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Biljana Plavsic: Way forward
Arab News, 18 December 2002

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The thoughts of former Bosnian Serb President Biljana Plavsic can only be guessed at while she listened yesterday to former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright speaking on her behalf at The Hague Tribunal.

Plavsic, who has pleaded guilty to crimes against humanity had, when she was deputy to Serbian President Radovan Karadzic, shown no mercy or concern for the plight of the Bosnians and Croats who were being butchered by her regime. Yet here was a former adversary from the US, stating in mitigation, that Plavsic had at least possessed the political courage to push through the terms of the Dayton Agreement, which finally led to an end of the blood-letting. She had been indicted for the more serious crime of genocide, which charge had been reduced because of plea bargaining. As her trial draws to a close and sentencing approaches, UN prosecutors will still be exploring using her as a prosecution witness against Slobodan Milosevic, the architect of Serbia’s genocidal policies.

There will, however, be outrage, and understandably so, if this 72-year-old Serbian nationalist’s punishment is slight. She faces a maximum of a life sentence. Some reasonable time in prison, over and above the period she has been held during her trial, is important. Commuting any sentence will make a mockery, not just of the UN war crimes process, but also of all those in Bosnia who grieve for the thousands of lives that her actions destroyed. However, the prize of convicting Milosevic could prove too overwhelming and it may already be that a deal has already been struck. Thus the appearance of someone as high-level as Albright as part of her mitigation plea.

It is already to Plavsic’s credit that she has not used the scoundrels’ defense of Nazis after World War II, that they were only carrying out orders and were powerless to change the wicked policies upon which their government was embarked. She has admitted that she was an active member of the Bosnian Serb government and she has said, with apparent conviction, that she now sees that what she did was utterly wrong.

Any leader confessing to crimes and showing remorse is also having an effect upon the nameless thousands who shared and supported the regime’s policies. Some Bosnian Serbs, for sure, see Plavsic as a traitor, who, when she became president, sold out their cause. But for the majority of ethnic Serbs in Bosnia, and maybe for many other Serbs, their tacit support for the disastrous and wicked policies that filtered down from Belgrade is now a matter of shame. Plavsic’s confession and remorse can thus express their own feelings.

There is unfinished business for the Hague tribunal, not least the capture and trial of Karadzic and others of his group. There is also unfinished business for the ordinary people of the former states of Yugoslavia. Reconciliation is their only way forward. In acknowledging and regretting the awful truth of what happened, Serbs everywhere are taking the first steps towards that healing. Their victims will find forgiveness very hard indeed, but all the communities have to learn to live together again and slowly rebuild the relations that were shattered so horrifically when in 1992 Bosnian Serb guns opened up for the first time on Sarajevo.

 


 

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On poets and pogroms
By Gabriel Ash
YellowTimes.org

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A teapot scandal erupted after Harvard's English Department invited the distinguished British poet Tom Paulin to give a prestigious lecture on campus. Some folks were shocked to discover the things Paulin had said in an interview with an Egyptian magazine. In that interview, Paulin apparently called the Brooklyn-born Jewish fundamentalist settlers in the Occupied Territories "Nazis" and said that they ought to be shot.

From the left, The Nation's Eric Alterman called Paulin's views "disgusting." From the right, Andrew Sullivan labeled them "anti-Semitic." Let's take a close look, beginning with the "Nazi" word. After reading the press, both "liberal" and "conservative," you'd think Nazism and Jewish fundamentalism are miles apart, so many miles apart that comparing them is not merely wrong, but disgusting, anti-Semitic, beyond the pale, etc. You'd be surprised then to learn a few things.

A basic tenet of the Jewish settlers' religious doctrine is that Jews have the duty to conquer every piece of land in "Greater Israel," an ill-defined territory that can stretch as far as Iraq, and includes areas in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. In conquering that area, Jews have a right to kill "every single one" of the inhabitants until "not a memory or trace" remains (these words of love, belonging to Rabbi Yisrael Ariel, appeared in the settlers' principal magazine Nekudah). To turn this political project into the Nazi ideology of Lebensraum, we need but substitute Europe for the Middle East, and Aryans for Jews.

"Transfer," ethnic cleansing, is popular among the general public in Israel as a political "solution." Among the fundamentalist settlers, however, expelling the non-Jewish inhabitants is not a matter of expediency, which would be bad enough. It is rather a divine commandment, rooted in the Bible and Jewish law. But "transfer" is just the tip of the iceberg. Many settlers also believe genocide is a legitimate way of dealing with the "enemy." The right (for the more extreme, actually the religious duty) to genocide is based on the biblical story of the genocide of Amalek (Deut. 25:17-19) on God's orders. Accordingly, Jewish fundamentalists believe "Arabs are the Amalekites of today." Such views are widespread among the Brooklyn-born settlers as well as among their supporters and sponsors.

The root of the fundamentalist settlers' ideology is the belief that Jews are a 'chosen people,' superior to the rest of humanity and free of the moral obligations by which other nations must abide. Non-Jews are viewed as lesser beings. Some "moderate" fundamentalist rabbis do believe that after expulsion/genocide, there will be coexistence. The few remaining non-Jews will then recognize the Jews' superiority and be allowed to live according to the Talmudic laws for the so-called "ger toshav," namely, under severe limitations -- they must not be citizens; they should be prohibited from sexual intercourse with Jews; according to some, they must not own property, etc. This may not be the Nazi race theory letter for letter, but it isn't far off.

Jewish fundamentalists in the U.S. and Israel don't just make racist comments. They also carry out terrorism in God's name. Ateret Cohanim, The Jewish Underground, the Jewish Defense League, Kach, Kahana Khai, Eyal, etc. are among the many groups that planned and/or carried out terrorist attacks against mostly Palestinian civilians from the 1970s onwards. One study shows that in the years 1980-1984, the Israeli press reported 380 attacks against individual Palestinians, leading to 23 deaths, hundreds more against private property, houses, cars, etc. and 41 attacks on Muslim and Christian institutions.

For the years 1988 and 1993, B'tselem reports 62 Palestinians killed by settlers. According to Btselem's 1994 report, "Using weapons supplied by the IDF, individuals and organized groups initiate operations against Palestinians and their property in order to intimidate, deter, and punish. In many cases, these are planned operations, initiated carefully by groups of settlers, who are backed by the established leadership of the settlements. The operations ... include entering villages, shooting at houses and solar water-heaters, sabotage and torching of vehicles, violent disturbances, blocking roads, smashing windows, destroying crops and uprooting trees, harassment of merchants and owners of stands in the market including destruction of their wares, and so forth."

These actions are done with the tacit support of the Israeli police and army. They are pogroms, namely deadly riots organized in collusion with the official authorities. These pogroms are carried out with the wink, wink, nod, nod of the state of Israel, and are often witnessed by indifferent IDF soldiers. Typically, the army refuses to protect Palestinians but does intervene to protect settlers from Palestinians who try to defend themselves against the pogromistas. After Baruch Goldstein's massacre of 29 worshipers at the Ibrahimi mosque, the Israeli army shot another 23 civilians in Hebron and imposed months of curfew on the victims, the civilian Palestinian population of Hebron – they didn't punish Kyriat-Arba, the fundamentalists' den.

During the second Intifada, the pogroms intensified and grew larger. More than 80 Palestinians have been killed by settlers in the last two years. The "official" U.S. press is rarely interested in these pogroms and other violent incidents, some of which have been reported on YellowTimes.org. For example, "Hebron: Not allowed to live," "Settlers roadblocks," "Being a Jewish Fundamentalist," "Settlers carry out a Pogrom," "Gangs terrorize Palestinian villagers with police help," and "Settlers set fire to Palestinian olive fields."

