October 23, 2002 Opinion Editorials          http://www.aljazeerah.info

 

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What is the probability of Israeli retaliation?

Hassan Barari

Jordan Times, 10/22/02
 

IN WHAT appears to be the run up to an American-led attack on Iraq, a lot of speculation is being spread worldwide, particularly among pundits, pertaining to a potential face-off between Iraq and Israel. These presumptions are given impetus by a conscious endeavour on the Israeli side to make Israel be taken into account while talking about the next military confrontation. Amid the massive volume of articles written in Israeli newspapers, a plethora of Israeli leader's statements, and the systematic Israeli incitement to eliminate the new menace to international security — allegedly posed by Iraq — one cannot but conclude that Israel will be playing an active role in the looming American war on Iraq.

If attacked, the Israelis would like us to believe, Iraq will have to deal with the Israeli “invincible” might. Against this backdrop, many in our region have already internalised this possibility and now talk about it as a given. This is also beefed up by the recent Bush-Sharon summit, in which Bush declared that Israel has the right to retaliate.

While it takes a prophet to foresee how the reckless Sharon would act if and when the attempt to dislodge Saddam Hussein gets off the ground, a careful appraisal of the strategic configuration of power leads me to rule out a prospective Israeli intervention. At the end of the day, an Israeli attack needs to be fully coordinated with the American administration which will be wary not to be seen as working with the Israelis in the next war lest this should upset the American strategic scheme in Iraq and the region.

For Israel to effectively take part in the war without suffering major military losses, it needs to obtain — to use the language of the military — the foe-friend code without which the Israeli combat aircraft are destined to be hit by the more superior American and British ones. Therefore, much hinges on the American strategic and political calculations. Nevertheless, it is self-evident that a visible Israeli role in the war would unquestionably ruin the already wicked image of America in the Middle East, leading to more anti-Americanism and, above all, confuse the American scheme — if it exists — for Iraq in the post-Saddam era. By the same token, much rests on whether or not Iraq would employ nonconventional weapons, thus cementing the burgeoning strategic partnership between Bush and Sharon.

Unsurprisingly, from a militarily standpoint, Israel cannot add noticeably to the qualitative efforts of the Americans. Despite the Israeli oft-repeated assertions that their army is capable of dealing with Iraq, the fact remains that their army is inferior to the gigantic American capabilities pooled with the British forces. Undoubtedly, Israel cannot project power beyond its immediate neighbours for a long period, as the Americans have proved to be capable of doing. Furthermore, if the Americans will be doing the dirty job in Iraq, why should Israel bother and involve its army or, more specifically, its air force in a battle in which the defeat of Israel's foe is a foregone conclusion?

Other factors would surely be considered in Israel before a decision on this matter is taken. An Israeli intervention would certainly ignite Arab outrage. An unprovoked Israeli attack would certainly damage its relations with the Arab countries, in particular with Egypt and Jordan. The latter might find itself in a confrontation stance with Israel that has the potential to destabilise Jordan. In Israel, the centrality of a stable Jordan is widely seen as being in the Jewish state's strategic interest. Seeking to alter the order within Jordan is definitely not a mainstream position in Israeli politics. The history of their relationship has proved, beyond doubt, the centrality of Jordan in Israeli strategic thinking. Apparently, it went unnoticed that the Israeli restraint during the Gulf War in 1991 had also to do with an Israeli interest not to harm Jordan. A week before that war, King Hussein wittingly managed to extract an Israeli pledge not to involve Jordan in a future war. I don't see a reason why Jordan cannot do the same again.

However, if the above analysis is accurate, why do Israelis, especially right wing, seem so passionate to take part in the war? I can only assume two reasons. First, it could be for domestic consumption: generating this tense mood helps Sharon keep the Labour Party in his government, thus enabling him to complete his tenure until the next election in November 2003. Second, his image as an unyielding statesman might help him neutralise Netanyahu's popularity within Likud.

Relations with the United States will be a key concern in Sharon's decision regarding Iraq. Sharon is the first Likud leader who has been able to forge a close strategic understanding with an American administration, an area that is often thought to be the monopoly of the Labour Party. The occasion of war may allow Sharon to cultivate his image as a strategic partner with Bush, something he considers will propel him into international prominence. Also, Sharon seeks to make a political capital out of this situation, by asking the Americans not to back peace efforts as a quid pro quo for his constraint. In a nutshell, the nitty-gritty of the matter is that the Israeli government cannot afford to become involved in Iraq without the blessing of the United States

 

 


 

Killing the two-state solution with one stone
By Mustapha Karkouti
 | 22-10-2002

In view of the brutal and continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, Europe and the United Nations have started to wonder whether Premier Ariel Sharon's policy aims at killing the two-state solution.

One of the European and UN leaders and peace-makers has now openly asked this question, shedding doubts at the real intentions of the entire right-wing Likud-led coalition in Israel concerning the Palestinian people future, and warning against the hidden agenda of subjecting Palestinians  to the "Transfer" policy.

The Norwegian diplomat, Terje Roed-Larsen, was one of the facilitators of the 1993 Oslo Accords and is now the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East peace process, recently expressed his deep concerns about the "final solution" for the Palestinian problem, i.e., the "Transfer".

Writing in Ha'aretz last week. Roed-Larsen said: "Let us be frank, if Israel retains overall control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, it will be faced with a difficult choice, given the sheer presence of the Palestinian population.

"Palestinians could be left living in a string of unconnected homelands run by local warlords, which will not give the freedom they covet and would almost certainly guarantee continued insecurity for Israel.

The other option is Israel controlling the land, but without the people. That is known as 'Transfer'." Citing four trends which the "destructionists" (of peace) propagate in order to control the political scene, he points out one trend which is perhaps the most significant of all: "Israel's continued expansion of West Bank settlements, and the land confiscation that goes with it.""Even as the world repeatedly calls for a freeze to all such activity," Roed- Larsen says, "it continues apace.

"The settlements, and the highways that serve them, could soon envelope East Jerusalem, cutting it off from the rest of the West Bank, which would then also be split in half.

Other settlement projects will bisect the northern West Bank and encircle Bethlehem and Hebron to the south".

Terje Roed-Larsen warns: "These trends will soon make it impossible to create a viable Palestinian state in control of its own land, borders and resources. The result: the death of the two-state solution."

