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Experts warn of costly Battle of Baghdad By Francis Temman WASHINGTON — While the public worries how long the Iraq war will last, military experts are focusing on whether the United States has taken enough military muscle and machinery to conquer Baghdad. Many are worried that the Battle of Baghdad will be “messy” and leave a casualty toll that could shock the rest of the world. Experts are also divided on the tactics that should be pursued to oust President Saddam Hussein. “The real challenge will be the reduction of Baghdad, how to take the city without destroying it and punishing its population,” Lieutenant General Thomas Rhame, who was commander of the 1st Infantry Division during the 1991 Gulf War, told AFP. In the absence of clear indications from US generals about what they plan for Baghdad, there are several battle scenarios. According to Rhame, a “light infantry takedown” would be best. “Hopefully it will not include tanks and armoured vehicles because the objective here is not to destroy the city but to save it.” Another option could be a siege of the Iraqi capital and its population of five million people. But Jay Farrar, a military expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said the US does not want to surround the city. “As as strategy, it's too slow, ugly and counterproductive,” he said. Farrar believes US Special Forces are already operating in Baghdad gathering intelligence for the looming battle. The nightmare scenario for most experts is President Saddam using “fortress” Baghdad tactics, bringing his 20,000 elite Republican Guards and the 40,000 Fedayeen militia headed by his son Uday. Farrar said the US cannot afford to let the surrounded regime remain in control of Baghdad for a long time. “You've got to end it at some point and you have to find a way to end it.” Thomas McInerney, a retired Air Force general and former deputy chief of the joint chiefs of staff, does not believe there will be a Battle of Baghdad. McInerney, said US and British forces cannot afford a battle against a city defended by the Republican Guard. “Why go into Bagdad? I am not hoping for a popular uprising. I am waiting for Iraqi mothers to call their sons and tell them: `Come home now.' “I am waiting for a war of will. I don't believe they have the will and we have the time.” Farrar of the CSIS said the invaders could isolate President Saddam and his leaders and “show the Iraqis that there is no hope” and force them to negotiate a surrender. “But the special Republican Guard and whatever Fedayeen are the hard core of Saddam's reign of terror, are they going to surrender without some guarantee that they will survive?” he questioned. What worries all the experts is the human cost of the operation. Daryl Press, a professor at the Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University, said that if the Iraqi forces fight “skilfully” there could be between 1,000 and 2,000 dead among the US and British forces just in the Baghdad campaign. “Even if a battle for Baghdad `only' claims several hundred coalition lives, it would be terrifying for the combatants and horrifying to watch on television,” Press warned. “Coalition infantry companies that are ordered to clear well-defended buildings, or that are caught in ambushes, will pay dearly. And the number of injuries will be several times higher than fatalities. Soldiers will be taken prisoners,” he said. And none of the experts are expecting the battle to start soon. Farrar said he did not expect any fighting around Baghdad before mid-April. But he warned: “This is going to be pretty messy, to say the least. It's been messier so far than most in the press and the public thought it would be. And it's going to get messier.”
Opinions expressed in various sections are the sole responsibility of their authors and they may not represent Al-Jazeerah's.
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