Scholars will surely find subtle differences between these pogroms and those suffered by European Jews at the hand of Nazi gangs and other anti-Semite thugs, but nothing that can justify calling the comparison "disgusting."

The Jewish terrorist groups and their supporters are a minority, but they are hardly a fringe element. Among their supporters they count the leadership of the Gush Emunim settlers' movement. Their pogroms enjoy wide support among settlers and right-wing American and Israeli Jews (check these photos of "moderate" Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert hobnobbing with Genocidal Rabbi Yisrael Ariel at the Temple Institute).

Goldstein, whose tomb has become a shrine, is a hero among the fundamentalist settlers. Iga'al Amir, who assassinated Rabin in 1995, claimed to have acted according to Jewish law. Their actions have been defended and justified by influential rabbis in Brooklyn and Israel, such as Abraham Hecht, Dov Lior and Nahum Rabinovitch.

Rabbi Meir Kahane, leader, chief proponent of Jewish racism, and founder of two terrorist groups, had a regular column for thirty years in the "respectable" Brooklyn-based Jewish Press, an influential publication with print circulation of 160,000. On its webpage the other day, they had an article that prepares the ground for the assassination of Amram Mitzna, the Labor candidate for the coming election in Israel, accusing him of reviving Hitler's "final solution" for Jews.

Some will argue that the Nazi analogy is counterproductive, or that it isn't accurate. I can understand that. It is certainly possible to make ideological and practical distinctions between the Jewish fundamentalist settlers and their American supporters and the original Nazis. The Nazis didn't put such an emphasis on God and his commands. The settlers don't appeal so much to the science of race. But the similarities run much deeper. Both movements are racist, supremacist, totalitarian, anti-humanist, anti-democratic, and extremely violent. Both sanction expansion, conquest, ethnic cleansing, murder, repression and genocide. How on earth can comparing two movements with such glaring similarities be considered beyond the pale of acceptable speech, anti-Semitic, "disgusting," etc.? Why is the U.S. press, which twice a day lectures Saudi Arabia about Wahabism, almost silent about a murderous, totalitarian movement, with deep roots, bases, and funding in America itself?

Paulin, as we remember, also said the fundamentalist settlers from Brooklyn should be shot. Before we look into that, it should be noted that he was, at worst, recommending to serve them a helping of their own porridge. Certainly, people who consider genocide legitimate, organize pogroms and worship mass murderer Goldstein cannot seriously complain that someone wants to shoot them.

Paulin did not make an argument. He simply expressed his outrage at the settlers, using some very harsh words. He hasn't endorsed the murder of children, as Israel's apologist, Nat Hentoff, for example, insinuated. Support for violent struggle isn't support for any and all violence. But the vitriolic detractors of Paulin reveal no interest in intelligent debate about legitimate vs. illegitimate violence.

At the core of Paulin's outrage, there is a simple moral intuition: that Palestinians have a right to shoot at people who cross the ocean in order to destroy their houses and livelihood, expel and kill them. This moral intuition could be rejected. Some pacifists, for example, will reject it because they reject all violence, even in self-defense. We have to respect this position. But the chorus that assaulted Paulin is far from endorsing pacifism. Take Larry Summers, for example. Harvard's president has expressed his displeasure at inviting Paulin to speak at Harvard. Summers doesn't stop at Paulin; he accused of anti-Semitism even people who support divestment from Israel.

But when Summers worked in the Clinton administration, his colleague, Madeleine Albright, told an interviewer that the death of half a million Iraqi children was "worth it," (see FAIR's article). Unlike Paulin, Albright did justify the killing of a mind-blowing number of children. Summers did not resign in protest. He didn't say anything at all. Equally silent was the whole U.S. official media. One wonders what the reaction would have been had Albright said the death of half a million Jewish children was "worth it."

Except for some versions of pacifism, the right to armed struggle against oppression is universally recognized. The doctors of the medieval church recognized the right to rebel against tyranny. The U.N. recognizes the right to engage in armed struggle for self-determination. Thomas Jefferson inscribed into the U.S. Declaration of Independence the right to take up arms against a government that proceeds with "a long train of abuses and usurpations."

Indeed, many Americans believe they have a right to shoot a burglar who intrudes into their house to steal a VCR. How, then, can one deny the right to take arms to people who have, indeed, suffered a 50-year "train of abuses and usurpations," who have been dispossessed and expelled, who live under a vicious military rule for the last 35 years, without human rights, without civil rights, with even their own water taken from them, with sewage running in the non-streets of the world's most overcrowded concentration camps, with soldiers shooting at them at will and settlers, living on their stolen fields, attacking them at will? How is it possible to deny the right of people to take arms against those who work to disappear them?

It isn't possible. And that is why none of those who attacked Paulin has any patience for discussing the rights and boundaries of legitimate rebellion and violence. Instead, they resort to name calling.

Maybe, one could argue, Paulin's comments were not a good occasion to discuss the difference between legitimate and illegitimate violence. The problem is that, apparently, nothing is. Consider this: on November 15, Islamic Jihad launched a successful attack against an Israeli army unit, killing 13 armed soldiers and security personnel. Israeli sources lied about the incident, describing it as an attack on worshipers, allegedly, a "sabbath massacre."

There was no massacre, only a lengthy battle, and it had nothing to do with worshipers. Yet the American media, as well as Bush, Powell, Kofi Annan, and others, bought into Israeli propaganda and condemned the "shocking and reprehensible attack."

The fake "Sabbath Massacre" was a perfect opportunity to discuss the legitimacy of armed struggle. After all, by misrepresenting the attack, Israel implicitly acknowledged its legitimacy. Alterman and Hentoff could have praised Islamic Jihad for their choice of target, or for the zero collateral damage operation. Listening to the sound of the media silence, one fears the notion that brown people have a right to fight off their oppressors has become incomprehensible in the U.S.

[Gabriel Ash was born in Romania and grew up in Israel. He is an unabashed "opssimist." He writes his columns because the pen is sometimes mightier than the sword - and sometimes not. Gabriel is the Middle East Editor of YellowTimes.org's News From the Front, located at the following URL: http://www.YellowTimes.org/nftf.html. He lives in the United States.]

 


 

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President Bush's concerns lie more with Israel or with America?

By Mohamed Khodr

Al-Jazeerah, 12/18/02

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I was disappointed to hear that President Bush declined to provide emergency financial aid to United Airlines in the amount of $1.8 Billion to forestall bankruptcy.  Unfortunately, UAL did go into bankruptcy which will no doubt mean the loss of thousands of jobs to Illinois families.  As you know other airlines are struggling as well.
 
When I came across the article below* which reports that the Bush administration was planning to give Israel Ten Billion dollars (5 times the amount UAL requested) to help support its struggling economy and its unemployed workers, my disappointment turned to shock and outrage that our President is helping a foreign nation that has already received $1.6 Trillion from us in tax dollars since 1973 (according to a recent economic analysis reported in the Christian Science Monitor) rather than helping our struggling economy and our working families.
 
Similarly, President Bush refused to give federal employees their pay raises for 2003 which amounted to $13.6 Billion, yet turned right around and gave Israel $14.0 Billion.  In other words President Bush's concerns lie more with Israel's economy and unemployed than with America's families.  This is an outrage that you in Illinois, the home of United Airlines, as well as the national AFL-CIO, should join with the Federal Employee Union and strongly protest the priority given to Israel over the United States.  Americans will join you if only they were made aware of this outrage in the media and in television advertising.  Our Economy is faltering, our unemployment rate is rising, domestic education, health, and environmental budgets are being cut while tax cuts are to be made permanent for the wealthy, our elderly are without prescription drugs, we have an emergency nursing shortage, our schools and roads are in desperate need of funding, financial aid to colleges is being cut, money to provide heat subsidies to the poor and elderly during this cold winter with rising oil costs are cut, and so much more, yet President Bush's budget priority seems to be Israel's needs and not the needs of the American family.
 
It's time we as Americans demand that our government take care of our needs with our tax dollars and not quietly and stealthily ship it overseas to Israel for political expediency simply due to the power of the Jewish American lobby that seems to outstrip the Labor lobby that's working hard to protect America's families. 
 
It's time to question why our Congress has a sensitive and compliant ear to Israel's interests and not the interest of Illinois families and federal employee families this giving holiday season.  Where are the voices of Illinois' Senators and House delegation on this national outrage?
 
Dr. Mohamed Khodr, is a physician in residing in Virginia. He is a contributing columnist to Al-Jazeerah. 
 

 

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A dilemma for Arabs and Americans alike

By Rami G. Khouri

Jordan Times, 12/18/02

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WASHINGTON, DC — As the United States continues to gear up for a likely strike against Iraq, its policies in the Arab world are promoting two very contradictory trends. One is the expressed desire to promote democracy, pluralism and accountability throughout Arab political governance systems, now backed by tens of millions of dollars in US aid for programmes to this end; the other is the unspoken but active American promotion of more autocratic, often repressive, Arab political governance systems whose pervasive emphasis on maintaining “security” usually leads to political tension and some resort to violence. The contradiction is most obvious here, in the American capital, where the tendency to speak the language of Arab democracy while implementing policies that promote Arab autocracy is largely ignored, primarily because the priority here is purely to promote American emotional, political and strategic goals in the Middle East, regardless of the impact on local conditions.

It has become obvious over the last two months that most Arab governments have not fared very well in their dilemma of how to deal with the massive American military power that is being unsheathed for use against Iraq, which indicates the initial success of the United States' strategic goals in the region. For, it seems to me that the ultimate target of American diplomacy and preparations for attacking Iraq is not Iraq itself, or Iraq alone, but rather a more compliant, acquiescent Arab world whose societies would never again serve as a source of the kind of terror that struck the US in September 2001.

All the Arab countries in theory would seem to face three broad options as they weigh their response to the ongoing show of American power. They can enthusiastically participate in the American assault on Iraq, passively acquiesce in it, or actively resist it. In practical terms, though, the Arab countries do not have any real options at all, for two reasons: either they are highly dependent on the US for economic and military aid or they worry that choosing to resist the US will place them next on the hit-list of regimes to be changed or cultures to be domesticated.

We witness today the unfortunate reality of Arab political de-sovereignisation — the process by which otherwise sovereign Arab governments and states lose their ability to make policy choices that respond to their own majority's sentiment and must rather chose policy options that reflect the preferred line in Washington.

Some Arab states' preference for restricting their citizens' right to express their views and to oppose American, Israeli and Arab government policies leads to greater internal tensions, further anti-Americanism and broad grassroots frustration — a particularly virulent brand of frustration that quickly turns to alienation, radicalisation and even militancy if local economic and political poverty trends combine with the sense of humiliation and powerlessness that ordinary Arabs feel in the face of the use of American and Israeli power. Everybody loses from this dynamic (except perhaps a few arms dealers and equally slick salesmen who profit from marketing US programmes to promote Arab democracy).

Thus, Arab countries as a whole continue to grapple unsuccessfully with the quest for balance between security-based policies and the demand for more vibrant civil society, democracy, political participation and accountability. It is troubling, for example, that public opinion in Arab countries where one is allowed to measure public opinion often shows high support for Osama Ben Laden and other extremists.

I suspect that what we witness here is a convergence of those factors that cause growing frustration and anger among ordinary Arabs — factors that include domestic, regional and international issues that result in greater tension between Arab states and their citizens, as the popular will to express one's sentiments is countered by a more prevalent official Arab policy of curtailing such expression. When these tensions combine with domestic socio-economic disparities, political alienation and the dizzying trend of deteriorating political communication between the modern Arab state and its citizens, we witness the current problematic situation in most Arab countries.

As the United States offers cash grants and impressive promises to promote democracy and pluralism in the Arab world, its actual policies promote precisely the opposite — a more repressive, restrictive political environment in which the perfectly legitimate and peaceful sentiments of ordinary citizens are not allowed to find meaningful expression through credible electoral processes or equal access to all through the mass media. This is an American problem at one level of seeking to promote a coherent, chuckle-proof, foreign policy, but much more of an Arab problem at the level of seeking to develop true security and stability through ensuring the dignity and rights of the citizenry.

 


 

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The reform package of Colin Powell

By Hasan Abu Nimah

Jordan Times, 12/18/02

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COLIN POWELL, in his important policy speech on the Middle East last Friday, drew a depressingly bleak picture of the situation in the region. Its countries and its peoples, their education, their economy, their political institutions, the status of their women, human rights and democracy, all lag behind and need to be reformed, he asserted. He supported his analysis by referring to a recent UNDP report that had earlier this year described the situation as indeed dire. And indeed, everything Powell said is true, but nothing is surprisingly new.

What is new, and also surprising, is this keen interest on the part of the United States to launch now such an “ambitious” three-pronged “partnership” initiative to promote reform in the areas of business and private sector, education and political institutions, including the spread of democracy, human rights and improved rights for women.

On the face of it, the initiative sounds like a “noble gesture”, and an opportune one too, because reform in the Middle East, and specifically democratisation, is urgently required. It is unquestionably the first step towards building healthy societies and healthy institutions in all fields related to human life and social progress.

But there are important questions to be asked. First, why does the US want to commit itself to such a huge, long-term undertaking, while already heavily engaged in a war against terrorism and while actively planning for another, highly risky and vastly costly, war on Iraq? Second, how would such a plan be implemented, and how could the US expect to achieve any meaningful success with a pathetic budget of $29 million for the entire Middle East? Third, how could any planning for reform be possible while the region is submerged in uncertainty and political chaos because of the escalating, beyond control, century-long Arab-Israeli conflict, on the one side, and the awaited devastation and further destabilisation of the region once the US decided to start its attack on Iraq, on the other.

Fourth, how could the US expect to reconcile the distinct contradiction implied in its initiative, as it is crystal clear that the democracy and the political reform, as sought by the “partnership initiative”, will only unleash more hostile anger at the US? Fifth, which model of democracy and what concept of human rights is the Powell initiative going to introduce? Hopefully, it will be neither the model nor the method of “democratising Iraq”, which Powell has in mind.

Too obvious to even need answers, these questions can only indicate, and in no uncertain terms, that the initiative could not be serious and it should be no more than a soothing tranquilliser for the region and its people to maintain, if not improve, a convenient climate for the “peaceful” implementation of the other US designs for the region.

We have, in this region, become quite familiar with similar open-ended, time-buying, pacifying promises which are often too vague to commit those who introduce them to any meaningful, visible or tangible action, while, at the same time, according them the credit of being courageous and forthcoming in recognising and in responding positively to the needs of the region.

While Israel continues to brutalise the Palestinians with impunity and blatant cruelty, all the US, and much of the international community, do is to introduce “plans” and “visions”, much as in the story of the mother in our history who managed to exhaust her hungry children waiting as she was preparing a soup — which could never have been ready as it was no more than gravel and water — stirring until they would fall asleep.

It is indeed a long chain of promises and no fulfilment, made up, since 1947, of countless UN resolutions, peace plans and initiatives of which only those serving the Israeli purposes would be implemented, while the rest would be shelved. Have we not been waiting for 35 years, not for the implementation of the landmark Security Council Resolution 242, but just to find out what exactly it was intended to mean.