Roed-Larsen's warning should be taken seriously in view of the fact that Sharon himself is the historic propagator of the "Jordan is Palestine" policy since the 1980s.

And what makes the "Transfer" notion more plausible than ever before, at least as far as the dominant "hawks" in both Israel and the United States are concerned, is the increasing talk about re-instating the Hashemite Kingdom in both Jordan and Iraq, as an option for a regime change in Baghdad.

Such a Kingdom, many members of the ruling Likud in Israel have been openly saying ,would provide both "ample space and better prosperity for the (transferred) Palestinians."

These views clash head-on with the three-year three-phase "Roadmap" by the "Quartet" (the U.S., the UN, the European Union and Russia) that would lead to a comprehensive peace.

The roadmap builds on a major diplomatic initiative from last spring's Arab League declaration to fully recognise Israel, based on the two-state solution, U.S. president George Walker Bush's Rose Garden speech last June and the recent reinforcement by the United Kingdom Prime Minister, Tony Blair, in a statement to the Labour Party annual conference, which clearly outlined the vision of a Palestinian State alongside Israel.

Moreover, the UN Security Council unanimously endorsed the Quartet Plan, which was unveiled in detail on September 17.

But the view from Israel is totally the opposite, as Sharon's government continues to create obstacles to almost any attempt to any serious talks with the Palestinians in order to move forward.

The British ambassador in Israel was cited last week by the leading Israeli daily, Yediot Ahronot, as saying the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT) were "the largest detention camp in the world."It is unusual for an ambassador in general, and a British one in particular, to make a political statement unless cleared beforehand, with their foreign ministry.

When confronted last week by the competitor Ha'aretz, the British ambassador, Sherard Cowper-Coles said he was "proud" of his comments to the Ahronot.

"The territories are the largest detention camp in the world, in which 3.5 million people live," the ambassador was cited as making these statements to the Ahronot during a meeting with the Israeli general administering the OPT, Amos Gilad.

"You have reduced the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to two vast concentration camps, you are imposing collective house arrest on hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians and you are hunting down innocent people in the streets."

Cowper-Coles was reported criticising Israel for continuing to "Build illegal settlements, the unnecessary humiliation and harassment of Palestinian civilians at check-points, unnecessary uprooting trees and making life difficult for the international welfare organisations."

Moreover, the British ambassador said Israel was "acting in violation of the international laws and Geneva Convention," and accused Israeli forces of displaying "instances of a lack of professionalism," in view of reported cases of soldiers looting properties during military operations in Palestinian cities and towns under curfews.

This also coincides with a recent condemning report by the Israeli Human Right Organisation "B'Tselem", in which it accuses the Israeli government of applying a "lethal curfew" on the Palestinians.

"For the past four months, Israel has imposed a full curfew, unprecedented in scope and length, on hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in the OPT. This curfew constitutes collective punishment, and as such is in contravention of international law," the report said.

Mustapha Karkouti is the former president, Foreign Press Association in London.



 

Without moral compass to guide America, there can't be peace

By Nihal Singh, Khaleej Times, 10/22/02

AS THE world waits to discover whether the American war juggernaut hurtling towards Iraq can be stopped short of the brink, the George W. Bush administration and Americans generally are learning a few hard lessons. There are limits to the power of even a lone superpower aspiring to be the Second Roman Empire. Second, and more importantly, without a moral compass and international law, the world would become chaotic and ungovernable.

Already, some of the swagger has gone out of American spokesmen, from President Bush down. The Bali carnage, the North Korean confession of working to acquire nuclear weapons and the international outrage at the self-appropriated American right to strike pre-emptively at any nation anywhere, any time have come thick and fast. The war to nab Osama bin Laden seems forgotten as Al Qaeda appears to pop up in diverse parts of the world.

The United States is the mightiest power in the world but how many dragons can it slay? And how much help can it expect from other countries when it has declared its contempt for any nation that chooses not to align with it? To begin with, the Bush administration has chosen to deal differently with Iraq and North Korea although the latter is already believed to be in possession of nuclear weapons. And there is silence on Iran, the third member of the Bush-declared axis of evil.

Judging by the national security document and the dominant set of presidential advisers, American ambitions have been set sky-high. The attempt is radically to reorder the world to suit American interests. It is, in effect, to complete the task begun after the end of the Ottoman Empire and the abolition of the Caliphate. Iraq is a key part of this grand plan because the churning of the roiling waters of the Middle East could lead to chaos that would enable the US to impose its own regimes and order while controlling a large part of the world's oil supply.

Such a dispensation would also serve another American strategic aim: to give Israel even greater regional supremacy by emasculating Palestinian hopes of a viable sovereign state. Washington's decision to send an emissary to the Middle East is a mere sop to appear to be doing something about the Palestinian problem while calling Iraq to account for breaching previous UN resolutions. Israel remains defiant of all UN resolutions, and often of the United Nations itself.

The US has traditionally declared that it has all the domestic authority to fight the war against Iraq, but President Bush chose to go to the UN because he realised he would need the help of other nations, apart from Britain, to take on his enemy. And there are risks in destroying the international system and set of rules America primarily helped to crystallise after the end of World War II. These risks are becoming more apparent every day. America has declared loud and clear that it is against international treaties and covenants that limit its freedom of action and has even scoffed at the usefulness of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, given the great military disparities between it and other members. The message it is signalling is that the world needs America, America does not need the world.

The US saw the anti-Iraq resolution it had initially proposed to the UN Security Council as a fig-leaf to cover its unilateralist designs on Iraq. But the tussle over it among the council's permanent members was an indication of the weaker countries' efforts to try to hold Washington to accepted international rules and norms. The world was unimpressed by American threats that it did not need any UN resolution to go to war against Iraq. Why then had President Bush gone to the UN to seek its approval, albeit with braggadocio?

Apart from the fact that even the most powerful nation needs wider support to impose its power on the world, there must be a moral compass to guide its actions. That compass does not even assume a belief in Almighty God, but the progress of mankind has been predicated on a set of values that has defined the post-Renaissance modern age. Indeed, the very concept of democracy America ostensibly espouses around the world is premised on public welfare and public good in a setting in which rules must take precedence over the power and riches of individual citizens.

