Fresh-Faced No Longer, Blair Is Now on Trial, Steve Richards

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LONDON, 29 December 2003 — For the first time since he became leader of the Labour Party there is intense speculation about the future of British Prime Minister Tony Blair. At the end of a torrid year there is a dramatic question in the air. Will Blair cease to be prime minister during 2004? Those who raise the question range across the spectrum of his party. They are not just familiar internal opponents. Some Blairite allies who have worked closely with the prime minister worry about his health and the strategic ineptitude that has led to a crisis over top-up fees for universities. In private they speak apprehensively about the need for a dignified exit strategy in case a prime ministerial resignation becomes either desirable or unavoidable. Some Labour MPs contemplate his departure more gleefully. Several have called publicly for his resignation, including the former Cabinet Minister Clare Short. Indeed, rarely a day passes when Short does not call on Blair to depart. In between these two groups are a growing number of critics who are becoming more vocal and impatient. They include allies of Gordon Brown who want the chancellor of the exchaquer to succeed Blair in the coming 12 months. Until recently these Brownites have been more restrained than Short (who also wants Brown to succeed), but they are starting to flex their muscles visibly.

Then there is the mighty chancellor himself, who has profound doubts about the Blairite course in spite of a limited rapprochement at the end of this year. It goes without saying that his ambition to be prime minister is undimmed. Also making his presence felt is Robin Cook, no friend of Gordon Brown’s but, on several policy fronts, proving to be a subtly forensic critic of the prime minister.

Tony Blair’s critics have some good cause for their restiveness. During this year the leader pushed his party as far as it would go and then decided to push it quite a lot further. The original vote in the Commons on whether Britain should go to war against Iraq produced a massive backbench revolt. In a way that is still underestimated, many Cabinet ministers were also privately uneasy. In a British context, this was Blair’s war, almost his war alone. The way he chose to go about it was also a solo exercise — seeking UN backing for the conflict and expressing confidence that the support would be forthcoming. This was a calamitous failure for British foreign policy, made worse by the desperate scapegoating of France.

In terms of domestic politics, Labour MPs have become more rebellious with the passing of time. Now the Labour benches are filled with former ministers and those who realize their moment has passed. These MPs are much harder to control.

This does not mean that Blair is doomed. Indeed, in my view he will still be prime minister in a year’s time, above all for the simple reason that he wants to be prime minister in a year’s time. It is almost impossible to dislodge a prime minister resolved to continue in power. Margaret Thatcher was an exception, but by November 1990, when her own party removed her, she had been prime minister for more than 11 years and the Conservatives were miles behind in the opinion polls. Blair has served for a mere six and a half years and his party is not in such a vulnerable position. More typical of prime ministerial staying power is Harold Wilson. From 1968 onwards there was endless speculation about his position. He went on to fight three more elections, winning two of them. He did so in far more precarious circumstances than Blair finds himself in at the end of 2003.

Admittedly, Wilson was helped by the failure of internal dissenters to unite around an alternative candidate. In that respect Blair is in a less secure position. He has a single credible contender for the throne, but Brown does not want his fingerprints anywhere near the political corpse of Blair. He knows that his only hope of succession is if the prime minister goes of his own volition. There will be no direct challenge from Gordon Brown in 2004. He waits to see what happens next.