Recently, we have been nourishing our fading hopes with the “promise” of the Mitchell Report, then the Tenet understandings, then the Zinni recommendations, then the vision of the secretary of state (in his Kentucky policy speech), then President Bush's famous “vision”, in which he emphasised the principle of a two-state solution as a basic concept for the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This vision of the president was adopted by the Security Council, as it was by the Quartet (the US, the UN, the EU and Russia). The Quartet, of which the US is a prominent member, conducted extensive consultations in the region and with the concerned parties, and held repeated debates until it finally managed to incorporate the “Bush vision” in a peace plan and gave it the distinct title of “road map”. As it was ready to be adopted and launched, the United States declared the plan not ready for adoption. The New York Times quoted some administration officials as saying that the delay resulted partly from heated Israeli objections, and that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has criticised the proposal and asked that the drafting be postponed until after Israel's elections in late January next year. (The New York Times, Steven Weisman, Dec. 13, 2002)

This is the absolute reality amidst the prevailing confusion: Israel dictates and determines the agendas. Ideas can be presented and plans can be worked out. In the end, Israel alone is the one that decides. With the expiry of all the previous peace projects and their pacifying effects, a new plan is required, and here we have the ambitious partnership initiative of turning the region into a utopia of peace, economic prosperity, democracy, social progress, ideal education and respect for human rights.

Admittedly, and quite obviously, the region does indeed need extensive wide-ranging political, social, educational and economic reform, towards which any help should be greatly appreciated and welcome. The basic reason for trailing behind the advancing world is the absence of democracy, which is the primary prerequisite for any progress in any field.

The problem is that any offer to shake the region out of stagnation should be serious and genuine, and it should originate from a source whose credibility in respecting such noble ideals is beyond question. Sadly, the US, seen for long as the champion of freedom, democracy and respect for human beings and their sacred rights is now compromising, if not altogether abandoning, all these values in its frenzied pursuit of political hegemony, its ultimate commitment to protect Israeli violations of all such principles, and its dealing with the negative aspects of the unrestricted utilisation of arrogant military supremacy and the harmful application of double standards.

Unless the promised reform for the region is meant to be, as suspected, a sugarcoat for a bitter pill or a delaying tactic, as the case was with the required Palestinian reform earlier, it should be necessarily preceded by determined effort to deal effectively with the Arab-Israeli dispute.

The writer is former ambassador and permanent representative of Jordan to the UN.

 


 

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Bad dreams

By Gwynne Dyer

Jordan Times, 12/18/02

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I HAD the dream again last night. This time, it was about Orthodox Jews who were praying at the Tomb of the Patriarchs, ambushed in a narrow alley on their way back to their one-square-block “settlement” in the middle of Hebron city. Twelve Israelis are killed, mostly from the military escort that goes with them almost everywhere in Hebron.

That settlement was actually removed after the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Treaty of 1996, but in my dream it is still there today, and there is no Palestinian state. Israelis are still all over what we used to call the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and their gunships are firing rockets into Gaza City in revenge for the Hebron attack. The whole Middle East is on the brink of war. Crazy, I know, but it comes every night.

I used to have another dream like this a long time ago, only then it was about World War III. In that dream, John F. Kennedy was assassinated in early 1962, not late 1963, so Lyndon Johnson was already president when they found the Soviet missiles in Cuba. He blew it, of course.

Johnson was the best US president of the past half-century, as far as domestic affairs were concerned, but he was unsafe at any speed on foreign affairs. Look what he did with the Vietnam War. Well, he did the same with the Cuban crisis, and the missiles flew, and everybody died. Bad dream, but I haven't had it for decades now.

Recently, though, I'm having this weird, highly detailed dream in which Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated before the peace treaty with the Palestinians, not afterwards. Do you recall that incident when a Jewish right-wing fanatic was caught with a pistol at one of Rabin's rallies in November, 1995, long before some of the settlers who were forcibly removed from the West Bank as part of the peace settlement actually shot him down in front of the Knesset in late 1996? Well, in my dream, Rabin is killed by the first guy, before the peace was signed.

I knew Rabin a bit, in the way that journalists get to know the politicians they interview, and he clearly understood that he might be killed if he made peace with the Palestinians. Like Michael Collins making peace with Britain in 1923, that left the Protestant Unionists in control of a quarter of Ireland, he knew that a land-for-peace deal would enrage the no-compromise fanatics, and that they might take revenge by assassinating him.

As they did, both in Collins' case and in Rabin's.

But I don't think it ever occurred to Rabin that he might be killed just for talking about a compromise peace, even before he actually made the deal and closed down the settlements. In the dream, that's exactly what happens — and there is no peace deal. Not then, and not later. It looks at first as if Rabin's heir, Shimon Peres, will win the election after Rabin's murder on a sympathy vote, but then Hamas deliberately pushes the Israeli electorate into the arms of the anti-peace candidate, Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, by carrying out a vicious bus-bombing campaign.

Netanyahu stalls for three years, fending off the feeble pressure from Bill Clinton who occupies the White House for most of the 90s. (I forgot to mention that in my dream George Bush, who would never have let Netanyahu get away with it, lost the US election in 1992.) Then, in 1999, a well-meaning but clumsy general called Ehud Barak wins power back for Labour in Israel and tries to restart real peace negotiations — but by then, Yasser Arafat is even older, sicker and more indecisive, and Barak's own coalition cabinet threatens to fall apart every time he offers to trade concessions with the Palestinians.

Eventually his cabinet does fall apart, and the frustrated Palestinians explode into a new uprising that involves regular suicide bombings against Israeli civilians, and the frustrated Israelis elect Sharon, of all people, to deal with it. (Yes, I know, it's unthinkable that Israelis would let Sharon near power again after all that he has done. But in the dream, they do.)

There's over 3,000 Palestinians and Israelis dead already, and a new Middle East war coming up. Crazy, I know, and it's just not plausible that one man's premature death could change the world so much. (On the other hand, think what would have happened if Kennedy had died early....)

The Middle East of the real world isn't all that great a place, but at least terrorism has died down and a couple of Arab countries are experimenting with democracy. It could be a whole lot worse.

In the dream, it is. And now I can't wake up.

The writer is a London-based independent journalist

 


 

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Are Iraqi exiles meeting in London traitors?

An Arab press review by The Daily Star, 11/18/02

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Are the 350-odd Iraqi opposition leaders who met under US auspices at the Metropolitan Hotel in London for more than three days to hash out a common vision of post-Saddam Iraq “traitors” or “nationalists”?
One Arab columnist calls them nationalists with “noble objectives” and faults Arab governments for having shunned their conference. But most of the other leader writers in the Arab press deem them “traitors” or “collaborators” with the United States.
Beshara Nassar Sharbel, writing in the Saudi-run pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat, says that “the near-total Arab boycott of the conference is not surprising in light of events since Sept. 11. But it is proof of the inability of Arab states and their Arab League to keep in step with momentous events and of their insistence on being sidelined. Kuwait (which was represented at the conference by one of its leading legislators and by a diplomat from its London embassy) was the only exception to the rule.”
The Arab League and its member states, which do not cease talking of the need to restructure the “Arab order” in such a way as to safeguard the pan-Arab nation’s interests, “are committing a grave strategic mistake by closing their eyes to the Iraqi opposition conference and by failing to book themselves a front seat to take stock of the sea change taking place on the Iraqi scene,” he writes.
According to Sharbel, “it is not an overstatement to proclaim that change in Iraq is a stone’s throw away. Despite its tribulations, the London conference, which brought together the main Iraqi opposition groups, was only the opening shot after the kickoff. The fact that the meeting was held under American auspices in the capital of America’s chief ally in the ‘war on terror’ neither detracts from the honesty of the conferees nor takes away from the nobleness of their objectives. The conference brought together (opposition) forces that have deep roots in Iraqi society ­ forces that can do without certificates in nationalism from Arab governments that continue to appease Saddam Hussein.”
Jordanian analyst Uraib Rantawi, writing for the Amman daily Ad-Dustour, says it’s too early to pass definitive judgment on the conference and its outcome. But from what has transpired so far, the conference’s closing statement is most likely to be a rehash of studies prepared in the summer by the military and foreign policy analysts of the US-based Heritage Foundation, who put together a package of specific proposals that can serve as a blueprint for a post-Saddam Iraq.
In keeping with the said blueprint, the conference is most likely to call for a new federal system of governance that must be pluralist, espouses democratic and free-market principles and cooperates in both the war on terror and the elimination of Iraq’s doomsday weapons.
But the problem facing the conference, according to Rantawi, has to do with Iraq’s demographic makeup because the Heritage Foundation said a new postwar federal government must be inclusive of the three major sub-national groups in Iraq (Sunnis who are concentrated primarily in center, and historically have played the dominant role in Iraqi politics; the Shiites, chiefly located in the south; and the Kurds, who primarily control the north), but said the Sunnis and Kurds make up roughly 20 percent each of Iraq’s 23 million people while the Shiites are about 60 percent of
the population.
According to one of the Heritage Foundation studies, “a good political model exists for such a successful postwar Iraqi federation ­ the so-called Great Compromise of 1787 that enabled the creation of America’s constitutional arrangement among the states. In Iraq’s case, this type of system would give each of the country’s three major sub-groups equal representation in an upper house of legislature in order to protect their own interests at the national level.”
But, Rantawi says, “I don’t know how receptive the Iraqis will be to such changes in their political systems and whether the transformation that is being proposed can go unnoticed ­ particularly that Sunni representation at the London gathering was so much lacking that we overheard complaints against Shiite prevalence and about Washington’s friends, who have no grassroots following, having hijacked the conference.”
In his weekly column for the London-based pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, Europe-based Syrian political analyst Ghassan al-Imam writes that “Iraq’s Arabism is being threatened today by a ‘Game of Nations’ being played out by untrustworthy professionals.” He says the only thing that the opposition figures meeting in London have in common is “their hostility to Saddam Hussein.”
Imam complains that “not one voice was raised in the Arab world requesting the conferees to safeguard Iraq’s Arabism. Yes, I honestly empathize with the conferees, but unfortunately they do not represent popular forces from the homefront that have been terrorized by Saddam. They represent factional, sectarian and ethnic opposition forces ­ none of which speaks of Iraq’s Arabism post-Saddam. They have all suddenly turned ‘democrats!’ They are all extending one hand to salute and keeping the other holding a dagger behind their back, ready to stab the person opposite after Saddam’s removal.”
The test for the London conferees, says Imam, “is if they come to an agreement on Iraq’s Arabism ­ democratic and ethical Arabism, one which is not eradicative but interrelates with its Arab and regional milieu, an Arabism that respects Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian sub-groups, allowing them to manage their local affairs and safeguard their ethnic, religious and linguistic identities in the framework of ‘administrative decentralization’ rather than a loose federal system bound to tear Iraq apart and give rise to independent entities and mini-states on racist or religious grounds, a la Israel.”
The true test, Imam continues, is if the conferees decide to set up a government in exile. “True, a government without people or a land base may not be of much use, but it is the only instrument to prove or disprove the ability of opposition groups to coexist and agree a specific democratic system of governance for post-Saddam Iraq,” he believes. “A government in exile is also bound to transform such Iraqi conferences that seem to have no end, into a sort of Parliament comparable to the
Loya Jirga (the forum unique to Afghanistan in which tribal leaders come together to settle affairs of the nation or rally behind a cause), capable of sponsoring dialogue in exile in a framework that allows democratic, partisan and factional diversity.”
Rajeh al-Khoury, in the Lebanese daily An-Nahar, says little has changed in “the impossible missions” that US President George W. Bush assigns to his envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, whose “worries” have shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq.
About a year ago, Khalilzad’s brief was to help bury tribal disputes and rivalries in Afghanistan to a degree which would allow Washington to claim that it has filled the vacuum and that the substitute to the Taleban is the Northern Alliance, which elected Hamid Karzai to office.
What Khalilzad is trying to do now, Khoury argues, is create “from the disparate Iraqi opposition trees a forest that would allow Washington to claim that it has lined up local substitutes to fill the vacuum resulting from the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. But people monitoring the deliberations taking place in the course of assembling the incongruent opposition groups, say that most of Khalizad’s hair will turn gray before he succeeds in discovering an ‘Iraqi Karzai.’”
Khoury ridicules the London conference on several counts, especially when the conferees broke into two groups: one of nearly 330 delegates engaging in propaganda and PR on the hotel’s third floor; and another “secret work group” which sat on the hotel’s 14th floor, where Khalilzad was making the decisions and passing them on to the “Group of Six” ­ the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s Mazoud Barzani, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan’s Jalal Talabani, the Constitutional Monarchy Movement’s Sharif Ali bin Hussein, the Iraqi National Accord’s Ayad Alawi, the Iraqi National Congress’ Ahmed Chalabi and Abdulaziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Assembly for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.
Remarking that the “group from the third floor” was barred from going up to the 14th, Khoury says that “no one doubts that Khalilzad brought the conference resolutions under his arm from Washington.”
But, Khoury says, the big disappointment came when the group heard Khalilzad tell them bluntly that they would only serve as consultants to the US administration and probably to General Tommy Franks, who is likely to become the military governor or high commissioner, and  it won’t be long before they are asked to retire and hand over the controls to a new generation which would undertake to build democracy in Iraq.
“I don’t know how one can talk of post-Saddam democracy,” Khoury writes, “when one man called Zalmay Khalilzad can not only manage an Iraqi Loya Jirga and draft its resolutions and closing statement,” but also ask it to put forward names from which Washington will choose leadership committees that could replace the regime in Baghdad.
Assayed Zahra, in Bahrain’s Akhbar al-Khaleej, calls the conference the “treachery gathering.”
Whoever saw clips of the conferees on television screens, he writes, “would think that those are respectful people engaged in important work. They are very well dressed up and seem to be discussing crucial subjects, but the truth is that they are neither respectful nor worthy of respect. In very simple words, they are traitors. With little money, the US administration brought them together, dressed them to the nines, handed them resolutions and communiques and taught them how to parrot them.”
But Ameen Qammouriyeh, in Lebanon’s  An-Nahar, says it is unfair to brand the Iraqi opposition figures as “collaborators.” A large number of them are undoubtedly committed to their country and their people and they represent groups, parties or factions that have sacrificed, and continue to sacrifice, to build a better Iraq, he writes.
“However, some of those were either coerced or blackmailed by Washington to attend. Another group were driven to show up (in London) by despair of the chances for regime change from within. The fourth joined the conference in the hope of giving an Iraqi ‘touch’ to the nation-building process. A fifth group participated for fear of change coming at its expense or at the expense of whoever it represents. A sixth group rode the wave to secure itself a seat in the proposed state. The seventh group headed to London on the host’s instructions to serve the host’s interests.”
Qammouriyeh says the London conference’s major shortcoming was that it shut out two kinds of major opposition categories ­ those inside Iraq proper, “who are the true liberals” bearing the brunt of internal and external oppression, and those who have sought refuge in countries opposed to the conference such as Syria and Saudi Arabia, for instance.
The second major flaw is the conference venue, because “how can a free Iraqi be confident of his future, if that future is being planned out in Britain under the sponsorship of the United States ­ the two nations which threaten his people every day with war and whose warplanes have not stopped sowing death, destruction and fear in his country over the past decade?”

 


 

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Mofaz leads charge for permanent hostility

The Daily Star, 11/18/02

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Israel has made a bad habit of pre-empting the possibility of reducing tensions in the Middle East, and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz is doing his best to continue that ignominious tradition. The most recent standard for such sinister behavior came last March, when the Jewish state responded to a historic overture from the Arab League by having its troops reoccupy the West Bank. Now, as if the Palestinian and Iraqi crises were not enough to maintain an appropriate level of unease in the region, Mofaz is renewing his threats against Lebanon. For a country that claims it wants to avoid “new fronts,” Israel sure finds a lot of ways to make them more likely.
It takes amazing temerity required for an Israeli defense minister to express fears about an attack from Lebanon. After all, it is not the Lebanese who occupy other people’s land, violate their neighbors’ airspace, willfully block the efforts of international aid agencies, trample UN Security Council resolutions with impunity, and make a mockery of the Geneva Conventions. It is not the Lebanese who possess nuclear warheads and other weapons of mass destruction. It is not the Lebanese whose financier and armorer is gearing up for war against Iraq, even as it issues threats of varying natures against other Islamic countries ­ including its own allies.
Mofaz’s bluster and lack of good taste undermine regional stability in more ways than one. Apart from the specific effect of making the Lebanese-Israeli border that much more tense, they also undermine the general efforts of the international community to keep a lid on the Middle East. Various actors can produce all the “road maps” they want; the “Quartet” can be joined by a “Quintet; Tony Blair can hold talks with every Palestinian who has ever met Yasser Arafat; the Bush administration can sow American, Athenian, and Martian democracy. All of their work will be wasted if and when Israel decides to confirm the suspicions of the many Arabs who believe it will use the world’s preoccupation with Iraq to commit mischief in the Occupied Territories and/or South Lebanon.
An optimist might hope that such an Israeli strategy would be helpful in the long term by demonstrating to the US government just how few goals it has in common with the Jewish state’s current leadership. Unfortunately, however, there is no reason to feel confident that America has gotten any better at identifying and pursuing its own interests in the region, let alone Israel’s. There is considerable danger, therefore, that Israeli adventurism at just the right moment (before, during or after a US-led assault on Iraq) might somehow be met with American approval or at least understanding.
The only people to benefit from that kind of scenario would be those who ­ like Mofaz and his boss, Ariel Sharon ­ thirst not for the “security” about which they so frequently chant but rather for a state of near-perpetual war interrupted only by periods of manufactured trepidation calculated to help justify the resumption of hostilities.

 


 

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The lion prince

By Michael Young

The Daily Star, 11/18/02

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Prince Charles must have looked wistfully at Bashar Assad yesterday. Of the two heirs, the Syrian president got the better deal. He’s only thirty-something and doesn’t have to talk about architecture all the time.

In fact, on Monday Assad talked about Hamas and Islamic Jihad, remarking: “Of course we don’t have in Syria what are called organizations supporting terrorism. We have press officers.” The doublespeak backfired in the face of Tony Blair’s more substantial announcement that he would host a conference next month to help Palestinians prepare for a viable state.
Though Syria will not be participating, Assad can register Blair’s initiative as a minor success. It endorses the Syrian view that the Iraqi crisis is distracting attention away from the main issue in the region: the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
This point was made recently in a Los Angeles Times opinion piece by the Syrian Foreign Ministry’s Bouthaina Shaaban ­ an uncompromising version of fellow literature teacher Hanan Ashrawi: “At this particular time, Iraq is only a diversion that may allow (Ariel) Sharon to flex his muscles and use his hundreds of tanks and missiles on unarmed Palestinians.”
What Assad will want to remember less was how he contributed to spoiling Blair’s efforts to launch a regional initiative last year, as a counterweight to Washington’s focus on terrorism. At a joint press conference in Damascus, Assad embarrassed Blair by criticizing US military efforts in Afghanistan and reaffirming Syrian support for the Damascus-based Palestinian press officers.
Assad has changed since then, thanks to the onset of war in Iraq. Yet while Blair’s initiative is welcome, it will not entirely satisfy the Syrians. When they want to address regional talks, they prefer Washington to London. And the Bush administration is said to have rebuffed Assad on presently committing itself to a comprehensive settlement that includes the Golan.
Assad does have room to maneuver. The Americans are of two minds on their “road map” to peace, which they are formulating with their “Quartet” partners. There are some in Washington who would prefer delaying issuing the details of the plan until after the Israeli elections. The Quartet partners, however, are pressing for the details to be released this Friday.
The Syrians can plainly see the road map is stumbling. They can also guess that it will soon be overtaken by a war in Iraq, and that regional dynamics at the end of the conflict might make the plan obsolete. That’s Assad’s hope, since he would ideally like a Madrid II format to resume regional talks, on condition Israel respects its prior commitments.
Assad must be speculating about his fortunes after an Iraq war. Blair provided no assurances that war will be averted. The likelihood is that the US will issue a statement this week describing the colossal Iraqi weapons report as a dud. Britain has indicated it shares this view. In that context, Assad’s visit to London must have been Blair’s way of bringing the Syrians on board before any future UN action.
This puts Assad in a fresh dilemma. The Syrians argue that a new UN resolution is required to authorize force against Iraq. Their calculation is that the French, the Russians and the Chinese will demand unmistakable evidence before voting for a military operation, making war less probable.
The problem is that almost everybody will abandon that premise as soon as they see that war is inevitable, and that they can gain more by accepting it. If a new resolution is brought to the Security Council, and the US might agree to do so, the Syrians will have no option but to vote in favor.
In London Assad was also, in effect, being invited into the bargaining over a postwar Iraq. The Syrians can be hardnosed when their interests are at play. Assad must have welcomed the chance to enter the Iraqi bazaar, even while some of his subordinates turn lachrymose when war is mentioned.
Less clear is Assad’s position on the Damascus-based Palestinians. The consensus is that he will leave them be for the moment. He might, however, act against specific officials to purchase breathing space in Washington.
Breathing space is all Assad has these days. With an Iraq war looming and Syria expected to pay a political and economic price in the aftermath, the president will take all the successes he can get. Tony Blair gave him a chance to be part of a future consensus on postwar Iraq. Assad is likely to accept.

 


 

 

 

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Fear and loathing on the King Hussein Bridge