Throughout history conquerors have imposed their rules on the conquered but the brave new world America sought to build after World War II was based on assumptions of morality. Granted, the powerful bended rules on occasion to promote their interests, but never since 1945 has one nation declared its intention of scrapping all rules and covenants and morality to achieve unsurpassed superiority. The irony is that the cutting edge of technology that has made America so powerful has also made the weak and the oppressed more dangerous for the lone superpower, as America was to discover on September 11, 2001.

More than a year after the September 11 tragedy, the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency is giving public warnings about more devastating terrorist attacks to come. Indeed, the American attempt to rule the world has been frustrated by the amorphous nature of the terrorist threat and America's inability to rest in peace until it decides to abjure its maximalist goals and respect the international code of morality and conduct.

America will find out that if it perseveres in fighting a new war against Iraq, the central issue of the injustice being done to the Palestinian people will continue to haunt it and the wider world. Terrorism cannot be fought merely by superiority in arms and technology and while the George W. Bush administration might believe that the age of neo-imperialism has arrived, with America as the supreme coloniser, the oppressed Palestinians will rebel in any manner they can. Without a moral compass to guide the world, there cannot be peace.

In the administration of George W. Bush, the tortuous journey of the anti-Iraq resolution is a salutary early warning signal of the disasters that lie ahead, should America persevere in its new empire-building exercise. The Second Roman Empire would then be still-born.

 

 


 

 

The hypocrisy of attacking Iraq: A letter to Representative Stephen Lynch

By Doreen Miller
YellowTimes.org 

(YellowTimes.org) – Recently I contacted Massachusetts Representative Stephen Lynch to discourage him from supporting President Bush's Congressional request for the authority to forcefully remove Saddam Hussein from power. Below is Representative Lynch's response. Not being satisfied with his justification of supporting President Bush, I replied to his letter with one of my own. My letter can be found under Representative Lynch's letter below.

October 11, 2002

Dear Ms. Miller:

Thank you for contacting my office to share your views on the President's request for authority to use force to disarm Saddam Hussein should he determine it necessary to protect our national security. Please know that I appreciate hearing your views on this extremely important matter.

As you may know, the House of Representatives just concluded three days of open and thoughtful debate on the resolution H.J. Res. 114, which would grant the President's request. On Thursday, October 10, the House approved this resolution in a bipartisan vote of 296 to 133. In its final form, this resolution urges the President to exhaust all diplomatic efforts to disarm Hussein and to work closely with the United Nations, but provides the authority for him to use our armed forces should these efforts fail.

I want you to know that this question weighed very heavily on me, and it is the most difficult decision I have had to make during my eleven months in Congress.

After attending numerous briefings at the White House and with defense officials, as well as independent briefings with foreign policy experts such as the former chief U.N. weapons inspector during the Clinton administration, I have come to the conclusion that the danger to the American people as a result of a failure to act against Saddam Hussein is simply too great.

In reaching my decision to support the authorizing resolution, I have focused on the undisputed facts. Saddam Hussein has developed and deployed chemical and biological weapons. Despite Saddam Hussein's denials, we know that he has actively sought to develop a nuclear weapon since the early 1970s, a pursuit that he accelerated during the Gulf War. He has murdered thousands of his own citizens with chemical weapons.

We also know that Saddam Hussein has already given aid and support to terrorist organizations and indeed has engaged in terrorist actions himself, such as ordering an assassination attempt against former President George Bush in 1993. He has committed environmental terrorism by setting fire to Kuwaiti oil fields and dumping raw crude oil into the ocean during the Gulf War. More recently he has authorized payments to the families of suicide bombers who would take the lives of innocent civilians. He has given shelter to terrorists within his own country.

As one who shares the responsibility to protect Americans at home and abroad, I cannot and will not stake tens of thousands of American lives or our long-term national security on a hope that Saddam Hussein will reverse 25 years of deceit and aggression. The consequences of a failure to act in this instance may be felt here, in our cities and towns, by our own civilian population. That is the nature of the threat that we face. Unless this man is disarmed, until we know that he no longer has and will not ever develop these devastating weapons, we will not be safe and international peace will continue to be threatened.

We are working with the international community through the United Nations to build a consensus on a course of action that will force Hussein to comply with U.N. mandates. This process is important, and I believe we must continue to try to work with the United Nations. Saddam Hussein is not just a threat to America, he is a threat to world peace.

I understand that there are those who have come to a different conclusion. But because I believe that the security of our nation is at stake, I feel in my heart that it is in the best interests of our country to give the President this authority to address this threat.

Again, I do appreciate your willingness to get involved and I welcome your input.

Sincerely,

Stephen F. Lynch
Member of Congress

 

************************************

 

Below is my response to Representative Lynch's letter:

October 13, 2002

Dear Representative Lynch:

While I appreciate your attempt to justify your decision to abdicate your constitutional duty in determining war matters and the use of our military forces by handing over that decision to one man, the President, I feel compelled to respond to your feeble excuses and blatant disregard for one of the most crucial responsibilities of Congress outlined in the Constitution. Your reckless action has taken this country one step further away from being a government "of, for and by the people" and has pushed us several dangerous steps closer to a dictatorship where the use of our very powerful military is to be determined by the whims and questionable aspirations of one man.

Granted, we both agree that Saddam is a tyrant, but you fail to see or even acknowledge the role our very own government has played in creating this monster. In outlining "the undisputed facts," you consistently paint only half a picture. "Saddam Hussein has developed and deployed chemical and biological weapons." It should be added here that the USA (up until 1991) was eagerly supplying Saddam with the chemicals and biological agents needed to manufacture these weapons so that he could use them against our then mortal enemy, Iran.

"[Saddam] has actively sought to develop nuclear weapons since the early 1970s..." Yes, and so have countless other regimes, most notably Pakistan, whom we have recently befriended out of convenience for our own geopolitical gains. Also remember, the USA has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, is the only country to have actually used them against civilian populations, and has recently threatened to use them in first, pre-emptive strikes, if necessary. Just how horrifying is that?

