By Richard H. Curtiss

There is good news for Palestinians from recent opinion polls. Most polls from the United States, Europe, and even Israel, show growing support for a Palestinian state. US numbers increasingly resemble European polls as Americans become more conscious of what the Israelis have done in the occupied territories.

Let’s start with a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted from June 7 to 8. For the first time since last October, a plurality of Americans, 43 percent, said the United States supports Israel too much, while 40 percent said Israel gets the right amount of support. The poll showed only 10 percent felt the United States supports Israel too little, with the remaining percentage unsure. The Gallup Poll was conducted in telephone interviews with 800 adults with a margin of error of 3 percent.

Gallup characterized the figures in its latest poll as a “significant decline in a pro-Israeli point of view.” It compared the new figures with a similar poll conducted in October 2001. Eight months earlier only 29 percent of Americans thought the United States supported Israel too much, while 58 percent said Israel received the right amount of support, and 9 percent felt Israel received too little support.

The same week that the Gallup Poll results were released, an Anti-Defamation League survey appeared. This annual poll showed an increase in American anti-Semitism in the wake of the Sept. 11 terror attack. The ADL poll found that 51 percent of respondents believed that the Bush administration had tilted too far in favor of Israel. Nearly 42 percent of Americans, characterized as the anti-Semitic sample, also said they believed that American Jewish leaders have too much influence over US foreign policy. Only 11 percent of Americans who were described as holding no anti-Semitic feelings felt Jewish leaders had too much power.

An ABC News poll on June 21-23 asked the following question. “Thinking about the Mideast: Do you think there should or should not be an independent Palestinian nation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip?” At least 45 percent agreed there should be a Palestinian state, 20 percent said there should not, and 35 percent didn’t know. A CBS poll asked 685 adults nationwide the same question on July 8-9, 2002, with a similar result. Some 40 percent favored a Palestinian homeland, 31 percent opposed it, and 29 percent didn’t know. When compared to a similar survey conducted in October 1991, the numbers had noticeably improved. In 1991 only 33 percent favored a Palestinian state, 46 percent opposed it, and 21 percent didn’t know.

Another CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on June 21-23, 2002 asked, “Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank if the Palestinian government demonstrates that it can end the suicide bombings in Israel?” A whopping 74 percent of Americans said they favored a Palestinian state.

In contrast to American public opinion polls, British respondents are considerably more sympathetic to Palestinians. In April 2002, Britain’s Guardian newspaper found that twice as many British voters favored Palestinians as compared to Israelis in the Arab-Israeli conflict. This Guardian/ICM opinion poll also noted that only a minority of British voters have a firm view on the issue, with 28 percent backing the Palestinians and 14 percent supporting Israel. For while those who have a committed view of the Middle East conflict tilt toward the Palestinian cause, the ICM survey also showed that the overwhelming majority of British voters take a more neutral approach.

The British findings mark a sea change in British attitudes toward the Middle East over the past 20 years, according to the April 24 Guardian report. They are in line with recent polls in France, Germany and Italy which show that European public opinion is generally more sympathetic to the Palestinians. A majority of British voters, 52 percent, also agreed that the US could do more to bring about a peace settlement. Only 35 percent said they believed the Americans were doing as much as they could.

Some Israeli polls results are closer to European public opinion than they are to American. The majority of Israelis support the creation of a Palestinian state, according to a Nov. 23, 2001 Gallup Poll. The poll findings in Israel’s Ma’ariv newspaper showed that 59 percent of Israelis support the creation of a Palestinian state, with just 36 percent opposed. Some 73 percent of the 544 Israeli adults questioned said they believed that a Palestinian state would emerge, regardless of their views.

European support for Palestinians has steadily increased over the years, especially as the expected Palestinian state has failed to materialize. Most pollsters, even in the United States, are finally noting an increase in support for Palestinians. There is, of course, a temporary dip in the rising polls whenever a major suicide bombing occurs. Americans, like their Israeli counterparts, briefly blame Palestinian leadership for every violent setback.

The good news is that while American public support for Palestinians is still not as pronounced as European, it is growing as more Americans become aware of the Palestinians’ plight. The bad news is that President George W. Bush’s Middle East advisers don’t seem to be paying any attention to the changes in American public opinion.

— Richard H. Curtiss is the executive editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs