainly is placed advantageously compared to before the US invasion of Iraq. It was the Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, who spent two days in Tiblisi acting as an informal intermediary between the two sides and brokered a final meeting between Shevardnadze and the opposition leaders. Under the garb of globalisation, the new rulers in former Socialist countries have transferred public money and property in their names. Under the charade of globalization nearly 200 billion dollars has been transferred from Russia and other socialist countries to western banks and institutions. In the period of ten years, half-dozen dollar billionaires have cropped up in Russia. Clearly a case of robbing the state property and companies. The Yokos affair must be looked at from this angle. The cup of corruption was full in Georgia. So another actor was needed on the stage. The youthful, US trained lawyer Saakashvili, married to a Dutch woman was a protégé of Shevardnadze and once his justice minister.

But Saakashvili, is known to be a "hothead" who walked out of negotiations with the president. It appears that he has not thought through a workable strategy on what to do now, except making hay when the sun would shine. Shevardnadze calls him a "dangerous phenomenon." While Saakashvili might have led the charge into parliament with the crowd breaking down the tall wooden doors and sending deputies racing for safety, and pointing at the white-haired Shevardnadze on the podium and shouted: "Resign! Resign!", but he realizes the enormity of the problem. "The president should stay in Georgia," Mr. Saakashvili told CNN "The important thing was that the military switched sides," which was the turning point, he added. He was honour bound, he claimed, to provide Shevardnadze and his family with "guarantees of absolute security." Slowly and surely Russia and USA are making their moves . US president George W. Bush declared his support for Georgia’s "territorial integrity". Nino Burdzhanadze, confirmed that she had received a phone call from Bush promising help in guaranteeing Georgia's stability. Sean McCormack, US National Security Council spokesman, later said: "The president reiterated United States support for Georgia's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity."

Saakashvili intends to push for membership in NATO and the European Union which will be opposed by Russia. Among others, Russian protégé Aslan Abashidze who rules the autonomous southwestern province of Adzharia like his personal fiefdom is totally opposed to any such move. Saying that the popular revolt in Tbilisi might spill south, Abashidze declared a state of emergency and restricted movement to and from the province. Russia, still has two military bases in Georgia. After the resignation Moscow hosted leaders opposed to Tiblisi for talks. An ethnic Georgian, Abashidze said he has never pursued a policy of outright independence. But he has denounced Saakashvili's "aggressive attitude" toward Adzharia and refuses to say whether his Revival party, and his province, will take part in the Jan. 4 elections. Also at the Moscow meeting with Abashidze were the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, whose break from Georgia is widely blamed on Russian backing. South Ossetia declared its independence during Soviet times and the Black Sea region of Abkhazia separated from Georgia in 1993 after a 13-month war that left 10,000 people dead.

Some 300,000 Georgian refugees fled Abkhazia during the war and many now live in poverty in Tbilisi. In Moscow Abashidze expressed hope that the Russian military forces based in Batumi, the Adjaran capital would intervene to prevent conflict (between Ajara and Tiblisi). He hoped to further strengthen existing economic co-operation with Russia. He was ready for talks with the new regime in Tbilisi and denied any intention of declaring independence. Abashidze met with Russian PM Mikhail Kasyanov and separately with Eduard Kokoyev, leader of South Ossetia,( north Ossetia is in Russia) another separatist region in northern Georgia. Abashidze and Kasyanov discussed joint economic projects and applying a softer visa regime to Adjarans than to other Georgians. Residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia can already obtain Russian passports.

A delegation from Georgia's third separatist region, Abkhazia, was also in Moscow. Valery Loshchinin, a Russian deputy foreign minister, said that Moscow considered Abashidze's regime "an important factor in stability" within Georgia. He also said that joint projects could also include other regions of Georgia than Adjara. Analysts say the real decision on Georgia's territorial future will be made in Russia. " Russia will have to decide whether it wants to calm the situation, or whether it wants to use Adzharia as leverage to pressure the new Georgian government," says Ghia Nodia, head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development. Last Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized Saakashvili's revolt but said he hoped Georgia and Russia could restore the once friendly relationship between them. The Moscow daily Izvestia struck a different tone. Saakashvili, it said, "was the very man who is absolutely unacceptable for Moscow. He is seen as a populist, nationalist and a Russophobe. "In a conciliatory message Saakashvili, likely to win snap presidential elections on 4 January said that Shevardnadze's resignation had created an opportunity to resolve disputes with Russia and establish "friendly and warm relations". Speaking partly in English and partly in Russian, Mr Saakashvili told foreign journalists that "We have always said that for us a fundamental priority is normal relations with our neighbours, and in the first place with Russia." He also expressed readiness for talks with Abashidze. But he added that Adjara could not split from Georgia, as Abkhazia and South Ossetia did in the 1990s.

K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996 with concurrent accreditation to Azerbaijan. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.