"He has murdered thousands of his own citizens with chemical weapons." This is a despicable fact, indeed; however, surely it is but a clever ploy on your part to completely overlook the U.S. role in this as well. We provided Saddam with the weapons. We looked the other way when it happened, initially attempting to blame this atrocity on Iran. We even "rewarded" Saddam's actions by increasing our logistical military and financial support. Our part in enabling this demon means that we, too, must share the guilt in the deaths of the Kurds. At the end of the Gulf War, the Shiites in southern Iraq were brutally slaughtered as the U.S. ignored their pleas for protection and passively looked on, not wanting to "get involved" or to pursue Saddam any deeper into Iraq. We could very easily have justified defending the Shiites against this man, yet we chose not to defend them. Their blood was spilled because of our self-serving negligence.

As for Saddam giving aid, support, and shelter to terrorist organizations, before the USA points the accusatory finger elsewhere, it needs to clean up its own act first, by disbanding the many anti-Cuban, Florida-based terrorist organizations that have been launching terrorist campaigns against Cuba since 1961. The accusatory finger of guilt points both ways.

Saddam may have ordered an assassination attempt against President Bush I in 1993, yet, just recently, I recall President Bush II calling for Saddam's assassination. In fact, the USA has a long, bloody history of CIA-led assassinations of democratically elected leaders, who were targeted because they were regarded as "USA unfriendly," in various countries around the world. In spite of assuming the moral high ground, we are really not much better than any other power-hungry nation, as a careful study of our history will reveal.

Mr. Lynch, please, spare me the "environmental terrorism" line. The USA has been waging a much more subtle and devastating terrorism against the earth for decades, in our use of man-made chemicals that poison our food, soil, water, and air; in the newly unleashed biological pollution through genetically manipulated crops which we are attempting to force upon the rest of the world; in the raping of unique ecosystems through mountaintop removal, strip mining, deforestation, drilling for oil in ecologically vulnerable areas; and the list goes on. We produce the most pollution of any nation on this planet, yet we consistently and defiantly refuse to work together with other nations to curb our dirty, destructive ways.

I am deeply concerned about your ability to represent the will of the people, especially since the bulk of calls going into Washington about this resolution were running overwhelmingly against war with Iraq. Were you not elected to represent the will of the people? Isn't that what our founding fathers would have expected of you?

I am equally concerned that you should be so easily swayed by such cheap, political trickery as the use of half-truths and over-exaggeration. Just because the President or his carefully selected (and prompted) "experts" say so, does not make something true. Have you not seen or even read the newly released intelligence reports out of Washington that debunk all the posits, suspicions and presumptions Mr. Bush and his administration are touting as "indisputable facts" about Iraq? Or, do you simply not care?

Do you not care that possibly thousands of American and Iraqi citizens will be sacrificed in Bush's sure-to-be-disastrous attempt to oust one man? Is that not the ultimate misuse of our military? Is that not the highest form of insanity?

War is a very primitive means of settling disputes and differences. With the level of evolution we as a human species have reached, you'd think we would have moved beyond state-sanctioned killing and murder. Unfortunately, your decision has proven to me once again that those in positions of power seem to be the most primitive of all.

Most sincerely yours,

Doreen Miller
YellowTimes.org

[Doreen Miller lived, studied, worked and traveled abroad for several years, and is currently a Senior Lecturer and educator of international students. She dedicates part of her time to serving the elderly and Alzheimer patients. Mother, musician and poet, she pursues an avid interest in Buddhist and Eastern philosophy. She advocates human rights, social justice, fair trade, and environmental protection. Doreen lives in the United States.]

Doreen Miller encourages your comments: dmiller@YellowTimes.org

 

 


 

 

  For lasting peace in the Middle East
Hassan Tahsin, Special to Arab News, 10/23/02

In December 1967, Christian Barnard, a South African, performed the first human organ transplant operation when he transplanted the heart of a 24 year-old black man, who had died in a car accident, into a 54-year-old white man.

The operation was a success but the white man who received the new heart lived only for 18 days. The doctors who performed the operation were not able to save him, as the medicine that helps a body to accept a foreign organ was not available in those days.

I remembered this incident while I was following up a joint press conference of Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres with his Egyptian counterpart Ahmed Maher in Cairo recently. Peres was apparently slow and skeptical while answering questions as he did not want to say that his bloodthirsty prime minister has any clear peace plan.

Those who saw that press conference might have noticed that Peres had a strong feeling that his presence was unwanted and that his colonialist state was an intruder in the region. The Arab body has rejected Israel like the body of the white man that rejected the heart of the African youth.

While talking about the peace plan, Peres intentionally ignored the Saudi-initiated Arab peace plan, although the questions raised by reporters on the issue were very clear. He insisted that his country would accept the American peace plan, which is still a political mystery. Then he started talking about democracy, thinking that there are people who believe that the military government in Israel is democratic and is an example to follow. Israel’s rejection of the Arab peace proposal will be a big mistake and will certainly be missing a golden opportunity.

After several years, medical scientists found a medicine that will enable a human body to accommodate a foreign organ, on condition that a person take it for the rest of his life. Such is the condition of Israel, which always needs the unqualified support of the United States because of its presence in the Arab world. But one thing they should bear in mind is that the American tablet is dependent upon Washington’s strategic interests in the region.

On the other hand, the Arab peace plan is the best one as it allows Israel to remain in the region as a secure country in the region. The Arab peace plan calls for total Israeli withdrawal from Arab land, dismantling of Jewish settlements in Arab territory and recognition of Palestinian rights, including the right to establish an independent state. In return, all Arab countries will recognize Israel and its existence within its internationally recognized borders. They will also cooperate with Israel in all areas as part of normalization.

All other peace proposals are temporary solutions. They will not help achieve peace. They will only help give Israel more time to grab more Arab territories and prevent the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.

The presence of the butcher Sharon in power will not help peace. The Israeli policies of terrorism, destruction of houses and farms and massacre of civilians will not succeed. A country established on racism, religious bias and force will not remain long among countries and societies known for their great history, noble descent and honorable lineage.



 

Confrontation can be counterproductive
By Jonathan Power

TAIWAN — At first the news from North Korea seemed like an almighty setback to those who believe we can deal with grave security problems more by engagement rather than confrontation.

Not only did it appear to knock the shine off Jimmy Carter’s Nobel Peace Prize, since his greatest achievement, apart from Camp David, was his successful diplomacy that brokered the 1994 freeze on the country’s nuclear-bomb making, it appeared it might well open the doors again to those Republicans who eight years ago were arguing for the US to bomb North Korea.

A strange thing appears to have happened in those eight years. For all the bluster with President George Bush’s notion of an "Axis of Evil", no longer is the talk this wild. The accent is all on diplomacy and an emphasizing of what is still apparently being honored in the old 1994 agreement, the freezing of plutonium production, the most potent raw material for nuclear bomb manufacture.

Eight years ago, Brent Scowcroft, the former National Security Advisor to president George Bush Sr. (and now the dove on going to war with Iraq) said that President Bill Clinton would be making a terrible mistake if the US did not immediately bomb the North Korean reprocessing plant before the cooling rods containing plutonium, sufficient to make half a dozen nuclear weapons, could be transferred to it.

In the end, Carter was able to pull off his remarkable diplomacy because Clinton feared the consequences of war. The Pentagon told him that the US could lose 50,000 troops. Also that it was possible that North Korea already had in its arsenal two or three nuclear weapons and that if the regime thought it might lose the war it would use these.

Nothing has really changed in the interim to alter the dangers of going to war. The US many times broke its side of the bargain. At various times a Republican-dominated Congress made it impossible for the administration to deliver on various parts of the US side of the bargain, in particular the ending of the trade embargo. And now the North has broken in the most blatant manner possible an important element in the nuclear freeze, (although it should be stressed it doesn’t appear to have actually gone into nuclear bomb production).

The war option is no more viable than it was eight years ago. It comes as no surprise that Japan, the country, apart from South Korea, that has the most to fear from North Korea’s nuclear armament and missile programs, is arguing that the 1994 agreement needs to be revitalized not abandoned. And perhaps indeed the North Korean admission of its clandestine activity is more a cry for openness and creative diplomacy than a new threat to deliver nuclear annihilation.

Here in Taiwan there is a sense of wait and see. Taiwan is used to living under threat. The antagonist it faces across the Taiwan Strait is far larger, better armed and in every way more formidable than North Korea. It is five years since the last blow up in this delicate relationship. Angry at Taiwan’s attempt to break out of its diplomatic isolation with a quasi-official visit of Taiwan’s president to America China "test-fired" missiles in the Taiwan Strait, only to be met by a dramatic show of US naval strength in the same waters. But since then, and particularly with the electoral victory of the longtime opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party, the relationship has quietened.

It may not be harmony and it is still subject to sudden flare-ups, as when President Chen Shui-bian in August spoke of there being "one country on each side" of the Strait. But each crisis seems to occur at more distant intervals and the wind goes out of them quicker each time.

There are some here who argue that Taiwan is being slowly throttled by the Chinese diplomatic embargo, but it’s hard to believe that when the Taiwanese economic presence in the mainland is growing by leaps and bounds and China is becoming increasingly reliant on Taiwanese high-tech expertise and when Chinese tourists in droves can be seen milling around the Chinese art treasures in the National Palace Museum.

There is the occasional voice in the legislature arguing for Taiwan to develop its own nuclear weapons so that China would no longer dare intimidate the island. And there are those, like Vice President Annette Lu who, in an interview with me, try to fudge the one-China issue by saying "We are one Chinese". All such voices tend to have somewhere at the back of their mind an independent Taiwan as their goal.

But this will never work out. China is too vast and too powerful to be deflected from its goal of a unified China (which the US formally supports) — even if Taiwan started to build nuclear weapons. Indeed, that would provoke China to move pre-emptively.

The issue is more subtle: how to make sure China respects the individuality and personality of Taiwan. This means above all respect for Taiwan’s democracy, rule of law and total autonomy in domestic affairs- not like Hong Kong where since re-union some important principles have been undermined, not least the commitment to proceed to democracy.

The main goal for Taiwan must be the same goal as in America’s dealing with North Korea — the avoidance of war. There is no point in standing up for human rights and benign principles if the method chosen is so antagonistic it leads to war. War is the worst of all human wrongs and as it runs its course every human right in the book is smashed to pieces.

As with North Korea, engagement rather than confrontation is the path to take.

 


 

 

  What Kennedy would have said to Bush
By Rupert Cornwell

US President Bush’s confrontation with Saddam Hussein is heaven for addicts of historical parallelism. For some, Saddam is Hitler, and Europeans who refuse to confront him are committing a new Munich. Alternatively, the US risks being dragged into a new Vietnam. But the comparison even Bush invites is with the Cuban missile crisis.

Exactly 40 years ago, at 7 p.m. on Monday, Oct. 22 1962, President Kennedy went on television to reveal the existence of Soviet missile bases in Cuba, 90 miles from the southernmost territory of Florida, and announced he was imposing a "quarantine" or blockade of the island. Nikita Khrushchev immediately denounced the US action as "piracy". With Soviet ships sailing toward the blockade, nuclear war seemed possible, if not probable.

Today, both supporters and opponents of military action against Saddam use Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis to bolster their cause. Bush has donned the JFK mantle by quoting from his 1962 address, and its warning that the world could not tolerate "deliberate deception and offensive threats on the part of any nation great or small". No longer, said Bush/ Kennedy, did only "the actual firing of weapons represent a sufficient challenge to a nation’s security to constitute maximum peril".

But Ted Kennedy, an opponent of a pre-emptive strike, has drawn the opposite lesson. To support his argument that a strike against Iraq now would be "unilateralism run amok", he recalled his brother Robert’s comment 40 years ago that an attack on Cuba would be a "Pearl Harbor in reverse".

In fact, both sides distort history. Ted Kennedy conveniently forgets that his brother did launch a pre-emptive strike against Cuba, in May 1961. It was called the Bay of Pigs and was a total fiasco. But the greater distortion is Bush’s.

Cuba then and Iraq now are basically incompatible. Yes, there are a few similarities. Like JFK, Bush is a newish President with many doubters. They both had an eye on approaching mid-term elections. Partly as a result of Kennedy’s resolution of the missile crisis, his Democrats made gains in those elections. Bush hopes the same will happen in 2002.

But what threat? The Cuban crisis was a genuine time of fear. The adversary was the rival superpower, and Kennedy told his countrymen that America would not shrink from the risk of "worldwide nuclear war" to force the removal of the missiles. I was a schoolboy then, and remember a master talking about an event planned the next week — "if there is a next week".