Daoud Kuttab

The Daily Star, 11/18/02

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What began as a temporary procedure aimed at averting the possibility of a mass Palestinian exodus is turning into an uncontrollable policy that is souring Jordanian-Palestinian relations. For nearly a year now Jordan has imposed tight measures on the crossing of Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza Strip into Jordan. The King Hussein Bridge on the River Jordan is for most Palestinians the only available passage point out of Palestine.
Like any sovereign country, Jordan has the full right to declare and execute whatever policy it sees fitting for its national security and interests. But the special relationship between those living on either bank of the river Jordan requires that whatever policy is implemented is transparent and void of bureaucracy, red tape, delays and human suffering.
When first implemented, the declared policy of Jordan was that Palestinians who had medical needs, educational goals or were traveling through Jordan were to be exempted from the new procedures. All others had to obtain a special permit based on a financial bond that Jordanian relatives of the person intending to visit signs at the Interior Ministry in Amman. A special committee of security officers set up offices at the Jordanian entry point on the bridge. Travelers would wait for hours as these police officers, who had little resources, were entrusted with deciding who enters and who is rejected. Much was left to the private interpretations of the officers, the convincing abilities of the travelers and most of all to those travelers who had wasta (influence).
Despite the fact that there is no tangible sign that there is any discernible Palestinian emigration, the procedure at the King Hussein Bridge has been gradually getting more and more difficult to the average Palestinian.
It is true that in their desperation to travel, for business, pleasure or for simple family meetings, some Palestinians might have used strange and unusual tricks in order to circumvent these regulations and to obtain the approval of these security officials at the bridge.
The Palestinian population and the unknown security officials seem to have gotten into a game of cat and mouse, with Palestinians finding loophole after loophole in this temporary and ill-planned policy as the Jordanians respond by adding yet more complications and restrictions. And while for the most part Palestinians with money or connections seem to have no problem crossing the bridge, the average Palestinian who has legitimate reasons to come to Jordan or travel via Jordan is the one suffering the most.
A serious reconsideration of the entire procedure at the bridge is badly needed.
Such a review must take into account the need for serious Palestinian-Jordanian cooperation. If the aim is to limit or avert the possibility of mass emigration, then surely the Palestinian leadership must have interests similar to the Jordanians’? And since almost all Palestinians coming to Jordan (except East Jerusalemites) must exit from Jericho, which is supposedly under full Palestinian Authority control, then any limitation to travel can start before Palestinians venture all the way into Jordanian territory.
A review of this policy requires much more transparency. The Palestinian public must be well informed of the procedures that they need to follow in order to obtain permission to enter Jordan. Procedures need to be announced using both the Jordanian and Palestinian media. This would save much trouble and pain for Palestinians who suffer in their attempts just to get to the Jericho crossing. Furthermore, after a long wait on the Jordanian side of the bridge they are returned because they are missing correct papers or because the papers that were acceptable last week are not acceptable this week.
A much simpler procedure to solve this problem would be to give the Jordanian diplomatic mission to Palestine the right to issue a permit similar to a visa. Throughout the world diplomatic missions carry out such activities. They are much more qualified to check the authenticity of a Palestinian document than a Jordanian security officer. This would make it much easier for Palestinians who can easily come to the Gaza or Ramallah missions and make their applications, sign the documents and pledges and wait while their application is processed. Once ready they can travel without harassment or long delays. Furthermore it is very difficult and embarrassing for Palestinians to ask their relatives to put up the bond for them and to suffer the procedures and delays.
Such suggestions might be opposed on many fronts because it might put a distance between Palestinians and Jordanians. But formalizing the process would reduce the chaos of the current situation. Upon crossing into Jordan most Palestinians on the bus that I often travel would breathe the fresh air of freedom once seeing the first Jordanian policeman. For the past year, they have felt fear that they will be turned back after seeing the first Jordanian policeman.
Of course, the more appropriate policy would be simply to rescind the procedures of the past year and return to the  open bridge  policy that worked successfully for over 30 years.

Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian analyst

 


 

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Hawks poised to pick Baghdad's bones
By Linda Heard, Gulf News, 18-12-2002
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The United Nations was guilty of un-professionalism last week, and that is putting it politely. While it operates ostensibly as an international body, representing the interests of its member states, the alacrity with which it handed over the original 12,000-page Iraqi report on its weapons of mass destruction (or lack of them) to the U.S. was almost indecent.

Nations such as Syria and Norway did express outrage at this blatant favouritism but their voices were soon drowned out. What would the reaction have been if, say, China or Russia had received the document one full day before the other permanent members of the Security Council?

Strangely, Washington condemned the report as being full of holes even before its experts had had the opportunity to turn back its covers. Although, White House spokespersons such as Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and even George Bush himself have reiterated on numerous occasions that war is not inevitable and all that Iraq has to do is abide by Resolution 1441, American actions tell a completely different tale.

The Pentagon has shipped tens of thousands of American troops and equipment to its two bases in the Qatari desert where it has been conducting 'war games'. Reports out of northern Iraq indicate that the U.S. military is already working with Kurdish militias, and Washington is pushing Recip Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Turkey's ruling AKP Party, for the use of Turkish bases and airspace during any upcoming conflict.

Membership carrot

America went as far as holding out the carrot of EU membership to Turkey in return for cooperation over Iraq, but this backfired with EU Commissioner Chris Pattern suggesting that perhaps the EU should reciprocate by offering Mexico membership of the U.S.. This is not a view taken by Prime Minister Tony Blair who is known for constant kowtowing to America's diktats and support of its Iraq policy.

Both Blair and the Bush regime are anxious to find fault with the Iraqi government, which, thus far, hasn't put a foot wrong as far as the inspectors are concerned. On the contrary, it has extended itself to ensure smooth, hassle-free inspections.

However, during a routine visit to an Iraqi centre for communicable disease control last Friday, there was a slight hiccup caused by a few locked doors.

The American media immediately launched into a feeding frenzy. It was 'breaking news' on all the networks. They made it sound oh, so sinister that employees of the centre were, no doubt, enjoying their weekend and had taken the keys to their offices home with them.

Fabricated scenario

As anyone who lives in the Arab world would attest, it would have been even stranger if the inspectors had found every office open on Islam's holy day. After a flurry of telephone calls, someone turned up with a hand drill and it was a case of all's well that ends well. It isn't hard to imagine some of the Washington hawks muttering, 'Aw shucks. Foiled again' in response.

It is hardly surprising that Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and other Iraqi officials have made statements to the effect that the current inspections are nothing but a sham, a fabricated scenario destined to eventually provide the pretext for a U.S. attack.

In the meantime, the US military is all set to receive vaccinations for smallpox - a deadly and virulent disease, which has long been eradicated from the face of the earth. American first responders have the option of being vaccinated too and George W Bush has 'heroically' offered to stand alongside his men and women in uniform and submit to the jab.

Israelis too are lining up for smallpox vaccinations and equipping themselves with gas masks.
An assessment prepared by Paul Jabber for the U.S. National Intelligence Council in December last year, suggests: "… if Saddam is to be dislodged by military force, a massive air campaign will need to be mounted that will bear the major burden of destroying Iraq's military assets, internal security apparatus, and installations that are known or suspected of having WMD potential.

"Clearly, such a campaign runs the risk of inflicting serious collateral damage on the civilian population and the country's economic infrastructure. Perhaps more ominously, it may unleash lethal biological, chemical or nuclear agents locally and regionally in the course of destroying them."

Six Iraqi opposition groups seemingly care little about the devastating effect that a full-scale war might have on their countrymen and, instead, are eagerly preparing for a Saddam-free Iraq. Their combined future role was discussed in a London hotel last weekend.

In the Iraqi capital, the long-suffering people are almost resigned to the thought of an imminent war. Most are fatalistic. The middle-aged have survived wars with Iran and Kuwait and the young have lost educational opportunities and witnessed the death of their children and siblings due to 10 years of punishing U.S./UK-led sanctions. If the Bush administration has its way, their suffering is far from being over.

After a catalogue of failures, the U.S. is still trying to come up with a link between the Iraqi regime and Al Qaida. Bush recently claimed that top Al Qaida lieutenant Abu Musaab Al Zarkawi - who Germany says heads up Al Qaida's European operation - was a patient in a Baghdad hospital and now operates out of Iraq.

There have also been unsubstantiated accounts in American newspapers that Iraq has sold large quantities of VX nerve agent to Al Qaida members. The various articles were jam-packed with innuendo, statements from anonymous officials and lacked any credible substance.

Occupation

But with war with Iraq now looming large on the cards, the Bush administration isn't one to rest on its laurels. It is already setting up a post-Iraqi occupation war plan, which could involve Iran.

Already accusations are flying out of Washington that Iran has built two suspicious nuclear facilities, although Mohammed Al Baradei, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has explained that he has known about these constructions for some time and has been invited to view them early next year.

Naturally, once General Tommy Franks, Commander in Chief of the U.S. Central Military Command, and his merry band are ensconced in Iraq, they will be perfectly positioned to set their sights on 'freeing' the Iranian people too. Secretary of State Colin Powell is working the psychological front and he indicated that it was the U.S. policy to assist in democratising the region.

Ironically, North Korea, which openly admits to having a nuclear weapons' programme is not being aggressed by Washington. After America's recent stoppage of fuel shipments to the North and the recent debacle over the illegal seizure by Spain and the U.S. of its vessel the So San, North Korea is determined to look after its own interests. Yet, despite the clear and present danger here, the Bush administration holds up the principle of negotiation as being the way forward.

Genuine motive

This, is, of course, the best way forward but if limiting weapons of mass destruction is the genuine motive for America's stance vis-à-vis Iraq, one can only wonder why Baghdad can look forward to bombs rather than discussion. Of course, there is one major difference here. Iraq boasts the second largest oil deposits in the world, while North Korea's claim to fame is being one of the poorest of the world's nations.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri sent a letter to Kofi Annan last Saturday pointing out that allied planes had violated Iraqi airspace on 1, 141 occasions between November 9 and December 6. Sabri's appeal is destined to fall on deaf ears.

Due in part to the Bush administration's bellicosity, the world is becoming ever more hostile. The Clinton White House looks positively benign in retrospect. Those were the days of South Korea's Sunshine Policy, willingness on the part of Israelis and Palestinians to implement the Oslo Accords, and amicable dialogue with Tehran.

Iraq was then hopeful of getting the sanctions lifted and rejoining the world community and Western economies were booming. What a difference just two short years can make. For some it's the difference twixt life and death.

Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs.


 

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Musharraf yet to fulfil promise of reforms
By Husain Haqqani , Gulf News,  18-12-2002
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Two seemingly unrelated developments over the last few days bring into question the intentions of Pakistan's present military oligarchy, which continues to present itself as a reforming regime working towards a transition to democracy.

The first was the release of Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar, ostensibly under the orders of a court. General Pervez Musharraf banned Jaish earlier in the year for being a terrorist organisation.

Maulana Azhar was reluctantly put under house arrest after much pressure from the United States, on account of his public advocacy of suicide bombings and his statement accepting responsibility for last year's October 1 attack on the legislative assembly building in Srinagar.

The court ordering his release said the government had failed to make the case for his continued detention under the Public Safety law, raising the question whether the government really wanted to keep him detained.

After all, once it decides to keep someone in prison, the Pakistani government can find a hundred ways to attain its objective. Asif Ali Zardari, husband of exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, has obtained bail from various courts several times only to face continued imprisonment on a new charge. 

General Musharraf purged the superior courts soon after his 1999 military coup under his Provisional Constitution Order and the courts have been virtually subservient to the executive ever since.

Pakistan's prosecuting authorities have never been independent of political decisions, making Maulana Masood Azhar's case all the more troubling. If General Musharraf and his government did not have evidence to consider Jaish-e-Muhammad a terrorist organisation, why did they ban it? And if such evidence does exist, why was it not used to extend Maulana Azhar's detention.?

The second recent manifestation of the disturbing trend of General Musharraf's policies was the 'election' of the new Sindh Chief Minister. The Sindh assembly was convened 62 days after its election, the longest delay in the convening of any provincial assembly in the country.

The provincial government was cobbled together by the Intelligence services, which brought disparate elements and individuals together to deny the single largest party in the province, the PPP, the right of trying to form a coalition.

To accommodate the demands of the largest coalition partner, the Mutahhida Qaumi Movement (MQM), terror was unleashed against its local rival and breakaway group, the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (commonly known as MQM-Haqiqi). Both groups of the MQM have, at different times, been considered as proteges of the establishment in its effort to limit the PPP's influence in Sindh.

Police besieged the assembly building soon after the assembly was convened to arrest a Haqiqi legislator. By all accounts, the new Sindh government is likely to follow in the footsteps of a similar anyone-but-PPP regime unleashed on the province between 1990-1993. The then Chief Minister, Jam Sadiq Ali, was handpicked by the Intelligence services in the same manner as Ali Mohammed Maher has been chosen.

Lacking any substantive political following, Jam Sadiq Ali presided over a reign of terror bereft of any semblance of adherence to the law or constitution. Then as now, the majority within the coalition belonged to the urban-based Urdu-speaking MQM, which was accused of controlling Sindh's cities with the help of its private militia.

It is obvious that notwithstanding his promises to his U.S. allies, General Musharraf's overall game plan for Pakistan is not different from that of his predecessors. He considers civilian politicians like Bhutto a greater threat than leaders of groups that he has himself named as militants.

He has no interest in allowing politics as usual, enabling politicians to negotiate with each other and making decisions for which they can subsequently be held responsible by the electorate.

The military establishment's invisible fixers, who were not that invisible during the horse-trading in Sindh, continue to muddy Pakistan's political water. But the military and its apologists routinely deny they have anything to do with whatever is going on. They want the world to believe that the court released Masood Azhar and that the political wheeling and dealing is the handiwork of the politicians.

Even though General Musharraf and his team are calling all shots, any and all blame for the resultant chaos will invariably be laid at the doorstep of politicians as has been the case for the last several decades.

Behind-the-scenes manipulation of the political system does not make it easy to hold accountable those truly responsible for bad decisions.  
   
Soon after he assumed power, General Musharraf managed to convince many Pakistanis of his good intentions. Over the last three years, he has not been an easy man to define. He rules by decree while professing to build a democracy. He supported the Taliban only to become famous for his role in their destruction. He seeks dialogue with India without hiding his belief that India is Pakistan's eternal enemy. He enjoys and clings to power while claiming he came to it by accident.

In a recent interview he revealed that Richard Nixon and Napoleon are his leadership models.
Perhaps that is the most telling revelation about him. Neither Nixon nor Napoleon was known particularly for following rules as for them ends justified their means. And the end for both of General Musharraf's leadership models was none other than wielding and accumulating power.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appointed General Musharraf Pakistan's army chief in 1998, choosing him over two senior generals because he did not see him as a potential coup-maker. Within a year of his appointment, General Musharraf had overthrown Sharif in a military coup.

According to General Musharraf, the military took over because Sharif tried to replace him as army chief while he was on his way back from a trip to Sri Lanka. Sharif was even tried for plotting to kill Musharraf by refusing to let his plane land in Pakistan.

Now, three years later, it seems that the 'reluctant coup maker' was part of the myth General Musharraf wanted to create about his personality. He promised reform and a swift return to democracy. He also cultivated the image of being a straightforward soldier who speaks his mind.

But that image has been shattered by the manner in which he held a fraudulent referendum in April, amended Pakistan's constitution by decree in August to consolidate his power, and the recent political machinations to create a pliant civilian façade for his regime.

General Musharraf has so far ruled with the help of a small group of close military friends. He has avoided a reputation for repression and has allowed a relatively free press. But he does not believe in legal niceties if and when he needs to get tough.

General Musharraf demonstrated his willingness to take risks by abandoning support for Afghanistan's Taliban and took on Pakistan's own Islamists. But his promises of reform remain unfulfilled and he seems to be going back on most of his promises.

Some attribute his failure to an instinct for survival not backed by any clear set of beliefs. It is Pakistan's misfortune that he has turned out to be just another military ruler who thinks all is well as long as he is in charge.

Just as Pakistan is still reeling under the impact of changes in society introduced by General Ziaul Haq, the consequences of General Musharraf's rule will also come to haunt the country for years to come.

The writer is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. He served as adviser to Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto and as Pakistan's ambassador to Sri Lanka.


 

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