The Baker plan provokes Moroccan discontent, Toby Shelley

Opinion, August 2003, www.aljazeerah.info

The Baker plan provokes Moroccan discontent

Toby Shelley

The Daily Star, 8/12/03

Morocco’s hackles have been raised by the UN Security Council’s support for former US Secretary of State James Baker’s proposals to settle the Western Sahara dispute. Once again, the fragility of relations in the western Mediterranean has been underscored by a row over the territory that Morocco seized after Spain announced its withdrawal in 1975.
In 2002, Rabat eagerly supported Baker, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s envoy, when he proposed a period of autonomy for the Western Sahara under provisional Moroccan sovereignty, to be followed by a referendum in which settlers would vote alongside Sahrawis either for integration with Morocco or independence. Polisario and Algeria successfully opposed the plan and Baker went away to rethink it.
The second iteration of Baker’s plan produced a strange position switch. Rabat opposed the plan, fearful of the wider implications of a period of self-government. Meanwhile, Polisario was nudged by Algeria, its principal supporter, into accepting the proposal as a basis for negotiations, even though the arithmetic of the projected referendum would be firmly set against the independence movement.
Polisario’s turnaround wrong-footed Rabat, leaving its foremost ally, France, to lobby on its behalf at the Security Council to secure a dilution of the Baker draft. Any hint of compulsion in progressing with the plan is now absent. In an uncomfortable reminder of the line-up over the invasion of Iraq, Paris with the acquiescence of Moscow and Beijing opposed Washington, London and Madrid.
Despite the very real weakening of the original draft, Moroccan government claims of victory rang hollow at home, where the competence of the diplomatic effort was called into question in the press. Even before the council vote, a courteous response to a standard Algerian call for improved relations was labeled as self-abasement by one publication.
Morocco’s established political parties and media are again railing against Algiers, accusing it of creating the dispute over the Western Sahara and labeling the independence movement there “mercenaries.” That makes improbable a summit between King Mohammed VI and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, as was talked about earlierthis year. Pressure from the US to create a unified Moroccan-Algerian-Tunisian market fit for American investors will likely weaken Algerian attachment to Sahrawi self-determination over time, just as it will likely encourage Moroccan flexibility. However, there is far to go before competition between the two big players in the Maghreb is dispelled.
There had been signs of an Algerian softening toward Morocco, whether in the language with which it greeted Baker’s revised formula, controversial remarks by former military strongman General Khalid Nezzar, and Bouteflika’s calls for reconciliation. However, Morocco has rebuffed these. Mohammed Abdelaziz, the secretary-general of Polisario, recently said Rabat looked to be retreating into a strident inflexibility over the Western Sahara unseen since the late 1980s. Rebuttal of Baker’s proposals agreed by foreign diplomats to be weighed in Morocco’s favor and a royal declaration that the Western Sahara issue was settled as far as Morocco was concerned seemed to confirm that analysis. Inasmuch as the Western Sahara is a barometer of broader Moroccan-Algerian relations, there is little chance of a break in the clouds soon.
But the Western Sahara is not only a Maghreb issue. Spain’s colonial history in Morocco and the Western Sahara and its proximity to North Africa guarantee a tumultuous relationship. Once more, the Spaniards are portrayed as being in league with Algeria. Only months after Rabat and Madrid mended fences following the spat over an islet off Morocco’s northern coast claimed by Spain, Moroccan officials, parties and media now accuse Spain of perfidy at the UN. It will not be long before the issue of the presidios, Spain’s remaining colonial possessions in Morocco, is again raised, perhaps followed by rumblings over the territorial limits of the Canary Islands. These issues will then feed into mutual discontent over smuggling and illegal migration.
Bickering with Algeria and Spain is a traditional posture for Morocco. It almost has a comfort factor. But strained relations with the US are something else. It was the US that proposed the Security Council endorse Baker’s plan in the face of Moroccan protests, though Rabat later agreed to amendments.
The reminder that the US-Moroccan partnership was not an equal one stung, particularly as it came at a good time in bilateral relations. Notwithstanding disagreement over Iraq, Mohammed VI looked to have secured significant support from Washington, potentially allowing some leverage in relations with the European Union. US-Moroccan free trade agreement negotiations are due to be completed around the end of this year, and the kingdom has been held up by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick as a model for the Arab world. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has promised increased military cooperation.
The respected newspaper L’Economiste expressed Moroccan consternation, writing Washington “forgets 40 years of engagement in the Western camp, from the time of the Cold War and from the Gulf War, our efforts for peace in the Middle East, our democratic opening. As a reward, America cooks up a ‘solution’ for the Sahara that pleases Algeria.”
France will welcome this reminder to Morocco that in Washington, US interests come before those of old friends. Paris has long worried about US penetration of the Maghreb and hopes Morocco will better remember who has been it longest standing and most uncritical friend.

Toby Shelley writes for the Financial Times and is preparing a book on the Western Sahara. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR

Earth, a planet hungry for peace

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers in the West Bank (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).