Compare and contrast the situation now. The opponent is Saddam Hussein, leader of a ramshackle, pariah country 6,000 miles from the US. The danger he poses is that he might have a nuclear weapon a year or two hence. Even if he developed one, he could not hit the US with it. And however erratic Saddam’s career, one constant is his aversion to self-immolation.

Yes, he is an irritant, whose thwarting of the United Nations and general durability drives the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld crowd mad. His record is indisputably appalling, and the world, not to mention his long-suffering country, would be better off without him.

But as a threat to US national security, Saddam hardly rates; as a menace to the American way of life, he is not a patch on the Washington sniper. Back in 1962, Kennedy’s stand against the Soviet Union had broad international support. Bush’s militaristic designs on Iraq, by contrast have little backing beyond Britain.

Many personal roles too are reversed this time around. In 1962 the generals were urging Kennedy to invade and dare Khrushchev to respond; this time the Pentagon’s uniformed commanders counsel caution, to the annoyance of their civilian bosses. Having served in World War II, Kennedy understood the horrors of conflict; the Bush who seems so eager to unleash the US military against Iraq spent the Vietnam years in the Texas National Guard.

But for all the differences, Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban crisis offers lessons today. His aides remember his constant looking ahead, the questions about the impact of a particular decision, the "what happens if". Kennedy’s adviser and speechwriter Ted Sorensen warned against "actions that history could neither understand nor forget", and his president took the advice to heart.

Like Kennedy, Bush faces an eternal dilemma. "If you want peace, prepare for war", runs the old Roman dictum. Just as in 1962 against the Soviet Union, the threat of force is essential now to secure the desired peaceful outcome, in this case of persuading Saddam to disarm.

Kennedy faithfully applied the immortal rule of negotiating laid down by Ernest Bevin, which applies as much to international negotiation as to the trade union bargaining at which Attlee’s great foreign secretary also excelled: "The first thing to decide before you walk into any negotiation is what to do if the other chap says ‘no’." Obviously Bevin’s maxim does not apply with Iraq. The entire world agrees there is nothing to negotiate with Saddam Hussein. Rather, has Bush thought ahead to what happens when the other chap isn’t there any more? It is then that the Iraq crisis, in a very different way, could become as risky as the Cuban missile crisis 40 years ago. (The Independent)

 


 

 

  Blair’s cheerleading, Chirac’s criticism taming Bush, so far
By Hugo Young

LONDON — The prospect of war over Iraq has grown a bit more distant, thanks to the opposite stances taken by two national leaders. Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac have each made vibrant contributions. There is no European foreign policy; in fact there are three or four different Iraq positions among EU member states. But Blair and Chirac have achieved a synthesis of influence. Had they been colluding, which has been only intermittently the case, we could call this the soft-cop hard-cop routine. It may well come to nothing, in face of the resistance of the third leader, George Bush. But the British way and the French way have parallel, not contradictory, importance.

Blair is the soft and faithful ally. It becomes clearer why he finds Bush easier to deal with than his old soulmate, Bill Clinton. This claim sounded weird, when it first seeped out of Downing Street. But the moral simplicities Bush applies to the state of the world are like our leader’s own. Whereas Clinton was sinuous and ambivalent — in other words, a realist — Bush is as bold as Blair in the lines he draws between good and evil states, and in his righteous determination to move against the evil ones. Not only is Saddam Hussein atrociously evil, today’s Anglos and Americans agree he must be destroyed.

For Blair this is a calculated as well as instinctive position. His mantra is: Show total fidelity to Washington in public, or sacrifice all influence there in public and in private. For the last year he has excelled himself, delivering onslaughts against Saddam, and making brazenly unproven claims of linkage between Iraq and Al-Qaeda terrorism, with more fluency and power than Bush can ever find. No enemies on the right — that has been Blair’s watchword in this matter, even though he’s praying that the solutions of the hard right, the unilateralist Pentagon right, are never ventured.

So far, though, he has not wasted his opportunities to avert this. That’s to his credit. It makes the case for his public cheerleading. Ever since Bush came in, he has had a twin-track strategy, to be supportive in general, but resistant in particular.

If it hadn’t been for Blair, Bush would never have agreed to the NATO-Russia Council, which was put together over the near-dead body of Donald Rumsfeld. If it hadn’t been for Blair, it’s doubtful whether Bush would have begun to understand the importance of having a strand of nation-building — thin and cheap, but not yet abandoned — in his policy for Afghanistan. And it’s certain that Blair supplied a crucial push at the right time, early in September, that took Bush to the UN and deepened presidential awareness that the cost of ignoring the international community would probably be to make an Iraq war self-destructive.

Without that, we would not be where we are today, listening to a seismic UN Security Council wrangle over the words of an anti-Iraq resolution. All EU governments whose opinion I’ve been able to gather agree that Blair has played a crucial role here.

Far from sneering at his relationship with Bush, they privately see it as the last best hope for sanity. They wholly welcome the fact that one European voice gets a hearing in Washington. Which is where the French come in.

Unless Blair had helped open the door, France would have had no opportunity to start rearranging the international house. Chirac, emboldened by his new strength at home, became the critical figure, more so than Russia and certainly more than China, in taming the American demand for a UN carte blanche for war. This is a Gaullist assertion of French importance, but also a serious attempt to refine the international order as Bush and the Pentagon would like to shape it.

Washington has proved somewhat amenable to Chirac as well as Blair. We see that public fealty is not the only route to influence. Each nation to its history and tradition. The final text is still unagreed, but clearly will not include the automatic resort to force, in the event of Saddam blocking the inspectors, that Washington first demanded. As long as France, having enraged the Americans with her nit-picking, knows when to quit arguing, the episode will go down as a major success for French diplomacy. It may be true, as Jack Straw keeps saying, that Iraq would not have budged on inspectors without the threat of war. But it’s also true that a UN, rather than purely US, outcome will essentially be the result of French persistence, as a result of which the world may be marginally safer.

That depends on what happens. Internationalism, aka the UN, remains at risk from two eventualities. The US might still wreck the UN by treating the inspection process with cynicism, and insisting on its right to attack Iraq anyway: Its spokesmen never fail to hint at this possibility, with Straw chorusing alongside. Equally, the UN could wreck itself by continuing, even in the face of Iraqi obstruction, to resist the military response that is at least implicit in the compromise for which France has been pressing. Each side, the Anglo-Americans and Arabic-Europeans, has to tread a delicate line. There is not a one-way street to disaster accessible by the Americans alone.

Where the parallelism between Blair and Chirac breaks down, however, is in the event of their shared objective failing. If Bush decides to attack without UN approval, the damage caused to Britain will be more telling than the anger aroused in Chirac and the French. It would present Blair with the worst domestic political crisis of his prime ministership. He would have been driven helplessly toward a war another leader had determined to start, the morality of which was lost on much of his own party and perhaps a majority of the British people but he himself had come wholly to believe in. Chirac, by contrast, would be laughing all the way to the bank where oil, trade and the affection of the Arab world are stored.

Both leaders have proved that Washington can be influenced for good; and Washington, to its credit, has judged, contrary to the instincts of Vice President Cheney and the loudest Pentagon civilians, that the spectacle of making some concessions can do it no harm. Domestic American politics, which is anti-terrorism but not all pro-war, is pushing the White House to appear more reasonable. To that extent, it seems to have climbed down.

But Blair has every reason to fear Bush climbing back up again. However compliant his rhetoric, the prime minister knows as well as anyone that attacking Iraq is more likely to increase than diminish the threat from Al-Qaeda. He talks a moral game, but is aware of the political costs it will entail when he loses control of it. He would intensely prefer Iraq not to happen, at least not yet. So would Chirac. The difference is that Chirac can afford to make that clear, whereas Blair has left no retreat from participating in an all-out invasion that could lead to several catastrophes. (The Guardian)

 

 


 

US secret war against Saddam enters new phase
Pentagon awaits second chance to eliminate bush family nemesis

‘We have the authority to assassinate people before they can assassinate us’

Ed Blanche
Special to The Daily Star

On the evening of Feb. 27, 1991, only hours before George W. Bush’s father called a halt to Operation Desert Storm, two US Air Force F-111 bombers, callsigns Cardinal 1 and 2, dropped two 1,800-kilogram penetration bombs on an underground bunker near Al-Taji Air Base, northwest of Baghdad, which senior Iraqi commanders were known to use. The huge bombs, known as GBU-28s, had been specially made to target Saddam Hussein and had been flown to Taif Air Base in Saudi Arabia in a giant C-141 transport from Florida only five hours earlier.
The raid was the Americans’ last desperate bid to kill the Iraqi leader before the cease-fire took effect. Cardinal 1 swept in from the east and dropped its bomb, but it missed. Cardinal 2 scored a direct hit, destroying the bunker buried 15 meters underground, which earlier strikes with 900-kilogram “penetrators” had failed to knock out. Several hours later US military commanders learned that Saddam had not been in the bunker, as they had hoped.
Now, 12 years on, Saddam faces renewed attempts to kill him as Bush the younger picks up where his father left off. But this time, the game has changed. Bush the younger is out to wipe the slate clean and seems to be prepared to rid himself of the troublesome tyrant by any and all means. He wants Saddam out of the way, “dead or alive.” He said the same thing about Osama bin Laden, but that nemesis still eludes the American president. Without bin Laden’s scalp on his belt ­ to use the cowboy idiom that Bush has chosen to characterize his war against terrorism ­ Saddam has become a convenient substitute.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer made it abundantly clear on Oct. 1 that the administration would be only too happy to see Saddam assassinated ­ by his own people, of course. US law prohibits the assassination of foreign leaders, but Bush and his gung-ho defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, have given the Central Intelligence Agency and the military’s special forces virtual carte blanche to ensure that Saddam gets taken down once and for all by whatever means necessary.
Fleischer’s comments were the bluntest made by a senior administration official about the options of achieving “regime change” in Iraq without a war. Asked about congressional cost estimates of $9 billion-$13 billion for a start-up for the war against Iraq, he said that Bush had not yet made the decision to go to war, adding: “I can only say that the cost of a one-way ticket is substantially less than that. The cost of one bullet, if the Iraqi people take it upon themselves, is substantially less than that.”
He hastened to add: “This is not a statement of administration policy. The point is that if the Iraqis took matters into their own hands, no one around the world would shed a tear.  Regime change is welcome in whatever form it takes.”
Whatever way Bush and his advisers put it, there seems little doubt the decision has been made to kill Saddam if the opportunity presents itself. Officials have said, for instance, that there are no plans to put Saddam on trial for war crimes or crimes against humanity, such as repeatedly and systematically using poison gas against his own people, at The Hague or anywhere else. The brutal dictator whom Trent Lott, the Republican leader in the Senate , has taken to calling “So Damn Insane” is firmly in America’s crosshairs again. His death is an implicit aim of efforts to establish a US-backed regime in Baghdad.
During the six-week air campaign in 1991, 260 of 36,046 “strike sorties” were designated “L” for leadership. That was less than 1 percent of the bombing missions, but these attacks, which included Saddam’s palaces and other buildings he was known to frequent, were intended to decapitate the regime. No doubt, similar attacks will be mounted in the looming war.
Robert Gates, then a national security adviser and later director of the CIA, recalled that the White House of Bush the elder “lit a candle every night hoping that Saddam Hussein would be killed in a bunker. Those candles will be lit again if we have to bomb again. Command and control sites will be targeted and we hope that Saddam’s in one of them.”
Assassinating Saddam would be the most obvious and expedient way of getting rid of him. But it is prohibited by Executive Order No. 11905, signed by President Gerald Ford on Feb. 18, 1976, following political scandals caused by bungled CIA efforts to assassinate foreign leaders in the 1960s and early 1970s. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, remembered as the Church Committee, concluded on Nov. 20, 1975, that plots against five foreign leaders under Presidents Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon were deliberately organized in terms “so ambiguous that it is difficult to be certain at what levels assassination activity was known and authorized.”
That simple 22-word document was endorsed by three successive presidents ­ Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George Bush (the elder) and was enshrined in its present form ­ “No person employed or acting on behalf of the United States government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassinations ­ by Executive Order No. 12333, signed by Reagan, on Dec. 4, 1981. But this has not prevented the US from carrying out operations against foreign leaders, usually under the guise of “military operations” rather than singling out individuals, a fine distinction by any standard.
Since Sept. 11, 2001, demands that the presidential ban on assassinations be rescinded ­ which Bush the younger can do without consulting lawmakers ­ have swelled significantly with little public opposition. How far tempers have cooled amid the beat of Bush’s war drums is not clear, but only a few political voices have cautioned against removing such restraints that would mark a dramatic change in the ethics of US foreign policy. If Bush formally declares war against Iraq, Saddam would automatically become a legitimate target.
Secretary of State Colin Powell has said that rules governing military and intelligence operations, including Ford’s 1976 ban on assassinations, were under review. “We have to have the authority to assassinate people before they can assassinate us,” said Senator Bob Graham, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Given Bush’s warlike rhetoric and his espousal of pre-emptive strikes against those deemed enemies of the US, it would seem reasonable to assume that he is in favor of lifting the ban. In July, the CIA ditched its 1995 guidelines limiting agents’ freedom to recruit “dirty” informers ­ people involved in criminal or terrorist activities ­ in the field after Congress criticized the agency’s failure to penetrate Al-Qaeda and learn of bin Laden’s plans for the suicide attacks that killed more than 3,000 people last year.
Apart from the vexing moral questions that jettisoning the assassination ban would raise, it would also emphasize the Bush administration’s hypocrisy in denouncing Israel’s policy of assassinating Palestinian militants, what the administration euphemistically calls “targeted killings.” This is an issue that has drawn the ire of Israel’s supporters in Congress, who have branded it a “double standard.” No doubt, if Bush rescinds the ban, it would mean his administration would no longer be able to criticize Israel’s actions, intensifying the growing anti-US hostility sweeping the Arab world.
Bill Clinton paved the way for stepping up clandestine operations by US military and intelligence forces. He authorized covert lethal force against Al-Qaeda in 1998, including shooting down private aircraft if the Saudi renegade or his lieutenants were believed to be aboard, and ordered the CIA to train and equip surrogate forces in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan to kill or capture bin Laden. A 60-strong Pakistani commando team was poised to strike in October 1999, but the operation was canceled when General Pervez Musharraf deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a military coup.
And shortly after the carnage of Sept. 11, 2001, Bush the younger was reported to have signed a more comprehensive “presidential finding” which concluded that the executive orders banning assassination did not prevent the president from lawfully singling out a terrorist for death by covert action by intelligence agencies. Whether that would cover Saddam is not clear, but given Bush’s efforts to link the Iraqi leader to Al-Qaeda, that is probably the case.
On Sept. 17, 2001, six days after the suicide attacks on America, Bush declared Osama bin Laden “wanted dead or alive.” Fleischer said Executive Order 12333 remained in effect, but insisted that “it does not inhibit the nation’s ability to act in self-defense.” No doubt this could be bent to include Saddam and his cronies.
Away from the legalistic hoops of the presidential orders, the ban has left some wriggle room and US administrations have shown little hesitation in targeting foreign leaders through military action, where a separate chain of command is involved and which uses separate legal instruments for such operations. The Reagan administration hatched several plots to eliminate Moammar Gadhafi, including one by the notorious Colonel Oliver North, who helped plunge the Reagan presidency into near-collapse through the 1986 Iran-Contra scandal.
In the event, US bombers attacked Tripoli and Benghazi on the night of April 5, 1986, including the Azziziya Barracks in the capital, listed as a “terrorist-related target,” where the Libyan leader was sleeping in a tent in the courtyard.
Planners insisted that they were not targeting Gadhafi ­ that might have been just a little too close to assassination  ­ but aiming at command-and-control centers. If Gadhafi just happened to be under one of their bombs or rockets, that would just have been his tough luck. Gadhafi survived.
The issue arose again with Bush the elder’s invasion of Panama on Dec. 29, 1989, by 24,000 troops who seized General Manuel Noriega, an indicted drug trafficker accused of threatening US lives, and removed him from power. Abraham Sofaer, then the State Department’s chief legal adviser, said both the Reagan and Bush administrations had “concluded that the assassination prohibition relates to assassination, which is really a form of murder, and that military actions do not constitute assassinations.”
Thus it was that during the 1999 NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia, President Slobodan Milosevic’s mansion was attacked, even though assassinating him was not supposed to be an option for the US. Milosevic was not harmed during the US bombing strike. The Defense Department’s spokesman at the time, Kenneth Bacon, declared with a straight face: “We’re not targeting President Milosevic or the Serb people. We’re targeting the military and the military infrastructure that supports the instruments of oppression in Kosovo.”
The then-deputy attorney-general, Eric Holder, said the bombing of Milosevic’s home was within the guidelines given to the military by the Justice Department, which included “command and control facilities.”
The scenario of senior Iraqis overthrowing Saddam ­ the so-called “silver bullet” approach ­ has been central to CIA efforts to bring down the regime. But the administration should not expect too much in its hope that Saddam’s domestic opponents, not inhibited by US executive orders, will kill him or depose him on their own. Saddam, who is paranoid about his personal security, has survived dozens of coup plots and assassination attempts since he took power from his kinsman, Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr, on July 17, 1979, after a decade of being the real power as Bakr’s deputy.
He is reported to have a protection force of some 10,000 handpicked troops. He is believed to have at least three lookalikes, some of whom underwent plastic surgery, to confuse his enemies. He rarely makes public appearances and, according to defectors, his movements are known only to a few trusted aides around him, who are the only ones with direct access to him.
The Clinton administration was primarily confined to a policy of “containing” Saddam, but it also authorized the biggest CIA operation since the 1979-89 Afghan war in an attempt to undermine his rule. A 1994-95 CIA-sponsored plot involving exiled Iraqi military and political leaders based in Amman to get senior Iraqi Army officers to kill or seize Saddam and establish a new regime fell apart disastrously after Saddam’s agents infiltrated the group and executed those involved inside Iraq.
In August 1995, CIA agents had to flee Iraqi Kurdistan, protected since 1991 by an allied no-fly zone, when Saddam sent his troops in to teach Kurdish rebels a lesson. But now by all accounts the CIA, as well as military special forces teams, are back and plotting to get Saddam, preferably dead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


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